HappyDays

Yeah, what about a totally different throw in a totally different situation. Good point.

Seemingly a lot of people on here don't understand what a QB's job is on any given play. They think QBs are playing Madden and have a top down view of the field. If anyone thinks he was supposed to throw to Diggs right away they are flat out wrong. That part of it is not even up for debate.

Allen had 4 game winning drives this year (should have been more but whatever). He has 19 in his career. Mahomes had 2 game winning drives this year. He has 16 in his career. Can't wait to see how you try and talk yourself out of this one.

You know it wasn't his decision, right? He is following progressions. Diggs is clearly like 3rd in the progression. Shakir is 1st and they got the exact coverage (cover 2) that they wanted to throw the TD. If people want to criticize Brady for being too aggressive with the play call I guess that's a conversation we can have... But it's patently ridiculous that we're asking the offense to thread an impossible needle of scoring a TD with just the right amount of time on the clock, all because we don't trust our head coach's defense to make a stop. I place the blame for that problem where it belongs. A lot of people are to blame for this loss. Allen, Brady, and Shakir are the exceptions.

It seems like Dan Quinn will end up in Seattle and Ben Johnson in Washington. I'm surprised Vrabel didn't get a job, seems like the Panthers were the only team that gave him due consideration and he may have not wanted to be part of that awful situation. Next year I expect Vrabel and Mike MacDonald will be the hottest names on the head coaching market. Perhaps Bobby Slowik too if he follows up on a great first year.

Unfortunately I really don't think they can. Last year there was a path to affording Hopkins if they pulled the right levers and approached free agency the right way. This year the most cap space I could create with realistic moves using Over The Cap's simulator was $8-9million. And that was with me pulling pretty much available lever that makes any kind of sense. A good chunk of that available cap space will have to go towards replacing the players we lose and the draft class. I don't see any way we can make a splash signing. Beane missed his chance last year and now he's stuck in a position where he HAS to draft a WR high. It's non-negotiable.

I wouldn't say instant. They are in major cap trouble this year. I would bet the plan is to take an intentional step back for one season while Harbaugh institutes his culture, and then be competitive in 2025.

I am going into next year assuming that the Diggs we got down the stretch is just who Diggs is now. If he gets back to the elite WR he was, great. But I think the Bills have to assume the worst and plan accordingly. With that in mind, they have so badly mismanaged the WR room that I think they need to come away from this draft with two different types of WR - one with elite speed, and one with true alpha X receiver potential. And I don't mean some late round flyer. Get two high end WR prospects in this draft. Increase the odds that you come out of the draft with a true home run at the position. Enough is enough. Having researched the WR prospects as much as I could this week, my preferred draft outcome is Troy Franklin in R1, and then one of Ja'Lynn Polk or Brenden Rice in R2. That gets us the elite speed guy, and then a true outside WR with alpha traits that hopefully develop further. How about this offense heading into 2024: WR1 Diggs WR2 Franklin WR3 Shakir WR4 Polk/Rice TE1 Kincaid TE2 Knox RB1 Cook Now we are really getting somewhere. Probably will add a cheaper veteran WR too, someone like Noah Brown to round out the room.

When have I dismissed this?

Reid was known for not being able to finish the job. 5 NFCCG appearances and 1 Super Bowl appearance. He did that with QBs that were not as good as Josh Allen. McDermott with Josh Allen has reached 1 AFCCG. It's not remotely comparable. Even Spagnuolo is a better defensive coach than McDermott. So we have exactly zero coaching advantages over them. You're the one that asked what explains the difference between the Bills and Chiefs over the past few years. I guess you've landed on QB. For me, even if you want to say Mahomes on the whole has been better than Allen, it's pretty obvious that the drop off between the rosters and the drop off between the coaching staffs is much greater than whatever drop off exists between Mahomes and Allen. FWIW I think Allen and Mahomes have alternated who was better than who in each season since 2020. Mahomes was better in 2020 and 2022, Allen was better in 2021 and 2023. It is not enough of a difference in either direction to account for the vast difference in playoff success between the respective franchises. Sure, we can make up extremely unlikely scenarios in our head all day. Kelvin Benjamin was with the Chiefs after he left the Bills. He was great there, right? Kadarius Toney really turned it around in KC, yeah? Tyreek Hill fell off the map when he left? I don't know why it is so hard for so many fans to evaluate talent independently. Mahomes is an elite player. So is Allen. You can still watch the players around them and make judgments about their abilities. It's not that complicated. And it figures that the one year the offensive talent around Mahomes is somewhat comparable to the offensive talent around Allen that the Chiefs defense becomes elite. Forget switching QBs in yesterday's game. Just switch the defenses and nothing else and it is plainly obvious who ends up winning the game.

