HappyDays

Trust me, Kincaid is extremely open. He has like two steps on his guy. If anything you could say Allen underthrew it a bit but either way Kincaid is in single coverage and has a strong chance of completing the catch or drawing a DPI. That all assumes that Austin stays with Sherfield which of course does not happen. If after watching the all-22 you think Allen should have checked it down to the RB for a couple yards, then you'll never want him attempting any vertical shot in any situation unless it's a totally blown coverage. And if you believe that, that's fine. I myself have said I would like us to remove these designed shot plays from our playbook. But as far as executing the play Allen made the right read and threw the ball where he was supposed to. The play call was aggressive, not the throw.

Sorry I forgot to mention I skipped the entire drive leading up to the INT just for time's sake. As far I know the rest of that drive was fine, I just wanted to break down the INT. But I included every other pass before that drive that didn't end with a scramble. If you want to complain about the play call I can respect that. Our shot plays have been terrible all year, more likely to end in an INT than a positive play. I didn't feel a need to be aggressive there considering the kind of game this was becoming. Only two guys running routes and both deep, I don't get it. But for the play itself I genuinely believe Allen executed it like he was supposed to. As soon as Austin appears to follow Sherfield on the post route, he has Kincaid in single coverage on the shot play. That's exactly the look they wanted. If you have a chance to watch the all 22 of that play you'll see what I mean. Austin spins away from Sherfield as soon as Allen is releasing the ball, it's uncanny. Like at the exact right moment he diagnosed where the ball would be and got himself in position to pick it off.

Coming back to this, I watched the next several the plays through Allen's INT. Here's what I saw: 5th passing play - 1st and 10 from the Bills 38. This is the first play I've seen where I have no clue what Allen is looking at. I think ultimately he gets caught staring at the rush. Kincaid runs a quick hitch to the short right. I don't mind Allen passing him up, he would have been tackled immediately for a 3 gain. But then Knox comes open in a clear passing window right behind Kincaid. From the view behind Allen it is a wide open passing lane in his vision IF he stands in the pocket and lets it develop a second longer. Instead Allen looks down at the rush and then bails a clean pocket left. He ends up throwing it away. I think he let earlier interior pressure get into his head and affect his process here. 6th passing play - Protection breakdown on a 4 man rush. The MLB comes right up the middle unblocked. Either Morse or Torrence screwed up here. Morse helps double McGovern's man, Torrence helps double Brown's man. Nobody picks up the MLB so the play is DOA. Also frustrating on this play is that Diggs could have drawn a DPI if he had made an effort. While running right away from the free rusher Allen launches a prayer deep to Diggs. If Diggs stops and comes back for the ball it's almost certainly DPI as we see with underthrown deep passes all the time. Instead he lets it bounce harmlessly off the DB's back. 7th passing play - Torrence is dusted by Barmore off the snap. This is as bad any rep we got from Saffold last year. Because of immediate pressure Allen takes a quick pass to Sherfield who drops it, but he would have been tackled short of the sticks here on 3rd down anyways. No time for routes to develop past the sticks so once again the play is DOA. 8th passing play - 3rd and goal from the 6. Super tight window throw to Kincaid that is off by about half a foot. It's a keyhole throw that they just barely don't connect on. I don't really blame anyone here, it is tight coverage at the most difficult area of the field. I have seen people point out Shakir gets open on the opposite end of the field but Allen was never looking that way. He has Diggs and Kincaid to the short side of the field against man coverage. A pass to Shakir would have required to start with his eyes on that side because of how far away from the ball Shakir ends up. Davis manages to take out 3 defenders on a rub route but Allen couldn't have predicted that. 9th passing play - 1st and 10 from the Pats 46. Allen misses by a couple inches on a rail route to Cook. I don't see any major mechanical issues here, he just overthrew it. 10th passing play - Now 2nd and 10. It's a mesh route where Allen ends up throwing the ball at Davis's feet when a free rusher gets in his face. I don't think any single player is at fault here, the Pats defensive scheme just won the play. Davis kind of screws up on his mesh getting around the MLB and trips up Morris who's running the opposite mesh but eh it's hard to blame him. Pats blitz gets a free rusher home before anyone has a chance to get open so Allen wisely dirts it. 11th passing play - Now 3rd and 10. Either Allen and Sherfield aren't on the same page or Allen totally misses the pass high and wide. Sherfield runs a deep hitch and finishes the route with inside leverage. Allen throws the pass out to the sideline. I don't know what happened here. It was either a minor miscommunication or Allen sailed it. 12th passing play - The INT. I don't know if this is my bias showing but I really don't blame Allen here. First of all there is no short play here other than a late developing check down to Murrary. It's a two man shot play all the way and based on Sherfield's route (more on that on a bit) I think the play was always designed to go to Kincaid. Allen is reading Alex Austin who clearly shows leverage towards Sherfield running the podt route. However, Sherfield totally dogs his route. It's embarrassing. He does not convince anyone that the ball is coming in his direction. As a result I believe Austin notices this and quickly spins away from Sherfield just as Allen is releasing the ball. Really smart play from Austin here recognizing that Sherfield was running a clear out route (with assistance from Sherfield's poor acting job) and unfortunately he drops off Sherfield right when Allen is releasing the ball so he ends up in perfect position to undercut the pass and intercept it. If you want evidence that Belichick still has his coaching chops, this play was clearly the result of brilliant coaching on a bottom of the roster caliber player. So all in all I saw one truly awful play from Allen where he unnecessarily ran out of a clean pocket and missed an open passing window. He missed a pass to Cook by a couple inches and a pass to Kincaid by less than that. I saw a ton of protection breakdowns from Torrence in particular, he had a brutal first half. Sherfield was a net negative. A drop, an incomplete pass in his direction, and poor effort on a clear out route leading to an INT. Diggs is unable to separate 1v1. Davis might as well not be a WR, he is either blocking or running rub and clearing routes. Just a very messy set of passing plays for a multitude of reasons. Personally I think the central reason still is that we don't have pass catchers that separate quickly. Everything tends to be too long developing so when our IOL doesn't hold up the play is DOA.

