HappyDays

My ideal draft scenario is Franklin or Legette R1, then someone in the mold of Polk/Rice/Baker in R2 or R3. I want elite physical skills in R1, then round it out with a route running or possession receiver on day two.

Rams? My mind went there first just because they haven't had a lot of picks in those rounds lately.

I'll admit I have a thing for massive men that play in the trenches. I'm a believer in size. Technique of course matters, but ultimately it's just hard to move a 360+ pound human being multiple times a game. Same reason I liked the Torrence pick last year. And I think large DTs have become even more important these days with undersized LBs becoming the standard across the league. But as usual it's a matter of the positional drop off from 1st round to later in the draft and in free agency. Capable 1Ts are not that hard to find, and elite 1Ts don't win games on their own. Defensive line is arguably just as big a need as WR right now but if we're going that route in the 1st round it has to be a pass rusher. Not a gap defender. If Sweat can develop into a Vita Vea type where he can dominate both areas then of course it would be a great pick.

I'm going to be so mad when we draft him in the 1st round.

A couple nice reps from Legette here:

DT T'Vondre Sweat is getting rave reviews today. He is likely to go in the 25-45 range. I could see the Bills really liking him as much as fans would hate the pick in R1... Profiles as a monstrous 1T at the next level.

Where do you see 73%? ESPN's win probability never has us at more than 48.5% win probability on that final drive, but that's besides the point. The only reason we got there is because we got incredibly lucky on one single play that completely changed the game. Teams that dominate their opponent can still occasionally lose because of one or two very swing-y plays. Still the domination happened. Our defense has been dominated by the Chiefs every time we've faced them in the playoffs. Eventually that has to change. Relying on an absolutely perfect showing from the offense AND one or two very lucky plays is not a realistic standard for victory. Our TDs came on drives of 11 plays, 12 plays, and 15 plays. Our last drive even if Allen had hit Shakir it would have been a 14 play TD drive. That's an incredicly difficult needle to thread consistently and not realistic to expect it to keep up. The Chiefs on the other hand had TD drives of 5 plays, 6 plays, and 8 plays. So again, the game did not just come down to the final series. Any way you choose to look at it, they dominated us.

That's where the disconnect is. I don't agree that our losses to the Chiefs in the playoffs have come down to one or two plays. In every respect but the final score, the games were not close. It's like the Ravens/Texans wildcard game this year. The score may have been equal at halftime, but the teams were not close even in the 1st half. We talk about luck mattering in the playoffs. Well, the Bills got lucky against the Chiefs both times. In the divisional round in 2022 the Chiefs lost 4 points on a missed FG and a missed XP. Without that, instead of being an all-time classic it's just a frustrating game where the Chiefs slowly pull ahead and never let up. This year we again got lucky when Mecole Hardman stupidly fumbled the ball through the endzone. Without that, they go up by 10 and the game is effectively over. Today we're all talking about a horrific fake punt effort and abysmal defense ending the game, instead of hemming and hawing over how the Bills should have handled the final 2 minutes. I get that the natural inclination is to boil any one score game down to the final series, but that's not really accurate. That final series only mattered because we got lucky. The truth is the Chiefs dismantled us in that game from start to finish. Our offense kept up for as long as it could thanks to an unreal effort by Allen (with honorable mention to Shakir), but ~8 yards per play versus ~4 yards per play, eventually the first team is just naturally going to pull away, unless the turnover margin or something like that is heavily favoring the 2nd team. So it was not a game that just came down to one or two plays. It was an abysmal defensive showing from start to finish, along with an abysmal special teams play, that gave us almost no chance to win.

Charlie Campbell reported Hall has major character concerns: https://walterfootball.com/nfl-hot-press-2024-senior-bowl-rumors-monday.php

Problem with him is he's likely slot only at the next level. Same with McConkey and Pearsall. Every year there are like 4-5 slot only WRs that fanbases fall in love with. It's a pretty easy position to fill with a small amount of effort. I'm good with Shakir manning that spot for the next two years, then rinse and repeat on day 3 of the draft.

