HappyDays

Yeah and I think that Patriots team today wouldn't come close to winning it all. That was the end of an era for the NFL where a strong running game and a good defense was enough to win a Super Bowl. Then in quick succession Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert all came onto the scene. The NFL collectively decided to let offensive lines hold. We're in a new era now. If you don't have the horses on offense, you're on the outside track. And that Patriots team probably wouldn't have made it to the Super Bowl to begin with if Dee Ford hadn't jumped Offside. I know you can find those examples in every game, but that year was a good example of the transition I'm talking about. A young Mahomes with an elite offensive supporting cast almost knocked off a dynasty at the end of its run.

2000 is ancient history. So is pretty much every year before the latest generation of elite QBs. In 3 of the 4 seasons the Super Bowl winner has had a pass catcher in the top 8 of receptions. 2022 - Chiefs - Kelce #3 2021 - Rams - Kupp #1 2020 - Bucs - Evans #33 2019 - Chiefs - Kelce #8 These days there are too many elite QBs. An offense needs an edge somewhere else. In recent years that edge has been pass catchers, and to somewhat of a lesser extent the offensive line.

That's what I addressed in the last part of my post. I don't know if it's feasible to pay a true WR1 and WR2 at the same time. But irrespective of that it is hard to argue with the evidence that a very good and versatile #2 is seemingly a necessity for a Super Bowl contender. It's hard to figure out a solution to that problem in October. I hope Beane will try though.

I'm a huge fan of Kincaid and I think he has a great future here. But I want our #2 to be someone that can be relied upon if a defense takes away Diggs. Not to the same caliber as Diggs obviously, just enough so that our offense isn't totally handicapped in those situations. I haven't seen anything from Kincaid so far that makes me think he can be that guy yet. Right now he is a role player, not someone we can funnel the offense through.

So JuJu was somewhat of an outlier in the group I'm talking about. I went back and found my examples of #2 pass catching targets in the last 6 Super Bowls: JuJu Smith-Schuster Devonta Smith Tee Higgins OBJ Chris Godwin (in an almost dead heat with Rob Gronkowski) Tyreek Hill Tyreek Hill Deebo Samuel Julian Edelman Brandin Cooks Zach Ertz Rob Gronkowski Again, I don't think there's any reasonable disagreement that the above players were better pass catchers than Gabe Davis in those respective seasons. The difference with JuJu is he was a cheap FA signing. Most of the players on that list were drafted by that team. The Chiefs kind of got lucky, because of course they did. They signed a previously very good but oft-injured WR to a 1 year prove it deal and it paid off big time. We signed Jamison Crowder and got nothing. I hear you on the big WR2 contract. With Allen and Diggs it probably isn't feasible. We have simply neglected the position in the draft. But my point has been that every team who makes it to the Super Bowl in recent history has had not just a top tier #1 pass catcher, but a very good #2 as well. We are lagging behind in that area.

Tyler Boyd, Josh Palmer, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Diontae Johnson all finished top 40 in yards last year. I would classify all of them as #3 WRs. Davis's TDs are what elevate him to high-end #3 for me. I'm not trying to trash him as player, I understand his skill set is valuable especially with Josh at QB. But he isn't versatile enough to be a full time #2. He is getting 4.5 targets per game this season. Those are #3 target numbers, not #2, especially in a high volume passing offense. JuJu isn't a top receiver. But he can run all of the routes. He can separate in different ways. He was not a high end #2 last year but he was playing like a true #2. Davis at this point is very boom or bust. High YPC, high TD per catch, low separation efficiency, low catch percentage (although it has been better this year as a result of his lower targets per game). I think next year Davis will get the Edmunds treatment. He'll be overpaid by a dumb team and within a few weeks he'll be putting up very modest production and have that team's fans questioning his contract.

I said in the game thread both of the first two drives were great defensive scheme and play calls. We got our hands on a few balls and made Tua go past his first read. The players just didn't take advantage of those opportunities at first. Once they did, the defensive onslaught began. I have criticized both McDermott and Dorsey at various times over the past couple years. This was by far the best coached game either one of them have ever had. P.S. This was your best "Few Thoughts" yet. Thank you for doing these whenever the mood strikes.

With respect to the DL, I think Milano and Bernard are far and away the #1 reason for our defensive shutdowns over the past 3 weeks. Honorable mention to Taron Johnson. Our 2nd level is the best in the league and it isn't close. They're getting their hands on a lot of balls and they aren't letting anyone get past them.

I've posted the examples before, not gonna go back now and find them again. But if you look at the #2 target pass catcher on each of the last 12 teams to participate in the Super Bowl, every one of them has been a better player than Davis. JuJu Smith-Schuster is probably the worst of that group and he had a 1,400 yard season not that long ago. By the time playoff football rolls around you're bound to face a defense that takes away your #1 guy. So who steps up? Right now for the Bills I'm not confident in anybody to be that answer. But Allen and Diggs individually and as a combo are playing the best football of their lives right now. If they keep it up and the pass protection continues to impress, I could see us being the exception. January is a long way away though. It's still a nagging concern in my mind.

