HappyDays

They both spoke from the owners' meeting today. A few takeaways: -I remain slightly concerned about Cook potentially holding out without a new deal. Beane says "I think" Cook is a pro, "I'm sure" he'll want to prove his value. We'll see where that goes. -When he says CBs that can't tackle well aren't considered fits, the 1st round CB that would apply to this year is Maxwell Hairston. But it could be a smokescreen. Tre White was known to have tackling issues coming out of LSU. Elam as well. If they really cared that much, it hasn't shown up in their draft strategy. -Ogunjobi being labeled as a rotational 3T is not really what I hoped for the money we paid him. This means 1T is still a big need entering the draft and if say Kenneth Grant is still on the board I think they'll take him. -McDermott talks about Rapp like he's a locked in starter. That leaves Bishop's role in question. He doesn't seem like a natural fit at FS, it would be tough for him to beat out Darrick Forrest I think. We might be looking at another year on the bench or in spot duty if Rapp gets injured, with the plan for him to take over in 2026.

QB purgatory is the worst fate in the NFL.

It's 1 year and then we'll see: No way he's seeing that $26.5M cap hit in 2026. They could cut him next year and leave a $9.7M dead cap hit.

That's more a function of Beane offering all of his good draft picks early extensions. You will always get a player below their theoretical market value if you give them a contract one year before they hit FA. As a strategy it's hit and miss. Sometimes you wind up with an albatross like Knox's contract, but sometimes you end up with a massive steal like Spencer Brown's contract. I lean towards Benford's looking like a massive steal in two years.

I still think the concussion concern was overblown. Until the end of this past season he had had no reported concussions in his career. The 2nd one only happened because we rushed him through the concussion protocol to get him on the field for the AFCCG. I don't see any long term risk there. It is a bit concerning that he has missed two important playoff games in consecutive years and has had some general injury issues throughout his career but nothing so bad it scares me away from this deal.

This was my priority extension of the offseason, and at under $20M AAV it's even better than I expected. He's only 24 years old so plenty of room to grow still too.

Yeah that's fair, I have more faith in Williams because at least he is over 30" arms and his release is very very good. To me he just looks more like a natural Z than Noel does. It's possible he will be relegated to just a slot role but there is upside to be an outside WR IMO. Also we're talking about 2nd rounder with Noel vs 4th rounder for Williams, so the risk is mitigated.

The deep threat I'm looking for needs to be able to play outside and get around press. I don't see Noel doing that in the NFL. Kyle Williams remains the only true vertical threat that I'm interested in in this class. Admittedly he may have a difficult time dealing with physical coverage especially early on but the release package is great and he's shown an ability to separate downfield and outside. His frame can still fill out some too compared to Noel who's small size and length gives him a hard ceiling.

So I guess his whole thing is he played off ball LB and very recently switched to EDGE. https://www.nfl.com/prospects/oluwafemi-oladejo/32004f4c-4111-0743-ebea-7a82f613f94c Basically if you draft him you're betting on traits and potential for development.

Currently projected as a late 3rd rounder.

We've had this conversation about Shakir. It's really difficult if not impossible to make a living outside with sub-30" arms. Maybe Noel will be the one in a million but you have to draft based on a reasonable projection and for him that projection puts him in the slot. We just paid $15M AAV for Shakir to man that position so personally I'm not interested in spending a high pick on the same role.

The speed jumps off the screen but it's hard to see his fit in our offense. Strikes me as a slot only and that will make it hard to get on the field here.

Chris Simms said people he's talked to have mentioned major character concerns surrounding Isaiah Bond. He said he didn't know all the details but had heard it was "really bad." I've seen a couple other rumors along the same lines. It's odd that we're openly showing so much interest in him if that's true because usually we shy away from that type of player. Smokescreen?

Every team enters the draft with a glaring need at at least one position. That's inevitable. Baltimore desperately needs a CB across from Wiggins (assuming Humphrey is staying in the slot). KC desperately needs OL help. Cincy desperately needs help pretty much everywhere except QB and WR. There's no way you are going to plug holes at every position in FA with teams making it a point to lock up their own good players. I think people take the wrong lesson away from 2022. I know the common narrative is that we went in desperate at CB and that led to us forcing a bad pick. Me, I think we just misevaluated the player and nothing else needs to be said about it. I have no qualms about entering this draft with a need at CB. Beane needs to select a starting caliber player, that's his job.