You are overselling this. The Chiefs were up by 10 coming out of halftime... Andy Reid is smart enough to know that is nothing in the playoffs. At that point, before Flowers fumbled into the endzone effectively ending the game, the Chiefs knew they would likely need one more TD to put the game away. Instead they started the 2nd half with a 3 and out. Then they had their next drive stall out at midfield. Then they had another 3 and out on the next drive. Only after this 3rd failed drive did Flowers fumble the game away. So sure if you want to make the argument that they played conservative after that, that's reasonable. But those first 3 drives were critical and the Ravens defense just kept making stops. Compare that sequence to the Chiefs 2nd half against us. They started the 2nd half with two consecutive zero-resistance TD drives. Their 3rd drive after our failed fake punt they again were moving the ball at will and only stalled out because of Hardman's dumb mistake. The two defensive performances are really not comparable at all. At the same critical juncture in each game, one defense held firm, while the other defense got their teeth knocked out. There's no reason to think the Chiefs were just not trying as hard against the Ravens. Those were legitimate stops... The deep completion to MVS on the final drive has no relevance. But hey I don't blame just coaching. Look at the true down-to-down game changers the Chiefs fielded against us: Mahomes Kelce Jones Sneed Thuney Humphrey Compared to the true game changers we fielded against them: Allen You can quibble on a couple names on the Chiefs list, but you can't quibble that Allen was the only true game changer for us down the stretch. I know you are a believer in top end talent mattering more than depth. Measuring ours against theirs, it is no contest. The Chiefs also had a proper FG kicker and we didn't. Given those disadvantages it's a damn miracle that we only lost by 3. A miracle created by Allen putting on another all-world performance that (again) was wasted by an abysmal defensive showing. This is why I have no patience for anyone that says the difference between Mahomes and Allen is why the Bills can't get past the Chiefs. It is quite clearly the difference between everything else around them. In this game given how it went, I would easily trade any of the following players for their equal on the Chiefs before I would trade Allen for Mahomes (in order from most impactful to least): Kincaid for Kelce Oliver for Jones Klein for Bolton Jackson for Sneed Sherfield for MVS Bass for Butker I would also take Reid over Brady (obviously) and Spagunolo over McDermott (I know you likely disagree with this but to me it's not really debateable). I 100% believe that if you trade everything EXCEPT the QBs in the 2021 and 2023 seasons, the Bills would already have one Super Bowl ring and be on their way to a possible 2nd.

Gibbs was a bad pick... Without question. The Lions lost the NFCCG because they lacked talent at outside WR and CB. Emmanuel Forbes Christian Gonzalez Jordan Addison Deonte Banks Joey Porter Jr Those are 1st round players that could have helped them last year and possibly the next decade. I'll throw Lukas Van Ness and Will McDonald in as well because an edge rusher opposite Hutchinson is also a huge need. It's 2024... You just don't draft RBs in the 1st round anymore, certainly not in the top 12.

Meh I couldn't care less at DC. The buck stops with McDermott on the defense. It's like Andy Reid hiring an OC... No one cares. On offense I agree, I wanted a more exhaustive search. I like Babich because he has a strong resume of developing players. Keeping him in the building is more important than you give it credit for.

If Quinyon Mitchell builds on his performance today I think he could sneak into the top 12.

Except Hyde was a 5th round pick that we got for $6.1M AAV back in 2017. I don't care how good he ends up, you don't draft a hybrid CB/S in the 1st round. We have such little cap space that positional value in this draft will matter more than ever.

WR Xavier Legette apparently struggled today. Although I saw a couple other people saying none of his vertical routes were catchable, so 🤷‍♂️

Slot WRs are the one position that I don't read anything into from Senior Bowl practices. Those 1v1 drills are handmade for them to show off their skill set. Pearsall and McConkey would fit into that bucket.