HappyDays

Such an awful call at the 1

Run defense looking great, pass rush not so much.

Who was the last Super Bowl participant with a #2 WR at the talent level of Gabe Davis and an average OL? Not even winner, just participant. The thing is I'm confident that Josh can bounce back from his bad performance last week. I'm not confident the players around him are suddenly going to become championship caliber.

You're not understanding the concept of the play. Davis isn't double covered, he's supposed to split the zones of the CB and the safety. That's the whole point of the high/low post corner. In fact this play is exactly what everybody wants Allen to do - read the defense pre-snap, confirm the coverage post-snap, get the ball out right away based on the read. But none of that matters if the read is taken away by a lousy route concept and lousy execution. The issue is that Davis didn't necessarily cut too soon. Based on the other two examples Kurt Warner showed that is for some reason how Dorsey wants that concept run. It doesn't make any sense. Allen is literally just following the concept of the play. Isn't that what everyone wants? If he messed anything up it's the ball placement but like Warner pointed out he is rushing the throw because of when Davis breaks. Allen made a lot of mistakes in this game. This wasn't one of them.

You and me both. It's frustrating when people make judgments about QB play without understanding what the QB's job is on each play. Allen followed the exact concept of this play but it wasn't executed well. Also I previously blamed Davis for this route, and while it certainly was not a crisp route, seeing the other two examples of the same problem from different players I now mostly blame Dorsey for this interception. I don't know what it is with this offense and route depth. It's been an issue for years even when Daboll was here. Too many times we see WRs end up right next to each other when the ball is thrown. On Allen's 2nd interception Sherfield didn't get nearly enough depth to draw Whitehead's attention. Pro football requires absolute precision in the most minute details, especially against a fundamentally and technically sound defense like the Jets have. Is Dorsey coaching these details at a high level? I'm not convinced.

Last season. This season I'd be shocked. And really the Eagles should have won if Hurts hadn't inexplicably dropped the ball. For all the talk about the AFC being a gauntlet, the Eagles, 49ers, and Cowboys all look pretty clearly like the best teams in the league IMO.

I find it hard to believe any team can defeat the 49ers or Eagles in the Super Bowl. They're both way too well balanced and have unstoppable offenses when they don't make mistakes.

"That was closer than I liked but the offense played mistake free football and we got the win."

Troy Vincent

Bills 23 Raiders 20 I'm expecting a very boring game with few big plays from either side. Ultimately our talent advantage wins out.

Unless the Bills run that concept differently from how every other team has ever run it, Davis's job there is to make the safety think he could run a post before cutting to the corner. Instead he carried a big flashing sign that said I'M RUNNING THIS WAY -> and Whitehead had an easy play on the ball.

Gunner I don't disagree with anything you've said in this thread. The loss falls almost exclusively on Josh. But I sometimes get the sense that Dorsey is feeding into those bad habits. The 2nd INT is a good example. That was clearly a designed shot play. Sherfield was supposed to take Whitehead's attention to give Diggs a 1v1 downfield - I'm sure Whitehead got a kick out of that. He smartly ignored Sherfield and drifted backwards into the window of the obvious shot play. So the first thing about this play is that Allen should not have thrown the ball, everyone agrees with that. It's on him to identify that Whitehead didn't bite on Sherfield and either throw the ball away or eat the sack. But we're in a close game against a backup QB where one more FG probably wins the game and Dorsey dials up a shot play for his hyped up arm arrogance QB. Don't you think that is a little bit of a poor coaching job there, while also acknowledging that it is still primarily Josh's fault?

I haven't seen much juice from Harty. He's automatically an upgrade on McKenzie because he doesn't puke all over himself several times a game, but he does not accelerate nearly as fast as advertised and he goes down on first contact. He appears comfortable as a punt returner though so that counts for something. I'm just not expecting him to be much of a contributor on offense. Those 3 yard swing passes gave Allen some easy completions but they didn't really move the offense.

So you agree that Gabe should not be a #2 WR and that Josh was the primary issue on Monday night? Which is exactly what I said in my post? "Fills an important role" - yeah, he is our #2 WR. If you ask anyone on the team from the front office down to the players they'll tell you the same. I'm not presuming anything, the team is. It's gotta be Kincaid or we have to make a trade at some point. There is no other answer.

It isn't just one game for Gabe. It's the story of his career. When forced into a WR2 role he has trouble separating against CBs and catches 50% of the targets thrown his way. He's Marquez Valdes-Scantling with a better release package. Having a player like that as a full time WR with even more mediocre weapons behind him is a HUGE crutch for the offense, especially one that has Super Bowl aspirations.

One other thing I forgot to mention - in 2020 our #2 pass catcher was Cole Beasley. That year I think we did have a championship caliber WR corps, and no coincidence that playoff run was the furthest we've made it in the Josh Allen era. So I'm not asking for Kincaid to be Devonta Smith or Tee Higgins. 2020 Cole Beasley is all I really need for him to be. Just be a chain mover with a high catch percentage. Beasley had a 76.6% catch percentage that year. That's how you keep an offense moving. I would still like to see how Kincaid fares on seam routes and other intermediate/deep throws when facing physical coverage. It is a legitimate question about his game which will determine his ceiling as a #2 target this year. But IMO the floor is quite high.

