HappyDays

No doubt.

If Allen played the way he does in the playoffs all the time he would have a short lived career. The irritating thing is that he has to play that way at all, because the weapons around him aren't good enough.

It isn't unfortunate for Thad Lewis, who gets much needed interview experience with one of the best organizations in the league. Maybe he surprises us and we peg him for future jobs. Things change very quickly in the NFL. I am a proponent of interviewing as many qualified candidates as possible since there is nothing to lose.

1) Allen/Mahomes 3) Jackson/Burrow 5) Stafford 6) Herbert 7) Stroud 8)) Prescott/Love 10) Cousins The rankings with 2 QBs I couldn't see enough of a gap between them to separate the two. If I took injury history into account I would have Burrow all the way down at #6 but I just went based on pure abilities.

I think on reflection I would prefer to move on from Brady. It's nothing he did specifically. I just still see an overall lack of crispness in the finer details of the offense and that's what separates champions from divisional round losers. The routes aren't precise in a way that opens up other routes, the players aren't always on the same page, there appears to be an overall lack of accountability. I think Brady is a perfectly fine play designer and play caller. But I want a true coach at the position. Someone that the players respect and fear. Brady is probably too young to have that kind of reputation amongst 20-something multimillionaires. He still has his dues to pay in the league. So for me I think my preference is Eric Bieniemy. He has a reputation that players don't enjoy working for him. I take that as a positive. He isn't afraid to hold anybody accountable, not even Mahomes when he was in KC. That more than an offensive whiz kid is what I think this offense needs to be more consistent on a week to week basis. He learned under the best of the best and for a time was even making Sam Howell look competent. He is a complete 180 from the coaching styles of Dorsey and Brady... maybe that's just what we need.

Well we had stopped them on the previous drive, twice actually because of an incorrect DPI call. McDermott had finally figured out (too late) that Siran Neal needed to be on Kelce and Dorian Williams needed to be on the field. We had found a combination that at least had the capability of stopping them. It is just a lot to ask of the offense. It's hard enough to score TDs against an elite defense in the playoffs. Asking them to do it within a certain amount of time remaining on the clock is not fair. And FWIW the Chiefs were not giving up easy dink and dunk on the previous several drives, they were calling run blitzes and sitting on short routes. End of the day we had an opportunity for a TD and took it. I can't fault anyone for that decision.

Yeah, what about a totally different throw in a totally different situation. Good point.

Seemingly a lot of people on here don't understand what a QB's job is on any given play. They think QBs are playing Madden and have a top down view of the field. If anyone thinks he was supposed to throw to Diggs right away they are flat out wrong. That part of it is not even up for debate.

Allen had 4 game winning drives this year (should have been more but whatever). He has 19 in his career. Mahomes had 2 game winning drives this year. He has 16 in his career. Can't wait to see how you try and talk yourself out of this one.

You know it wasn't his decision, right? He is following progressions. Diggs is clearly like 3rd in the progression. Shakir is 1st and they got the exact coverage (cover 2) that they wanted to throw the TD. If people want to criticize Brady for being too aggressive with the play call I guess that's a conversation we can have... But it's patently ridiculous that we're asking the offense to thread an impossible needle of scoring a TD with just the right amount of time on the clock, all because we don't trust our head coach's defense to make a stop. I place the blame for that problem where it belongs. A lot of people are to blame for this loss. Allen, Brady, and Shakir are the exceptions.

It seems like Dan Quinn will end up in Seattle and Ben Johnson in Washington. I'm surprised Vrabel didn't get a job, seems like the Panthers were the only team that gave him due consideration and he may have not wanted to be part of that awful situation. Next year I expect Vrabel and Mike MacDonald will be the hottest names on the head coaching market. Perhaps Bobby Slowik too if he follows up on a great first year.

Unfortunately I really don't think they can. Last year there was a path to affording Hopkins if they pulled the right levers and approached free agency the right way. This year the most cap space I could create with realistic moves using Over The Cap's simulator was $8-9million. And that was with me pulling pretty much available lever that makes any kind of sense. A good chunk of that available cap space will have to go towards replacing the players we lose and the draft class. I don't see any way we can make a splash signing. Beane missed his chance last year and now he's stuck in a position where he HAS to draft a WR high. It's non-negotiable.

