HappyDays

I saw a tweet that said it went from -6.5 to -5.5 with the Kelce news. So basically Vegas thinks he is worth a point. I still think the Chiefs will move the ball just fine. Against some teams Kelce being out could be the difference between winning and losing, but the Lions project to have an awful defense. I'm more intrigued by how long the injury lingers. Kelce will be 34 in one month. It's only a matter of time before his body starts breaking down. If this becomes a nagging injury that lingers throughout the season that could make a real difference in their win/loss column.

Short quick passing sounds nice in theory. It's hard to execute consistently though when your WR2 can't run those sorts of quick timing routes effectively. Davis took nearly 17% of our passing targets last year... That's a big volume share that has to be redistributed elsewhere if we're suddenly going to become a 2 seconds from snap to throw offense. Also a methodical 15 play drive offense like that needs to avoid as many drops as possible. Last year was not exactly a banner year for us in that department. So again it sounds nice in theory, the personnel we had last year just didn't really mesh with it. I know exactly what the Jets defense is going to do - put Sauce 1v1 on Davis and double Diggs. If the offense can run through Kincaid and Knox from day one then we can do more of what you propose here to counter that. 12 personnel where we run the ball consistently and throw the ball to Cook and our TEs enough that the Jets become sick of it and change their coverage scheme. So I'm hopeful Kincaid's addition and Cook's promotion will give us more answers to the problems you describe in your post. I'm just not willing to simplify the issue to "Allen was unwilling to take short throws." There were larger fundamental problems in our personnel last year, not to mention Allen's UCL injury, that made that sort of offense difficult to run with any kind of consistency.

My favorite Mahomes play was when he threw a 10 yard crosser that became a 60 yard TD. Only someone that spends 16 hours a day watching film could have pulled that one off. In all seriousness I don't know of anyone that agrees with you here, not just among Bills fans. The common belief is that Allen got screwed out of a win by his defense and by a coin flip. But I'm glad we got your opinion on the record.

So in your opinion Josh Allen did not play well enough to win that game?

I'm not a believer in Watson or their coaching staff. I think they're clearly 4th in the division.

I'm betting on Mike Tomlin getting the roster to more wins than they're worth and the Bengals faltering a bit early on with Burrow taking time to get into form. And every team in that division has some major question marks on their roster. Plus I feel like you have to predict one major surprise in predictions like this because realistically some major surprise is going to happen.

I see the AFC seeds working out like this: #1 Jaguars 12-5 #2 Chiefs 12-5 #3 Bills 11-6 #4 Steelers 10-7 #5 Bengals 10-7 #6 Jets 10-7 #7 Ravens 10-7 I think it's going to very tight all season long.

This article from Over The Cap sheds some light on why the Chiefs and Chris Jones are so far apart: https://overthecap.com/thoughts-on-the-chiefs-offer-to-chris-jones Essentially teams always value contracts based on new money given out above the player's current contract, not on the total value of the new contract. Under that system of valuation, what Chris Jones is asking for exceeds the value that Aaron Donald got in his most recent contract. The Chiefs don't want to pay him more than Aaron Donald so the two sides are not close right now. Either way he will have to report in week 8 to get credit for the final year of his contract so this won't completely tank their season, but if we're lucky they'll start off slower than anticipated.

I'm really interested to see where this goes.

I think having a 1% missed tackle rate is kind of like having a 1% interception rate. In theory it looks good on paper but in reality it means you aren't pushing the envelope enough to create big plays.

You all realize that Netflix Quarterback show is personally curated by Mahomes' and the Chiefs' PR teams, right? You think he signed up so they could show him knocking down beers on the golf course? Reality TV isn't a new concept - let me be the first to tell you it isn't actually reality. Allen had a UCL injury in his throwing arm that would have ended many QBs' seasons and was playing in a game one week later. That doesn't happen without an almost superhuman dedication to fitness and rehab. Just like Mahomes playing on a high ankle sprain. All of the guys playing at that level over the course of a brutal NFL season have an insane commitment to their bodies.