I just watched all-22 of the first two drives of this game and my first takeaway is that we need to start designing the reads to account for the fact that Diggs is no longer a reliable 1v1 option. So first passing play of the game is blown up by McGovern and Torrence. Allen comes out of play action, literally everybody is going to be open but he already has pressure in his face by two interior rushers and the play is DOA. 2nd passing play - Allen immediately looks at Diggs running a whip route 1v1 to the short right side of the field. Diggs never comes close to separating. In the past this has been an automatic completion. By the time Allen moves to his next read the OL has been beat and he launches a very low percentage pass to Kincaid downfield just to get rid of the ball. On the left side of the field Shakir actually beats his man on a deep out route. It's a beautiful route. But Allen started with Diggs on the other side (presumably because this is the built in #1 matchup against man coverage) and that was that. 3rd play - This is right after our INT so we have the ball inside the 20. Diggs runs a post corner to the left. Allen starts by checking middle field safety who runs right to cover Kincaid. After confirming Diggs is now in single coverage he stares him down but once again Diggs never comes close to separating so Allen ends up throwing the ball away as pressure gets there (not the OL's fault - it's a 6 man blitz). If Allen had looked to replace the blitz with the throw he would have hit Shakir running a quick slant off the line for probably a 6 or 7 yard gain. But apparently his read is automatically look at Diggs if Diggs is in 1v1 coverage. The 4th passing play is Cook dropping the screen on 3rd down. I don't have time for more right now, but my big takeaway is they need to remove Diggs 1v1 in man coverage as an automatic read. Diggs just isn't that guy right now.

Well yeah. Our personnel does not separate quickly... Davis is playing almost 100% of snaps and he is a terrible fit for a rhythm and timing offense. Diggs can't separate quickly right now like we're used to. Defenses are putting guys over Cook to take away those quick passes. Kincaid and Shakir to my eyes appear to be doing a good job of finding holes in zone coverage and making themselves available to Allen, but they are not typically separating quickly in man coverage. Meanwhile every time a defense blitzes us it feels like there are 3 free rushers instead of just 1. Good luck running a timing offense against that... The best possible play in that scenario is chucking the ball deep to a 1v1 WR that you trust to locate the ball and come down with it or draw DPI but we don't have anybody that comes close to fitting that description. All of the passing game woes come down to the weapons... It really is that simple. With an honorable mention to the OL who for several years now have struggled with protection schemes against blitzes and stunts. No part of this passing offense is playing in rhythm right now.

I don't think this is right at all. Allen hasn't had an issue choosing to throw the ball short this year. I think it's actually been his best year in that regard. As for Cook's short passes, we're seeing how easy it is for defenses to take those away when they make it a point to do so. Early in the season Cook was getting ignored because defenses didn't think Allen would take those throws. Now that those throws are on film, defenses are assigning guys to specifically cover him so Allen has to go elsewhere. The one swing pass he threw to Cook yesterday was dropped for a 4 yard loss, and he threw it to him as a check down because Diggs was smothered by his 1v1 man coverage. It isn't as simple as just throwing Cook the ball and expecting magic to happen. Honestly all of the recent issues on offense come back to Diggs. Defenses don't have to pick their poison by taking one coverage man and bracketing him on Diggs. They can leave Diggs in single coverage and still have enough players in coverage to take away everyone else including would-be check downs. Running a passing offense without a single reliable go-to guy is really tough sledding, made worse by the fact that we get zero explosion from our WR depth chart.

Him and Kincaid are probably our best answers right now, which is disappointing to say the least. But I will say Shakir's size, especially his arm length, also creates low margin for error. I think constantly funneling the ball to him over the middle would create more possible negative plays than fans would like to believe. Still he has been the most consistent receiver we've had by far on a per target basis in recent weeks. Ideally Shakir would just be a role player but we may be forced to prioritize his target share a little more.