I wouldn't say instant. They are in major cap trouble this year. I would bet the plan is to take an intentional step back for one season while Harbaugh institutes his culture, and then be competitive in 2025.

I am going into next year assuming that the Diggs we got down the stretch is just who Diggs is now. If he gets back to the elite WR he was, great. But I think the Bills have to assume the worst and plan accordingly. With that in mind, they have so badly mismanaged the WR room that I think they need to come away from this draft with two different types of WR - one with elite speed, and one with true alpha X receiver potential. And I don't mean some late round flyer. Get two high end WR prospects in this draft. Increase the odds that you come out of the draft with a true home run at the position. Enough is enough. Having researched the WR prospects as much as I could this week, my preferred draft outcome is Troy Franklin in R1, and then one of Ja'Lynn Polk or Brenden Rice in R2. That gets us the elite speed guy, and then a true outside WR with alpha traits that hopefully develop further. How about this offense heading into 2024: WR1 Diggs WR2 Franklin WR3 Shakir WR4 Polk/Rice TE1 Kincaid TE2 Knox RB1 Cook Now we are really getting somewhere. Probably will add a cheaper veteran WR too, someone like Noah Brown to round out the room.

When have I dismissed this?

Reid was known for not being able to finish the job. 5 NFCCG appearances and 1 Super Bowl appearance. He did that with QBs that were not as good as Josh Allen. McDermott with Josh Allen has reached 1 AFCCG. It's not remotely comparable. Even Spagnuolo is a better defensive coach than McDermott. So we have exactly zero coaching advantages over them. You're the one that asked what explains the difference between the Bills and Chiefs over the past few years. I guess you've landed on QB. For me, even if you want to say Mahomes on the whole has been better than Allen, it's pretty obvious that the drop off between the rosters and the drop off between the coaching staffs is much greater than whatever drop off exists between Mahomes and Allen. FWIW I think Allen and Mahomes have alternated who was better than who in each season since 2020. Mahomes was better in 2020 and 2022, Allen was better in 2021 and 2023. It is not enough of a difference in either direction to account for the vast difference in playoff success between the respective franchises. Sure, we can make up extremely unlikely scenarios in our head all day. Kelvin Benjamin was with the Chiefs after he left the Bills. He was great there, right? Kadarius Toney really turned it around in KC, yeah? Tyreek Hill fell off the map when he left? I don't know why it is so hard for so many fans to evaluate talent independently. Mahomes is an elite player. So is Allen. You can still watch the players around them and make judgments about their abilities. It's not that complicated. And it figures that the one year the offensive talent around Mahomes is somewhat comparable to the offensive talent around Allen that the Chiefs defense becomes elite. Forget switching QBs in yesterday's game. Just switch the defenses and nothing else and it is plainly obvious who ends up winning the game.

No they didn't? Hill and Kelce were already known as game changers. Hill just had his best season as a pro without Mahomes throwing him the ball. I really have no idea why you would believe this. Game changing players matter more than anything else as far as winning the whole thing. A close 2nd is game changing coaches. The Bills simply don't come close to matching up in either area.

Coaching for sure, but also top end talent on the roster. I'm talking about true game changers. The Chiefs had: Mahomes Kelce Jones Sneed I might consider adding their entire IOL into that group too. Feels wrong to include the individual players, but as a whole they were a game changer. The Bills after Milano went down had: Allen Top end talent and top end coaching is what wins Super Bowls. The Bills had neither. The Chiefs had both. Very simple analysis to be honest.

Unfortunately Shaw I'm not sure this is the case. Every playoff loss the defense has looked the same - the opposing offense has moved the ball at will almost without resistance. What makes me especially concerned is that this was the worst offense the Bills have faced in any of their playoff losses, and yet they turned in their worst defensive performance yet. So it is getting worse, not better. The players are not prepared and Reid is exploiting our scheme with ease. I'm kind of sick of hearing about McDermott's growth mindset. I haven't seen any growth from him as a head coach. I'll voice the concern that I know every Bills fan feels deep down - what if the Josh Allen era ends with 0 Super Bowl wins? Nothing is guaranteed in this brutal league. Every season that passes gets us one year closer to Allen declining from his peak and eventually retirement. This regime has now had 4 swings at the bat since Allen broke out as an elite QB, and they are hitting nothing but singles. We already have one historically great QB that never won it all. Having two on our record would be a total gut punch. And so the anxiety is always there in the back of mind that we are wasting the best years of the best QB in franchise history. Two elite playoff runs from Allen ended at the divisional round. That isn't acceptable. McDermott and Beane are both good at what they do. But you need greatness from at least one of those positions to win it all.