I'm not just basing it on this one game. I have felt this way about him since before the Bills drafted him, and my confidence has only grown from there through all the glowing reports from training camp, his performance in preseason, and now his first real NFL action against a nasty defense. I am a little more reserved about the idea than my post may have seemed, and I recognize it may fail, but I think it's worth a shot. I hate the idea of having 3-4 different players all acting as the co-#2 pass catchers. Every Super Bowl participant from the past 6 years or so had a legit #2 pass catcher where everyone knew that was his role. You can look if you don't believe me. So eventually we need someone to take up that mantle. I have totally lost faith in Davis to perform that role at a championship level. Kincaid is the only other player on the roster that I believe to be capable of possibly being that guy. So I'd rather find out ASAP. If he doesn't pass the test I'd be looking at trade options.

I'll also use these threads to track my previous week's choices. I feel very good about these predictions. Cook looked like a huge upgrade on Singletary, Davis was his usual inefficient self, Kincaid showed great potential but wasn't utilized all that much. For this week: Buy buy and buy some more: Dalton Kincaid. The kid is getting his stock bumped up big time. Putting him here makes way too much sense. I believe that on film review from Monday night they will see Kincaid constantly uncovering in zone which is primarily how defenses will play us. They will want to get Allen into rhythm and taking easy completions. Enter Swole Beasley. I'm projecting 7+ catches and 70+ yards. Sell: Terrel Bernard. I hate the thought of Josh Jacobs barreling towards our small MLB. Hopefully our offense gets a big enough lead that this matchup becomes irrelevant. Hold: Christian Benford. He was solid and steady against the Jets. Nothing groundbreaking, just did his 1/11 and showed maximum effort by running down Breece Hall from behind. I expect a similar performance this week.

I am right there with you. I believe Kincaid is ready for that kind of role right now. He had a 100% catch percentage on Monday night and he plays in the area of the field that everyone agrees Josh should pay more attention to. I think just by giving him the featured #2 job, that alone would solve a lot of our inefficiency problems. That being said he's a rookie so it remains to be seen if he's actually ready to take on that kind of responsibility but it's worth a shot.

Most of the focus this week has been on Josh Allen's struggles. Rightfully so. He almost singlehandedly lost us the game. But evaluating other players on offense shouldn't be ignored. The biggest question on offense coming into the season was how Davis would step up in his second season as the presumed #2 WR. Against the Jets he finished with 2 catches on 4 targets (50% catch percentage) and 32 receiving yards. Despite playing on 94.2% of snaps, he finished with equal or less catches than: Damien Harris (13% of snaps) Deonte Harty (21.7% of snaps) James Cook (59.4% of snaps) Dalton Kincaid (80% of snaps) Dawson Knox (84% of snaps) The obvious caveat is that is based on exactly one game. But the presumed #2 WR who was on the field for all but 4 snaps is catching the ball less than guys that are supposed to be role players. And it continues a worrying trend of Davis only catching 50% of the targets that come his way which is bottom of the barrel efficiency. He was also at least partially to blame for Allen's 3rd interception because of a lazy route that gave Jordan Whitehead easy leverage. Davis had the longest catch of the night at 26 yards and it was a big one. But right now the common complaint is that our passing offense was way too inefficient against the Jets and that Allen needs to get the ball out faster. We have a 50% catch WR where every meaningful target is 3+ seconds after the snap, playing almost every down on offense and operating as our presumed #2 receiving target. He can't separate quickly and he's almost useless as a pass catcher within 10 yards of the LOS. Isn't it possible that such a glaring problem is contributing to a good chunk of that inefficiency?

If Josh isn't completely broken, I agree. Beane needed a really solid draft to keep our championship window open and it appears he did. Kincaid and Torrence both look like hits. If Kincaid becomes a superstar like I believe he can be, that is a home run draft class.

What I liked about the pick to begin with is the size of the player. I think Beane has undervalued size in the trenches the past few years. Technique is great and all, but trying to move a 347 pound human being 40 times a game is going to wear anybody down. I think Howie Roseman understands this concept better than anybody in football.

But he can't drop his eyes and look at the pass rush. He can't start every 3rd down play thinking "I'll need to take off." He has to stand in there and trust his OL and trust his instincts to get out if pressure gets there. If pressure gets to him before his reads are open that's on the OL. But he can't be anticipating that to the point that he is bailing out of a bunch of clean pockets. To Gunner's point it might take him time to get used to having a decent OL. It starts with his mindset though. Maybe Dorsey can call some designed roll outs early, get him comfortable and get him used to throwing from a pocket even if it's a moving pocket. I don't know what the exact solution is but it has to change.

It's a podcast... It's not meant to be consumed while staring at your screen. I listen to this and other similar podcasts while commuting and while doing chores. It has basically taken the place of sports radio for me.

Two things need to fundamentally change and they have nothing to do with Dorsey: 1) Allen has to trust his OL. This was by far his biggest problem on Monday night. Bailing empty pockets, anticipating pressure, etc. I believe this more than anything led to most of his mistakes. 2) Allen needs to stop turning the ball over. Full stop. We can't run a functional passing offense when our QB doesn't trust his OL (for no good reason I might add) and heaves downfield throws into bracketed coverage. If anything else needs to change outside of Allen, Kincaid deserves more targets and I wish Brown was just plain better. But none of that will matter if Allen doesn't get his head on straight.