HappyDays

I'm not sleeping on him but I think very best case scenario for Davis this year is that he gets back to the player he was as a rookie - a mostly deep threat who takes advantage of gaps in the defense caused by other pass catchers getting more attention. Still a low efficiency receiver but with enough big plays in a complementary offensive role that you can forgive the efficiency. If anyone expects his catch percentage to suddenly leap into the mid-60s and for Davis to suddenly become an above average separator, that is not realistic IMO. There aren't any excuses for his performance last year. He has been the same player every year, just with variations in how much target share he has received. Every day that Kincaid shines in camp it becomes more realistic that Davis will have his target share substantially reduced. Rookies making a big impact in a championship caliber offense is rare, but if Kincaid can be the exception I will not be concerned about Davis's role any more. However Kincaid would need to approach Beasley's 2020 season (76.6% catch percentage, 82 receptions, 967 yards) for him to be a truly ideal #2 target, and there's a long way to go for him to prove himself that capable. I am about as optimstic as I could be in July though.

Every time I see throws like this I'm reminded that Allen did not know how to throw with touch as a rookie. It's a necessary skill that he picked up very quickly.

Some observations from Matt Parrino and Ryan Talbot:

The one take I will absolutely bash right now is from the people that complained we drafted a TE with Knox already on a long term deal. Like some of us were saying you can't think of Kincaid as a traditional tight end and he will barely impact Knox's role, if at all. It remains to be seen how well Kincaid does in real games but from training camp reports it is obvious that he and Knox both have a defined role in this offense. Also Kincaid is going to be a 1st ballot Hall of Famer. Guaranteed.

On a similar note, this snippet from Matt Parrino's latest training camp report: Spencer Brown taking even a moderate step forward along with improvements at both guard positions would immediately put this OL in the upper half of the league. I'm not expecting a suddenly top 5 unit, but with Allen at QB I'll accept top 15.

Don't forget about Kincaid's stock:

I might just exclusively post about Dalton Kincaid for the rest of the offseason.

His full contract details were published today: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/deandre-hopkins-12307/ $3.6 million cap hit in 2023, $15.9 million cap hit in 2024 (which almost certainly will not actually come to fruition), 3 void years after that. Personally I think this was very doable for the Bills if they had been willing to let a few Tim Settles and Nyheim Hines go. There is a lot of flexibility in those contract figures. We conceivably could have given him more in year one than the Titans did to minimize the future cap impact. We would have had to tie ourselves to Hopkins for likely a minimum of three years when all was said and done, so yes there would have been some risk there. But it would have been doable. It is not a way out of line impossible to match structure like a lot of fans assumed it would be. This topic is dead for now. But if our offense struggles to find consistent efficient production from anyone behind Diggs throughout the season and into the playoffs there is going to be a lot of scrutiny over Beane failing to fit in this contract, especially if Hopkins continues to perform well.

At training camp they'll put players on the cart for any lower leg injury just for precaution.