HappyDays

I don't personally believe this SHOULD be DPI since it's underthrown and puts the DB in an impossible position... But it's almost always called.

I really have no idea what DPI is anymore

Wow, they have completely lost faith in Browning.

If they lose today, absolutely. That would give us a seeding advantage over the Chiefs if we end up winning the division. If the Jaguars and Chiefs lose one more game each we're likely to be the #2 seed (assuming we win out). After all that happened this season that would be a miraculous result.

I don't think that's true at all. The entire Eagles game was a lot of miraculous off schedule plays from Josh... We do not have the skill players to suddenly become a "three step drop, ball out" passing offense. Brady has legitimately been better than Dorsey, I don't think that's deniable. For me the best thing he's done is figure out his roster's strengths and heavily lean into them. Out of the 4 games Brady has coached, Davis only has a reception in one of them. That's insane... But it's clearly been the right choice, almost entirely removing him as a passing option and just using him as a blocker or downfield decoy. At the same time we've heavily involved Cook and Johnson both as runners and pass catchers. It's no coincidence our offense has looked unstoppable at times since Brady took over, despite a below average group of receivers. He found a couple things we do really well and doesn't out smart himself trying other things just for the sake of it. Dorsey on the contrary was seemingly calling plays at random with zero respect for his own players' strengths and weaknesses.

The Browns losing works because they still play the Bengals in week 18. Somebody has to lose that game to get to 7 losses. So in that scenario one of Browns/Bengals is guaranteed to be at 7 losses, one of Colts/Texans is guaranteed to be at 7 losses because they also still play each other, and that leaves us a wildcard spot at 11-6 no matter what else happens.

Correct. Everyone should remind themselves on a weekly basis this is a matchup league. Miami's OL is one of the worst in the league, they are not going to physically abuse Dallas's front like we did. That being said if looks like their starting NT Hankins will be out again so that will give Miami an advantage in the run game. Good news is that Malik Hooker was back at practice so he should be good to go. I think the Cowboys can limit Hill. Biggest thing for them is controlling the run on early downs. Their defense runs through an elite pass rush and they never had a chance to tee off against us. Knock Tua around a bit and they can turn the game in their favor. Let's not forget the Cowboys were looking like clearly the 2nd best team in the league before they came to Buffalo and got punched in the mouth. That level of play didn't completely disappear overnight. Miami will have their hands full.

I think part of it was also just the fact that they made it a point to get the RBs involved in the pass game. Defenses last year were still playing the Chiefs like they had Tyreek Hill, which was inexplicable. This even happened in the Super Bowl in a bout of coaching malpractice from the Eagles. It's like defenses didn't think Andy Reid and Mahomes would actually be patient enough to stick with that style of offense, but they did. Similar to what just happened in our favor against the Cowboys. But this year defenses have stopped playing with so much fear of the Chiefs deep passing game and the Chiefs just don't have the horses to beat good defenses straight up.

Then there's not much disagreement here. I don't think he's a great #2, but he is a legit #2. Davis isn't even that. It is not correct to say that the Chiefs had a below average group of weapons last year. The best pass catching TE of all time and an average #2 WR is better than anything Allen has ever had in his career, even 2020.

Most of my takes were right. I really liked the Kincaid pick and thought he would become the #2 pass target before long. That has already happened. I really liked the Floyd signing. I thought bringing back Jordan Phillips for any amount of money was a waste. I thought the WRs behind Diggs were still a huge weakness and would be the biggest factor in us having difficulties this year. I have never thought Davis is a #2 and somehow he has fallen below my already low expectations for him. As for things I got wrong, 3 major ones that I can think of: 1) I was pessimistic about Dawkins this year. Didn't think his conditioning was good enough. Instead he has turned in the best season of his career. 2) Like most people I did not think our MLB room had even a starting caliber player. At one point I said that if the Bills got even replacement level play out of the position it would exceed my expectations. Instead they have had if anything above average play. Well done to Bernard proving everyone wrong. 3) At one point I thought Isabella had a firmer claim to a roster spot than Shakir. Shakir has not been great by any means but he has proven to be rosterable as a depth WR at least.

Bills 38 Chargers 10 I think Kyle Allen will be handing off to Latavius Murrary with about 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter.

