HappyDays

Can't believe I'm saying this but this is a must win game. If we win, do what it takes to trade for a WR - Hopkins, Jeudy, whoever is available that possibly upgrades Davis we have to make a move. If we lose, heads will probably roll at the end of the season when we inevitably miss the playoffs so might as well stand pat.

It's Halloween, that special time of year when Kyle Shanahan's QB turns back into a pumpkin.

How do you know what the natural play design is and whether Allen is executing it or not? For example I see people criticize him for targeting Diggs on certain plays, but it is clearly built into the offense that in obvious man coverage situations his read is always Diggs first. I see people criticize him for not checking out of certain plays or not making the right read on an RPO, without knowing his checks or reads or even if the plays they're criticizing have those checks and reads built in. I take the simple view of things. If Murray didn't unnecessarily commit OPI and Bass made a chip shot (for him) FG, we put up 32 points. That's without a true #2 WR and poor pass protection for much of the game. That's with Allen missing several throws that he usually hits. That's with the defense not getting off the field. That's with Knox dropping a simple 4th down catch. So I guess I find it hard to believe that he's leading an offense putting up that kind of scoring production with so much going wrong around him, while also missing a bunch of reads and generally not performing well. I get that still frame all-22 review has become very trendy but I'd like to think we are smarter than that and can evaluate the offense based on what we know, not on what we think.

Sure, he's typically a less than dependable pass catcher but this year has been the worst since his rookie season. It's possible the wrist injury is part of the cause. But that only explains the past two games. And the drop he had on 4th down yesterday was because he tried to trap the ball against his body instead of extending his hands out. Technique, not ability.

Someone already pointed out that drop percentage is really what matters, but also drops are not recorded the way we normally think of them. Knox wasn't officially logged with a drop yesterday, presumably because the defender impacted the catch, but anyone who watched that game knows it was a drop. His own poor technique led to the ball hitting the ground more than the defender's play. Overall he has just not been a dependable pass catcher this year. Allen has a 44.0 passer rating targeting him. It's brutally bad.

Oh right, I forgot about that. Oh well. No more 12 personnel.

They tried to hold it together with a brace, this news tell me it isn't taking so they're just shutting him down.

I've mentioned this before but he has a broken bone, plus torn ligament & cartilage. I was surprised he has been playing at all. Also this might sound callous but I take this as a positive. We need undependable players to stay off the field. Kincaid and Morris catch the ball.

Okay but you have to compare it to the league as a whole, and games don't end at halftime. Offense across the league has come down a lot this year. We've come back around in the NFL cycle, defenses have figured out how to stop the modern offenses. Compared to the rest of the league our offense has NOT been the biggest problem over the last three weeks. Our defense has been abysmal.

So just ignore the stats then? Okay.

@MAJBobby now do you see what the problem is?

This is against one average offense and two awful offenses. It's official - we are one of the worst defenses in the league. All that investment, a defensive head coach, and this is what we get.

After a performance like that, his learning will come in the film room, not on the field. If you can't grasp your responsibilities you can't play. Coming from Tulane to playing against an NFL mastermind like Belichick is not an easy transition. Chalk it up to a bad game for a young player... he was still not the primary reason our defense wilted over and over again.

He was unfortunately terrible. Out of position all day. Here's one example: https://streamable.com/hwq41k He needs to pass off the TE to Bernard and take the crossing route to Bourne. His mistake creates a wide open WR with room to run.

Yeah I get the sense that Shakir isn't exactly a bright football player, and that more than anything is probably keeping him in a limited role. He does a poor job of reading the defense/leverage on the fly and adjusting his route accordingly. Doesn't make himself a friendly target to the QB when running through zones. He is also a physically limited player. So he is cerebrally and physically limited. I don't know why anyone thinks elevating that caliber of player to a bigger role is going to be the solution to our passing woes.

Joe Marino on Locked On Bills gave some sobering stats about the defense's performance. The Patriots averaged 12 points per game before yesterday. They had made it to the red zone 10 times in their 6 previous games - that's 10 total red zone trips in 6 games. Against us they made it there 5 times. People can criticize the offense but the QB is playing with an injury in his throwing shoulder. The Pats had the 14th ranked defense by DVOA, not terrible, but just the 29th ranked offense. Most of our draft & free agency investment is on the defense. Our head coach is defensively minded. This is a game where we needed our defense to carry the day a bit.

He hasn't regressed. He's actually having a more efficient season than usual this year. He is just inherently a limited player. And you can't scheme up a bunch of slow developing vertical routes every game, which is all that Davis is really good for. They have intentionally lowered his targets, they just haven't really had anyone worthwhile to redistribute them to.

It's not his wrist. It's poor catching technique. Our #2 and #3 pass targets both have amateur level catching techniques. Gee I wonder why our passing offense is so inconsistent all the time.

Allen should have stolen McDermott's headset and called the final 2 minute series. Good post.

Kyle Trimble of Banged Up Bills predicted this based on the type of injury. Luckily he believes it will be fully healed in about 2 weeks or so so it won't be a lingering problem through the entire season. We are going to have to live with accuracy variance for 1-2 more games. Can the team around him step up and pick up the slack? Based on today's result it's hard to believe that.

My bad that was a typo, I edited it to say #1 in the division.

Mac Jones leading a 2 minute drill TD is the only thing standing in the way of us being #1 in the division right now. If the Pats offense was simply held to their season high before today we would be #1 in the division. I still can't get over it.

It's already been 7 games and in 4 of them the product on the field has not been good enough. And that was the easier part of our schedule we just got through. Still to come: Eagles, Chiefs, Dolphins again, Jets again, Cowboys, Bengals. What reasons are there to be optimistic right now that we are even going to make the playoffs? We've already lost tiebreakers to 2 other teams we'll be competing with for a wildcard spot.

No fresh takes needed. He's the same player he's been since he was a rookie, just undeservedly elevated to a premium role. It should be obvious to everyone that he is nothing more than a depth quality WR. Giving Kincaid more targets today was a step in the right direction, but to take this offense to a championship level they need a lot better from their 2nd outside WR. Do you really still disagree with that?

DTs were absolutely an issue today, but more than that I thought our gameplan was terrible. The Pats have no talent on offense. It's the exact kind of team where you can afford to just drop back and play for coverage sacks and wait for them to make mistakes. A Leslie Frazier coached defense would have won this game. Instead we blitzed repeatedly including (I think) on the 40 yard screen pass that started their game winning drive. Another issue is that for several years now the defense has suddenly fallen into a rut after looking elite, and it never ends up rebounding. To me that is a huge coaching failure. As other coaches get tape on our defense they are finding ways to beat us and we never have an answer back. I really can't get over that we allowed 29 points to the worst offense in the NFL. It's honestly unbelievable. The Broncos defense will give up less than that, I'm sure of it.