His targets per game is down. Last year 6.2 targets per game, this year so far 4.5 targets per game. That is a substantial difference - over a 17 game season it's 29 less targets. He is playing like a really good #3 WR right now IMO. With his targets coming down he has become more efficient which should have been the goal coming into the season. If he ends up at 4.5 targets per game, that will put him in the same company (going off of 2022 statistics) as players like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool, Alec Pierce, Michael Gallup... I think Davis is at least slightly better than all of those players so I would call him a high-end #3. It remains to be seen if an offense can sustain a Super Bowl run without a true #2, but with Allen and the defense playing as well as they have over the past three weeks it may be enough to overcome that handicap.

Crazy part is he is still only 17 years old!

🤔

That is just an awful throw. Giants made a huge mistake running it back with Jones and Barkley. They should have taken a page out of McBeane's book, use the good will of an unexpected playoff season to tear it all down and go all in on a franchise QB. Now they've made the cardinal sin of having a bad season and nothing for fans to feel optimistic about.

On Rousseau - I'm told it's a foot injury, not sure exactly what kind. There was a moment near the end of the 2nd quarter where his foot was stepped on and you can see him look at his foot funny and kind of shake it, my source says this is likely when the injury occurred. He played the rest of the game though so hopefully that's a sign that it is minor.

I just looked at the PFF grades for this game. Any time I want to start giving PFF more credence I just can't do it, some of the grades they give out are too goofy. In this one they rated Ed Oliver with a 52.4, Taron Johnson with a 55.9, and Terrel Bernard with a 56.4. All below average grades. I'm sorry but that doesn't remotely match up with what I watched yesterday. I have seen players criticize PFF for failing to consider the players' jobs on a snap to snap basis. This appears to be a good example of that.

Yeah I was a little perplexed by my source's report too, I didn't see anything in the game that indicated Rousseau got hurt, but my source hasn't been wrong yet.

I don't know where else to put this, but I got this info from my usual source (I'm quoting verbatim): "Rousseau may have a lower leg injury. Something that COULD cost him a few weeks IF he feels like he can't play through it." Hopefully this doesn't turn out to be too serious. He had that high ankle sprain last year that nagged him over the final half of the season. Personally I would sit him a couple games if it comes to it, play the long game.

This is the same lesson teams had to learn about Sean McVay's offense when he first came onto the scene. Ignore all the eye candy, just play your man or zone. Once you remove the BS it's not that complicated to defend, as long as you have 7 players working as a hive mind (easier said than done of course).

Now that I've actually read your report (brilliant work as usual by the way) I wanted to comment on this line - This was the first game in a long time where I can remember multiple offensive players not named Allen or Diggs creating plays. I'll say that again - creating plays. Not catching a perfect pass and immediately getting tackled. Not getting schemed open. Creating. It's something our offense has been missing badly the past few years. You pointed out the examples. Harty's instincts to quickly get up before being touched and get to the sticks. Knox bulldozing over a man to get a 1st down. Cook smartly went deep on Allen's scramble drill and ended up in perfect position to make a huge catch with wide open grass in front of him. Murray had that one brilliant catch and run along the sideline where he picked up a bunch of YAC. (Side note - Murray might be my favorite addition of the offseason. He is the definition of a true pro and maximizes every opportunity he gets.) And then of course Allen and Diggs did what they always do, and then some. Elite QB play, elite WR1 play, and role players creating plays when they get their opportunity. That's a recipe for an offense that blows the doors off their opponent. Now I just want to see it again. I'm not holding out for another 48 point performance, I'm not THAT greedy, but I want to see the role players continue to create plays that rise above the scheme and above Allen's right arm. All offseason my biggest concern was not having a true #2 pass catcher to complement Diggs, and that concern honestly still nags at me a bit. Eventually the defenses will tighten up and we'll be in playoff football against some real juggernauts. But if we get what we got yesterday from our role players, maybe we can make it work. Maybe every week we'll have a different three-headed monster that combines to be the #2. No other Super Bowl team in recent memory has done it that way. But no other team in recent memory has had Josh Allen playing at the level we've seen him at these past three weeks.

Here's my defensive stat of the day: Brilliant work from McDermott. Getting Tua beyond his first read is most of the battle.

Shaw - You'll enjoy the first section of this article: https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/10/2/23899225/nfl-week-4-hot-read-josh-allen-buffalo-bills-miami-dolphins-philadelphia-eagles It discusses exactly what you've been saying, which is that when Allen takes the easy throws 80% of the time it keeps the offense on schedule, and he can still sprinkle a few 1 of 1 plays throughout the game.

This might turn out to be a very dumb statement but I'm not sure the defense has tendencies. McDermott is mixing it up constantly. We blitzed quite a few times in the first half today, then mostly dropped everyone into coverage in the 2nd half. We mostly rush 4 but it's anybody's guess which 4 are coming. When you combine that balanced play calling with a talented front 4 and a fundamentally sound back 7, and everyone is playing off of what their teammates are doing to near perfection, that's how you hold a 70 point offense to 20 points. I don't think there's some code for a genius offensive mind to crack here.

Not at all! Keep us in manageable distances on 2nd and 3rd downs and wear the defense down. Don't focus so much on the outcome of the individual play. Pass offense is about individual plays, run offense is about commitment over the course of the game. It keeps defenses from teeing off on their pass rush and ultimately pays off in the 4th quarter.