Yeah, sure, whatever you say.

No, for some reason our WRs don't try to draw them. Underthrowing deep passes that the WR simply runs back into the DB for an easy penalty has been a surprisingly productive play for a lot of offenses over the past few years. I don't know why we are the only team to never take advantage of this. Diggs had one pass today that would have been a DPI if he had made an effort to come back and catch the ball, instead he just stood there and let the ball bounce off the DB's back. That's why I'm worried he has lost his edge. He is not playing with any kind of fire right now, seemingly just going through the motions.

Bad look, man. Some of your takes on the Chiefs' investments on offense were flat out wrong. You would look better just standing up and admitting it. I remember a post of yours earlier in the season where you said "this is the best Chiefs team I've ever seen." Still feeling that way?

Like I said earlier it's a very low margin for error pass because Diggs has average speed and average catch radius. You have to drop that pass in the bucket or else it's incomplete and if you underthrow it there's a chance it's picked. It would nice to see us hit a deep shot to Diggs one of these weeks but it's inherently low percentage. Personally I would just take those shot plays out of the playbook. Every wasted down creates a massive strain because, again, it's an inherently low margin for error offense.

It is for sure the biggest difference. Fans underestimate the trickle down effect of having top tier skill position talent. If a defense can just win all their 1v1 matchups without having to put themselves in conflict, it's incredibly difficult to make your offense work. It's like how a defense that can get consistent pressure rushing 4 has a massive advantage. Football is ultimately a game of numbers and leverage. We don't have any numbers advantages right now.

Beane has a history of betting on the most optimal possible scenario for offensive players. I hope he has learned something from his failures the past couple years and if anything over invests in the offense this offseason. The way he has treated the DL the past several years, I would love for him to do the same thing with WRs this offseason.

I really hope this is the case. Then at least there is hope for Diggs to return to form next year. My fear is that he has either lost some of his edge or his physical abilities have declined suddenly, or both.

Yeah something is going on with his deep passes to Diggs specifically. He hit two to Davis last week and one to Kincaid today. Diggs I think it was the Jaguars in London the last time they connected on a deep pass. Their timing on the whole has been off for a couple months now.

We've never had play designs to get Diggs open. He has done that himself with elite route running. This year he simply doesn't have it. Every passing offense needs someone you can rely on when other things aren't working. We don't have anybody to rely on consistently right now.

I think you'll find that any offensive coach would have trouble calling a consistent passing offense with below average pass catchers and an average OL. I don't really care if they keep Brady or hire someone else. It's not going to be a massive difference in either direction until they upgrade the personnel. In Brady's favor I will say I think he has done a good job attempting to lean into our strengths. The issue is we don't have a lot of strengths. Allen making a few great throws a game is pretty much all we got. Almost every completed pass looks difficult.

Because Diggs just isn't very good right now. I see a lot of Bills fans are afraid to say it out loud. Everyone sees his production has gone down and is grasping for answers. The simplest answer is the correct one. I'm not sure there are 20 WRs he is out playing right now. It's a massive concern heading into the playoffs.

No such thing as a proven OC looking for a job. Most proven OCs are head coaches, and the ones that aren't are soon to be head coaches. We have to get it out of our heads that a Kyle Shanahan level genius is going to show up and save the day, not unless we plan on firing McDermott in the offseason. So at this point we just need to add talent. Even making an effort to add talent would be an upgrade.

He hasn't been double covered since at least the Chiefs game. He is just plain getting swallowed up against single man coverage. At least when he was getting bracketed it was opening other things up. As of right now nothing is getting opened up because no one can win their basic 1v1 assignment.

Quality of passing weapons is by far the 2nd biggest indicator of offensive success (obviously QB #1) in the modern NFL. Like did Andy Reid forget how to coach offense this year? This year especially the best offenses have multiple very good or better pass catchers. Our offense doesn't even have one very good pass catcher right now. It really is that simple.

If we want a substantial improvement in offensive coaching, it will have to come at the top. That's the reality. So if McDermott is here for the long haul we should probably start seriously investing in the offensive weapons to compensate for the inevitable less than elite offensive coaching.

Can't wait to hear Mahomes complain about that garbage intentional grounding penalty after the game. Since he genuinely cares about officiating fairness and all.

We came into the season knowing that we didn't have a #2 WR on the roster. Now it turns out we don't have a true #1 either. We have no speed, no YAC ability, below average separation and catch ability from our WR corps. That's why our passing offense has looked so inconsistent, there is zero margin for error.

So the problem is that that's our only consistent positive yardage passing play. Our WRs are not consistently separating downfield. So I think Brady is just trying to engineer some kind of rhythm in the passing offense. Not an easy needle to thread when Diggs is playing like nothing more than a decent #2 and everyone behind him is a JAG, not to mention our IOL has been pretty bad for a few weeks now.