HappyDays

This is obviously false. What are we even doing here? Again, he had ZERO dropped interceptions on the season. If defenders can catch his passes, his teammates that are paid to catch his passes can do it too. It's crazy how many excuses fans come up with to avoid admitting that his pass catchers simply weren't very good this year. Shakir was probably the best of them over the course of the entire season, and that represents a huge failure by Beane.

Or we lock up our seed early and get to rest our starters in week 18 like the Chiefs did this past year. Or even finish with the #1 seed for the first time ever under McDermott, by escaping those persistent mid-season lulls. I hope this past season has caused a lot of people to re-think their mindset of "just get to the playoffs and we'll be fine." Nothing is guaranteed in this league and getting to avoid KC until the conference championship is worth pursuing.

The Chiefs defense gave up less points in 3 playoff games than the Bills defense gave up in 2 playoff games.

Brady is the most consistent player I've ever watched. That's what made him great. Obviously QBs like Allen and Mahomes can make plays that Brady can only dream of, but they also make mistakes he would never make. If you're starting a team with very little supporting talent on offense I would take Mahomes because he can do more with less. But starting a team with decent or better supporting talent I would take Brady over any other QB in history. Fun fact about the two - Brady was the opposing QB in Mahomes' first regular season loss, first playoff loss, and first Super Bowl loss. That will make a nice trivia question 20 years from now.

He wasn't seeing double teams down the stretch. L'Jarius Sneed flat out erased him in the divisional round, the latest Chiefs CB to do so in a playoff game. I'm hopeful the injury narrative is true. If the Diggs we got down the stretch is just who he is now, his contract is almost as big an albatross as Von Miller. But this is the predictable outcome of massively under-investing in the WR position over the years. We went from lamenting our #2 WR situation to wondering if we even have a #1 still. Our WR depth chart as it stands right now is arguably worse than it was in 2019. Which is why Beane simply has to spend 2 high draft picks on the position this year. There is no other solution.

Then isn't it weird that literally every defender that got two hands on a Josh Allen pass this season managed to hang onto it? How do you explain that if Allen throws the ball too hard for his own receivers to catch?

Most mocks have him in the 3rd or 4th. Mock Draft Database has his consensus pick as #86.

Harty too. Everyone on here has forgotten he is still under contract next year. That being said he carries a $5.57M cap hit so I doubt we will keep him for that. My guess is we see a patented Brandon Beane pay cut down to something more reasonable, maybe $3.5M with a $1M void year in 2025 similar to what we did with Tim Settle.

My ideal draft scenario is Franklin or Legette R1, then someone in the mold of Polk/Rice/Baker in R2 or R3. I want elite physical skills in R1, then round it out with a route running or possession receiver on day two.

Rams? My mind went there first just because they haven't had a lot of picks in those rounds lately.

I'll admit I have a thing for massive men that play in the trenches. I'm a believer in size. Technique of course matters, but ultimately it's just hard to move a 360+ pound human being multiple times a game. Same reason I liked the Torrence pick last year. And I think large DTs have become even more important these days with undersized LBs becoming the standard across the league. But as usual it's a matter of the positional drop off from 1st round to later in the draft and in free agency. Capable 1Ts are not that hard to find, and elite 1Ts don't win games on their own. Defensive line is arguably just as big a need as WR right now but if we're going that route in the 1st round it has to be a pass rusher. Not a gap defender. If Sweat can develop into a Vita Vea type where he can dominate both areas then of course it would be a great pick.

I'm going to be so mad when we draft him in the 1st round.

A couple nice reps from Legette here:

DT T'Vondre Sweat is getting rave reviews today. He is likely to go in the 25-45 range. I could see the Bills really liking him as much as fans would hate the pick in R1... Profiles as a monstrous 1T at the next level.

Where do you see 73%? ESPN's win probability never has us at more than 48.5% win probability on that final drive, but that's besides the point. The only reason we got there is because we got incredibly lucky on one single play that completely changed the game. Teams that dominate their opponent can still occasionally lose because of one or two very swing-y plays. Still the domination happened. Our defense has been dominated by the Chiefs every time we've faced them in the playoffs. Eventually that has to change. Relying on an absolutely perfect showing from the offense AND one or two very lucky plays is not a realistic standard for victory. Our TDs came on drives of 11 plays, 12 plays, and 15 plays. Our last drive even if Allen had hit Shakir it would have been a 14 play TD drive. That's an incredicly difficult needle to thread consistently and not realistic to expect it to keep up. The Chiefs on the other hand had TD drives of 5 plays, 6 plays, and 8 plays. So again, the game did not just come down to the final series. Any way you choose to look at it, they dominated us.

That's where the disconnect is. I don't agree that our losses to the Chiefs in the playoffs have come down to one or two plays. In every respect but the final score, the games were not close. It's like the Ravens/Texans wildcard game this year. The score may have been equal at halftime, but the teams were not close even in the 1st half. We talk about luck mattering in the playoffs. Well, the Bills got lucky against the Chiefs both times. In the divisional round in 2022 the Chiefs lost 4 points on a missed FG and a missed XP. Without that, instead of being an all-time classic it's just a frustrating game where the Chiefs slowly pull ahead and never let up. This year we again got lucky when Mecole Hardman stupidly fumbled the ball through the endzone. Without that, they go up by 10 and the game is effectively over. Today we're all talking about a horrific fake punt effort and abysmal defense ending the game, instead of hemming and hawing over how the Bills should have handled the final 2 minutes. I get that the natural inclination is to boil any one score game down to the final series, but that's not really accurate. That final series only mattered because we got lucky. The truth is the Chiefs dismantled us in that game from start to finish. Our offense kept up for as long as it could thanks to an unreal effort by Allen (with honorable mention to Shakir), but ~8 yards per play versus ~4 yards per play, eventually the first team is just naturally going to pull away, unless the turnover margin or something like that is heavily favoring the 2nd team. So it was not a game that just came down to one or two plays. It was an abysmal defensive showing from start to finish, along with an abysmal special teams play, that gave us almost no chance to win.

Charlie Campbell reported Hall has major character concerns: https://walterfootball.com/nfl-hot-press-2024-senior-bowl-rumors-monday.php