The Chiefs weapons were absolutely not below average last year. Not as good as when they had Tyreek Hill obviously. They still had the GOAT pass catching TE and yes JJSS who for some reason is underrated on this board. His issue throughout his career has been injuries and attitude, not talent. He's not elite at any one thing but he's very well rounded and can run all the routes. I mean he had over 1,400 yards receiving in his sophomore season... When healthy he is a very good #2. He had a 77.2% catch rate for the Chiefs last year. That's the kind of dependable production you want from a #2, as opposed to the coin flip production that we've gotten from ours. This year of course their weapons are below average. It's been a HUGE talking point across the NFL media landscape. Nobody thinks the Chiefs are a legitimate Super Bowl contender for that reason. So yeah that is my exact point. I haven't said he's a difference maker, but he is the apparent floor that you need as your #2 pass catcher to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the modern NFL. This past offseason after he signed with the Pats there was a report that the Pats found out his knee was "a mess" and was a "ticking time bomb." So once again his injury issues plus being in a moribund offense have made him less productive. The Chiefs got a bit lucky I will admit. They took him as an injury risk flyer for a low contract and it paid off big time. They may have gotten the last healthy season of his career... We tried the same tactic with Jamison Crowder and it went the opposite direction.

Easton Stick throwing to a cast of nobodies.

I guess what I mean is that it's easier to hide a below average OL than it is to hide a below average group of weapons. As evidenced by the fact that below average OLs have made it to the Super Bowl in recent years, but below average groups of weapons have not.

That first chart is saying the Eagles and Lions have worse pass protection than the Dolphins? That is so far removed from reality it makes me feel justified to ignore the entire thing. OL is really hard to grade in any kind of objective way. But I've watched enough football this year to know the Eagles and Lions are the two elite OLs in the league. To be fair I know that I said "slightly above average" but I will acknowledge I meant that in a subjective sense, not in an objective sense that contextualizes it with the rest of the league. Truth be told the line between good and bad OLs has been muddied quite a bit this year. The Lions and Eagles for my money are the only dominant OLs. Giants, Panthers, and Jets OLs are so bad they make the offense dysfunctional. Everyone else for the most part is kind of in this jumbled up blur of mediocrity. You can draw a few lines between teams here and there but nothing substantial. I would classify most OLs this year as "average to slightly above average" in the sense that most are not particularly good or bad. I think OL in general has been somewhat of a red herring on this board in recent years. It isn't the thing that needs to be elite to make a championship run. The Bengals went to the Super Bowl with a bad OL. The Dolphins this year have a bad OL and are still the most explosive offense in the league. The 49ers have the best LT in football but mediocrity the rest of the way down and still have the best overall offense in the league. You really just need a "good enough" OL to make a championship run, and the Bills certainly have that, but more importantly you also need other pieces around the QB that the Bills very clearly do not have.

I don't disagree with a lot of what you said here. It just comes down to priorities. Like I agree that scouting contested catch specialists is not a good use of resources. But most offenses have a pass catcher that can make them from time to time, in addition to whatever other receiving skills they have. We don't have anybody that can make contested catches at all. Which means if the intended target doesn't flat out beat his coverage man on the route, or isn't schemed wide open, the pass has no chance of being completed. That's an unusual weakness for a supposedly championship caliber offense. The OL is better than it was last year but it's not really a strength of the team. There are still a few too many 1v1 losses. The protection scheme still gets broken down by stunts and blitzes too frequently. And I'm fine with this... I don't think a team needs the best OL in football to compete for a championship. But I struggle to make the leap from "the OL is maybe slightly above average now" to "the offensive personnel isn't as bad as people say." Ditto for talking about Cook. Having a top 5ish RB is a luxury. It isn't the engine that drives championship offenses. And running the offense through a RB inevitably creates that low margin for error. I've noticed this year that holding calls more than ever before in the Josh Allen era are killing drives (I don't have stats on this, but that's how it has felt). In the past I always felt confident even on 3rd and 15, but this year it feels like drives are DOA with any kind of negative play. I don't think this is a coincidence. We are having to paper over some pretty large weaknesses in skill position personnel, and those weaknesses get exposed quickly with the slightest misstep. The low margin for error is still there... Brady has just done a better job of papering over it than Dorsey did. And if you agree with me about the low margin for error, you must agree there are personnel issues creating it. I know I'm a broken record on this but the lack of a true go-to #2 pass catcher is still a massive problem for the team. Every recent Super Bowl participant has had a #2 pass catcher that is much better than Davis (or Kincaid for that matter, who as a rookie is still learning). The worst in recent years was JuJu Smith-Schuster for the Chiefs last year. That's the floor and we are not meeting that floor right now. I think Kincaid can get there as early as next year, but talking about this season only it is a noticeable missing element for our offense. And this is a talking point I never thought I would be bringing up this year, but now I am concerned that our #1 pass catcher is not at the caliber of other team's #1s. The Diggs that we've seen in the past month especially has not been even a top 10 WR. If that trend with Diggs continues, we're running an offense with a slightly above average OL, where our best skill player is a RB, our best WR is somewhere outside the top 10, our 2nd best pass catcher is a rookie TE, and everyone else is a JAG or worse. That does not come close to fitting the profile of a championship offense. There is still a path to us winning the Super Bowl. Allen plays elite football the rest of the way, the defense plays like a top 5 defense, the run game continues to look like a top 5 run offense, Bass gets over whatever his issue has been this year, and we get a few bounces of the ball to go our way. But it's frustrating that the path isn't easier than that solely because Brandon Beane failed to bring in a substantial upgrade to our skill position personnel.