We are up against it right now. I used Over The Cap's salary table calculator and pulled as many levers as possible. Restructure Allen, cut White (post-6/1 designation), cut Morse, cut Poyer, cut Harty, cut Hines, extend McGovern to lower his cap hit this year. Even after all that we are only $8.8 million under the cap. No way we can restructure Miller or Diggs. Restructuring Dawkins could open up another $6 million... but that is a risk at his age. They could cut Miller with a post-6/1 designation to open up another $6 million, but now you are getting to a point where we don't have a playable roster. Beane screwed himself with some of the bad contracts he gave out over the last few years. It isn't like last offseason where pulling the right levers and approaching free agency the right way would have allowed us to afford Hopkins. Guys like Pittman and Higgins and Evans are off the menu. As it is we will have to pay for replacements for the players we cut just to get our roster in order. So we're entering an offseason where we're likely going to be worse at certain positions, older at others, and no means to significantly improve anywhere. Meanwhile other competitors in the AFC have a bunch of cap space. The outlook is bleak. Truth be told Beane will simply have to nail this draft and we will likely have to rely on rookies to develop quickly. A WR in the 1st round is practically a necessity, and they will have to hit the ground running. Good news is Beane has done really well in the last two drafts. Cook, Bernard, Shakir, Benford, Kincaid, and Torrence all look like high level starters with the ability to become even more. He needs to find probably 3 more in this upcoming draft just to keep pace with the conference, and a WR must be one of them.

Chris Jones makes game winning plays in the playoffs. The Bills have nobody like that. Nobody steps up in critical moments, only Allen and Shakir in this game. So frustrating.

I guess I just don't see any room for improvement at OC. I agree we could probably have much better offensive coaching, and the video shows clear examples of this, but that would have to come from the head coach. Elite OCs all become head coaches. Swap Brady for another slightly above average OC. It won't make a difference. Maybe we strike gold and stumble into an elite OC for a year. The next year he'll be hired as a head coach elsewhere and the carousel will keep spinning round and round. So if McDermott is here for the long haul I guess we'll just have to settle for good enough and heavily invest in offensive talent to make up for the coaching gap that will exist between us and other Super Bowl contenders.

I don't care about Ty Dunne and I think it's pretty obvious that he is writing hit pieces on McDermott because it's good for business. But I will say I think you can summarize McDermott as a head coach with one play - giving the ball to Hamlin on a fake punt in a critical moment of a playoff game. That is who McDermott is. He makes decisions that are safe and comfortable and warm. He makes decisions rooted in emotion and a misguided belief in destiny. That's nice for the Disney channel. For the National Football League it's a joke. I don't want a coach that thinks he's the star of a feel good sports movie. I want a coach that understands he's going to war.

This is absolutely not the case. 8.5 yards per play versus 4.7 yards the play. Our drives had to be slow and methodical and error-free, and end with magical plays close to the goalline. The Chiefs were picking up massive chunks with ease. Their TDs came easy. Don't let the final score fool you. It was a total mismatch for the defenses, special teams, skill players, and coaching. Only one superior factor on our side kept it even on the scoreboard.

That's kind of an impossible needle to thread though. It's hard enough to score TDs against a great defense in the playoffs. Trying to do it with an exact amount of time left on the clock is not realistic. The offense's only goal on that drive was to score a TD. If they did what they were supposed to and the defense ultimately loses the game as time run out then the axe will fall where it should. If I would criticize one thing about that final series it's that we shouldn't have tried to get 9 yards on 3rd down. That's what the Chiefs are expecting. The plan should have been to pick up the easiest 6-7 yards possible and then go for it on 4th down. But as I've said elsewhere the game wasn't really lost on that final drive. One team picked up 8.5 yards per play (excluding kneeldowns). The other team picked up 4.7 yards per play. That kind of yards per play discrepancy is almost impossible to overcome, and the only reason we even had a chance was because of several individual elite plays from Allen (and Shakir) and Mecole Hardman stupidly fumbling through the endzone. In every respect but the final score it was not a close game.