No they didn't? Hill and Kelce were already known as game changers. Hill just had his best season as a pro without Mahomes throwing him the ball. I really have no idea why you would believe this. Game changing players matter more than anything else as far as winning the whole thing. A close 2nd is game changing coaches. The Bills simply don't come close to matching up in either area.

Coaching for sure, but also top end talent on the roster. I'm talking about true game changers. The Chiefs had: Mahomes Kelce Jones Sneed I might consider adding their entire IOL into that group too. Feels wrong to include the individual players, but as a whole they were a game changer. The Bills after Milano went down had: Allen Top end talent and top end coaching is what wins Super Bowls. The Bills had neither. The Chiefs had both. Very simple analysis to be honest.

Unfortunately Shaw I'm not sure this is the case. Every playoff loss the defense has looked the same - the opposing offense has moved the ball at will almost without resistance. What makes me especially concerned is that this was the worst offense the Bills have faced in any of their playoff losses, and yet they turned in their worst defensive performance yet. So it is getting worse, not better. The players are not prepared and Reid is exploiting our scheme with ease. I'm kind of sick of hearing about McDermott's growth mindset. I haven't seen any growth from him as a head coach. I'll voice the concern that I know every Bills fan feels deep down - what if the Josh Allen era ends with 0 Super Bowl wins? Nothing is guaranteed in this brutal league. Every season that passes gets us one year closer to Allen declining from his peak and eventually retirement. This regime has now had 4 swings at the bat since Allen broke out as an elite QB, and they are hitting nothing but singles. We already have one historically great QB that never won it all. Having two on our record would be a total gut punch. And so the anxiety is always there in the back of mind that we are wasting the best years of the best QB in franchise history. Two elite playoff runs from Allen ended at the divisional round. That isn't acceptable. McDermott and Beane are both good at what they do. But you need greatness from at least one of those positions to win it all.

We are up against it right now. I used Over The Cap's salary table calculator and pulled as many levers as possible. Restructure Allen, cut White (post-6/1 designation), cut Morse, cut Poyer, cut Harty, cut Hines, extend McGovern to lower his cap hit this year. Even after all that we are only $8.8 million under the cap. No way we can restructure Miller or Diggs. Restructuring Dawkins could open up another $6 million... but that is a risk at his age. They could cut Miller with a post-6/1 designation to open up another $6 million, but now you are getting to a point where we don't have a playable roster. Beane screwed himself with some of the bad contracts he gave out over the last few years. It isn't like last offseason where pulling the right levers and approaching free agency the right way would have allowed us to afford Hopkins. Guys like Pittman and Higgins and Evans are off the menu. As it is we will have to pay for replacements for the players we cut just to get our roster in order. So we're entering an offseason where we're likely going to be worse at certain positions, older at others, and no means to significantly improve anywhere. Meanwhile other competitors in the AFC have a bunch of cap space. The outlook is bleak. Truth be told Beane will simply have to nail this draft and we will likely have to rely on rookies to develop quickly. A WR in the 1st round is practically a necessity, and they will have to hit the ground running. Good news is Beane has done really well in the last two drafts. Cook, Bernard, Shakir, Benford, Kincaid, and Torrence all look like high level starters with the ability to become even more. He needs to find probably 3 more in this upcoming draft just to keep pace with the conference, and a WR must be one of them.

Chris Jones makes game winning plays in the playoffs. The Bills have nobody like that. Nobody steps up in critical moments, only Allen and Shakir in this game. So frustrating.

I guess I just don't see any room for improvement at OC. I agree we could probably have much better offensive coaching, and the video shows clear examples of this, but that would have to come from the head coach. Elite OCs all become head coaches. Swap Brady for another slightly above average OC. It won't make a difference. Maybe we strike gold and stumble into an elite OC for a year. The next year he'll be hired as a head coach elsewhere and the carousel will keep spinning round and round. So if McDermott is here for the long haul I guess we'll just have to settle for good enough and heavily invest in offensive talent to make up for the coaching gap that will exist between us and other Super Bowl contenders.