Chargers social media team wins again.

So in your mind did the Chiefs lose the ability to throw the ball deep the past two years because Mahomes suddenly forgot how to do that? Obviously it's an issue of personnel. Also to be fair defenses aren't letting teams take those shots anymore. The Dolphins are the only offense regularly getting their guys streaking wide open down field behind the defense. All the other deep shots I'm seeing completed, it's usually the intended receiver just being an alpha and winning above the rim. Nice work if you can get it... But if you don't have vertical speed or contested catch specialists, even with elite QB play your offense is going to look a lot like the Bills and Chiefs this year. A lot of horizontal passes that go nowhere and long periods of time where everything looks hard. I don't agree we have the same caliber of pass catchers that we had last year. Diggs and Davis both have played worse this year than they did last year. For Davis in particular this is almost inexplicable but he has been flat out awful in several games this year. Shakir has been okay. Harty has been an afterthought. Sherfield never seems to know what route he's supposed to be running. Of those players only Shakir is better than the version of himself from last year but he's still a JAG. I will agree the OL this year is the best of Allen's career, as is the running game. Brady is maximizing the personnel much better than Dorsey did too. It is not a talent devoid offense at the level of the Giants or the Panthers for example, but no one objective would say offensive talent is a strength of the team either. It is below par compared to other recent championship contenders.

This points to another problem in our offense, we don't have anyone that can win at the catch point. Either Diggs wins his route or one of the other guys gets schemed open or forgotten about by the defense. I can't think of many offenses that don't have a go to guy where if you see him 1v1 you can just toss the ball in his general direction and there's a better than even chance he'll come down with it. Kincaid was advertised as a great contested catch guy but he isn't there yet. Similarly we don't have anyone that truly scares defenses with the ball in their hands. Cook is the best we have in that area but he is never going to catch a 5 yard slant and turn it into a 50 yard TD. The more I think about it the more perplexed I am by this thread. We have one pass catcher that consistently separates at an above average level and even he has not been dominant. We have zero contested catch specialists. We have zero elite YAC guys. As a result, the offense has a crazy low margin for error.

This season, for sure. I thought Diggs was easily a top 5 WR from 2020-2022. This year something has been off, especially lately. He has never been great at contested catches and now he is having trouble separating consistently too. It isn't just because he's bracketed. He wasn't bracketed at all against KC and did nothing 1v1 against Sneed. Drops have suddenly become a HUGE problem for him. There's been at least one 3rd down conversion in each of the last three games that he flat out dropped... Other than his former reputation, what evidence is there that he's performing like a top 10 WR right now let alone top 5?

Not this year though. Hill Brown Jefferson Chase Cooper Adams Wilson Samuel Those are pretty clearly the most dominant WRs in the league right now, with varying degrees of QB play obviously. Then you have guys in the next tier like Lamb, Evans, Aiyuk. Diggs is somewhere in that tier right now, for my money closer to the bottom than the top. He just hasn't been anywhere close to his dominant self in recent weeks. So I really don't agree at all that we have a top 10 group of weapons. Middle of the pack IMO. Davis has been invisible in like half of our games this year. Kincaid is a rookie, any hopes that he would immediately take over as our #2 pass catcher have not come to fruition. Honestly Cook might be our best skill player right now. If he can play as well as he did against the Cowboys for the rest of the season and through the playoffs, maybe we can be the first team in a long time to make it to the Super Bowl without a legitimate #2 pass catcher. That weakness certainly lowers the margin of error though.

Or what they can do when the ball is in the air... Drew Lock managed to out duel Jalen Hurts last night because his pass catchers made several exceptional catches on their game winning drive. You could probably count the number of exceptional plays by Bills pass catchers on one hand this year... Ditto for the Chiefs. For my money Allen and Mahomes have pretty clearly been the most valuable QBs this year and it isn't particularly close. I think the MVP voters should give it to a skill player though just as a nod to how important those players have been this year in particular. If they give it to Purdy might as well re-name the award at this point.

Yeah he is not a tackle breaker. That isn't ever going to be his game. But he is so smooth that he's consistently able to glide around or through arm tackles before they have a chance. He's also gotten very good at falling forward for extra yards while getting tackled.