Well he would be terrible in that kind of offense. We have seen that when he is targeted on slants, curls, and digs - the sorts of plays you're talking about - he is below average as a separator. He also struggles to catch the ball in those situations where there's any kind of traffic around him. His usage isn't a function of the offense, it's a function of the player.

I don't think anyone in the AFC is the clear leader, I think there are 9 or 10 teams that have a legitimate chance to come out on top in the conference. KC gets the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise but even they have some big question marks. Who's their #2 receiver? Can Donovan Smith shake off a really bad year? Without Chris Jones for a few games can their defense stop anybody? These are the questions we're asking about the presumed #1 team in the conference and every team below them has an equal number of or more question marks. I'll be surprised if anyone runs away with the #1 seed racking up 14 wins. I think it will be a bloodbath from start to finish. A 12 win team might be the #1 seed and they won't always look pretty getting there. Even more than usual it will come down to who enters the playoffs healthy and playing their best football.

It wasn't just @GunnerBill. Most of this board wanted nothing to do with Allen. And it wasn't just Bills fans, almost every fan of a team projected to draft a QB that year felt the same way about him. In the decade prior, every QB with that profile as a project with a strong arm had failed, including our very own Losman and Manuel. Then Mahomes, Allen, and Herbert all hit the scene in quick succession and changed the conversation.

As usual I nailed it.

Who do you let go instead to get Broeker on the roster though? McGovern, Bates, Edwards, Torrence, and Morse were all locks. That left Anderson and Broeker competing for the last IOL spot on the roster. By all accounts Anderson had a better camp and preseason. This was unfortunately just a numbers decision, and Anderson unlike Broeker appears to be able to play center too.

Kincaid - He will lead all rookies in receiving yards this year (I have a +1400 bet riding on this outcome). By next year he will be a regular 1,000 yard pass catcher. When Kelce retires he will be widely known as the best TE in the NFL. The only thing he may struggle with as a rookie is separating from physical LBs and DBs that get their hands on him off the line. Once he figures that out he will be the most annoying player to deal with like Kelce has been. Torrence - He will struggle a bit as a pass blocker as a rookie but immediately be a people mover in the run game. He will always be a better run blocker than pass blocker. He won't ever be regarded as an All-Pro type player but he will be the answer at guard here or elsewhere for the next 10+ years. Williams - He will have a roster spot somewhere for the next decade because of his tackling abilities but he'll never get a long term contract. I think he will have a career similar to Christian Kirksey. He will be a guy you can live with as a WLB.

Just a sense I get.

Yes the drop off from Edmunds to Kirksey will be felt. That's a different conversation from if re-signing Edmunds was a good choice though. I accept that Kirksey is a downgrade, maybe even a substantial one, but I'd still take him and his contract over Edmunds and his.

Good for Cody. I hope that he plays a key role for Cincinnati this year, specifically on Sunday November 5.

I just looked at the final practice squad for the first time today and I'm shocked to see AJ Klein isn't there. Unless I'm missing it? He was taking 1st team reps for us just two weeks ago, and now just like that he is completely gone. I thought for sure they would keep him on the PS if for nothing else than an emergency option that knows the system.

I hate to say this but my biggest concern right now is McDermott. I think the right coach could take all the adversity that transpired last year, and comments from a lot of pundits this offseason on how we missed our window and have been passed over in the division, and use all of that to fuel a hyper focused and hungry team that never takes its foot off the gas. I'm not convinced McDermott is the one to do that though. There just hasn't been a lot of good energy emanating from the team since they walked off the field for the last time in January. I worry that the malaise from last season is still lingering and McDermott doesn't know how to snuff it out. Would love for him to prove me wrong though.

This gives us a replacement level player at MLB. I'll take it. It is still a position of weakness but at least now it isn't a gaping hole. I'm not sure Dodson and Bernard are even 2nd string caliber players.