FWIW Alpha I am not just generalizing. As you know I am very much in favor of adding WR talent. To the point that when I evaluate a WR prospect I am looking for reasons to fall in love with them. Especially WRs with vertical traits which to me remains a huge need. This draft class unfortunately is very limited in that regard. The only vertical WR I've somewhat fallen in love with is Kyle Williams so that's who I'd be targeting on day three. Thornton is one that I looked at because of his vertical traits and I'm just not that impressed. I even went back and watched the video you posted on page 3. To me all I see is a guy that can run straight past college CBs because he is bigger and faster than them. That advantage won't exist at the NFL level. Sure he can run some hitches and comebacks against off coverage in a college offense designed to scheme those routes open, but that doesn't mean he is actually versatile. Metcalf did test very poorly in the agility drills. The thing is that Thornton didn't even run them... and for good reason I'm sure. To me he is a pure straight liner and he isn't a special enough athlete to compensate for that lack of twitch, like Metcalf was/is. His size/speed combo is very good but it's not truly elite. His vertical jump was below average. He is a great college athlete but nothing NFL CBs are going to have difficulty handling since they won't really have to worry about covering a diverse route tree. And before we start throwing around comparisons to Metcalf and BTJ, let's acknowledge that Thornton is not close to that caliber of prospect. The consensus mock draft database has him in the 6th round... I know the consensus mock draft is not gospel but that tells you something. If he becomes even Marquez Valdes-Scantling at the next level that will be considered a positive outcome. So if we want to draft him on late day three with the intention of stashing him on the PS I'm fine with that but I'm not expecting much.

Metcalf was a generational athlete... There's a reason he went as high as he did, and would have gone much higher if not for medical flags. Guys like Thornton come out every year which is why he's a projected day three pick. He's going to find it much harder to blaze by DBs in the NFL where everyone is bigger and stronger. I wouldn't mind drafting him in round 5 but again I struggle to place him on the roster since he doesn't play special teams and has a very specific skill set that may not even translate.

To be a one trick pony downfield WR you need to be a generational athlete like DK Metcalf was coming out. Pickens has made it work too but he has an otherworldly combination of body control and hands. I don't see that with Thornton. He kind of reminds me of Bryan Edwards, same type of linear skill set with good but not generational contested catch ability. I remember Edwards was a popular prospect amongst Bills fans but he never did anything.

I was told we didn't even make an offer to Douglas and that there is zero interest in a reunion. What I haven't heard but what I suspect is that Douglas has way over-valued himself and he needs to be more realistic about his tape last year if he wants to sign anywhere. Cooper I haven't heard anything. I know Jeremy Fowler reported a while back that neither side was opposed to a reunion if it made sense. At this point I think he'll wait until after the draft and sign with a team desperate for a WR. Maybe that will be us depending on how the board falls.

My concern with a WR like him is he will always be a pure straight liner and it's hard to roster players like that who have such a limited skill set. Seemingly every year you get these day three WRs who are pure size and speed prospects, and fans always fall in love with them, but I can't remember the last one that amounted to anything. You'd think after 4 years of college he would have added more to his repertoire if he had it in him.

I hope so. Getting the Pats early with a new coaching staff and a young QB and their best WR still working back from an ACL tear, that is the best case scenario.

Well there is a difference between FA signings and rookie deal extensions. Players that enter FA are 99% of the time taking the most money offered. Players signing a year early on their rookie deal are accepting a little less than market value to protect themselves against injury over that final year.

There goes the theory that the RB market is catching up to the WR market. An over 30 WR coming off an ACL tear is getting a higher AAV than Saquon Barkley. The position really is THAT important.

I've grown to like Bond, he makes Curtis Samuel kind of redundant but it's not like Samuel did anything last year to prevent us from drafting a similar skill set. Higgins too I'd be very happy with but like you said he's not likely to be there. Is #62 too early to draft Kyle Williams? He's really the archetype of what I'm looking for in this draft. Most mocks have him as a 4th rounder but who knows how teams have these guys graded. His talent certainly jumps off the screen.

Yeah he's not the type of WR I'm interested in to fill out our room. Either a pure outside separator or a vertical threat, ideally both. Burden is another slot YAC guy. Reminds me of Laviska Shenault coming out, or Treylon Burks. There's a narrow path to success for that archetype of WR. In general I don't see any WRs that would excite me with our 1st round pick. None of the realistic options really fit what we need. I continue to believe it is a major position of need for our roster but I can't convince myself to fall in love with any of these guys. Even Matthew Golden, I like him but it feels like we'd have to pass on a potentially elite talent to reach for him at #30. At this point I'm in favor of best CB or best DL available at #30, and then take a WR with one of our 2nd round picks where the value matches up better.