I don't care about Ty Dunne and I think it's pretty obvious that he is writing hit pieces on McDermott because it's good for business. But I will say I think you can summarize McDermott as a head coach with one play - giving the ball to Hamlin on a fake punt in a critical moment of a playoff game. That is who McDermott is. He makes decisions that are safe and comfortable and warm. He makes decisions rooted in emotion and a misguided belief in destiny. That's nice for the Disney channel. For the National Football League it's a joke. I don't want a coach that thinks he's the star of a feel good sports movie. I want a coach that understands he's going to war.

This is absolutely not the case. 8.5 yards per play versus 4.7 yards the play. Our drives had to be slow and methodical and error-free, and end with magical plays close to the goalline. The Chiefs were picking up massive chunks with ease. Their TDs came easy. Don't let the final score fool you. It was a total mismatch for the defenses, special teams, skill players, and coaching. Only one superior factor on our side kept it even on the scoreboard.

That's kind of an impossible needle to thread though. It's hard enough to score TDs against a great defense in the playoffs. Trying to do it with an exact amount of time left on the clock is not realistic. The offense's only goal on that drive was to score a TD. If they did what they were supposed to and the defense ultimately loses the game as time run out then the axe will fall where it should. If I would criticize one thing about that final series it's that we shouldn't have tried to get 9 yards on 3rd down. That's what the Chiefs are expecting. The plan should have been to pick up the easiest 6-7 yards possible and then go for it on 4th down. But as I've said elsewhere the game wasn't really lost on that final drive. One team picked up 8.5 yards per play (excluding kneeldowns). The other team picked up 4.7 yards per play. That kind of yards per play discrepancy is almost impossible to overcome, and the only reason we even had a chance was because of several individual elite plays from Allen (and Shakir) and Mecole Hardman stupidly fumbling through the endzone. In every respect but the final score it was not a close game.

I really don't care about what he does off the field. His on-field performance this year was not up to his standards, that is what I actually care about. But my point is that you can't act dumbfounded when fans and the media question Diggs' behavior. He has brought that on himself. You can't just pretend the narrative isn't there... And every new instance of questionable behavior is going to be folded into the narrative. That's how it always works in any public arena. So hey if the new version of Diggs' public persona is the Invisible Man I have zero issues with that. But it is going to take time for him to build up some credit and prove that he is not the type of person who only publicly criticizes others, never himself. Diggs has to be the one to change that narrative.

It isn't about this specific instance. He had a bad game and wants to avoid the media, fine. I don't care. But Diggs has a whole history that you're just ignoring here... Tweeting his way out of Minnesota. Screaming at his QB on the sideline of a playoff game. Leaving that game early before the final locker room huddle instead of sticking around with his brothers. Going on a media tour where he disparaged the team in the following weeks after that loss. Making a public spectacle on day one of training camp. All of that history means that his silence after this loss becomes part of the narrative around Diggs. A narrative that says he apparently has no problem publicly holding others accountable for their actions, but when it's time to hold himself accountable he disappears. It is not a good look in any way shape or form.

I guess, but then you have people criticizing him for rushing his internal clock on the ensuing 3rd down. Overall I'm just unclear on what the plan was at the end there. Were they playing for a TD regardless of the time? Were they playing for a TD only at the very end of regulation? Were they playing conservative for a FG? Nothing about that last series shows any kind of cohesive plan.

Beane to his credit really doesn't lie though. He is possibly the most honest GM in the NFL. When he makes it a point to say he wants to find better offensive weapons I believe him. Whether he actually executes that goal is another conversation.

Sounds like McDermott will still be the DC/play caller, so we are likely going to lose Babich to the Giants. Not a fan of this.

Yeah but it wasn't a stunt. He is lined up right over him. In a moment like that where you know you're calling a shot I think you to need to make sure the one game wrecker on their line is doubled... But I will say all the hemming and hawing over that last series of plays is kind of missing the point IMO. Either we perfectly thread the needle and score a TD with no time remaining, or we score too early and the Chiefs get another chance against our abysmal defense. The game was lost well before that drive.