HappyDays

Yeah I pointed out in another thread the Chargers scored 4 FGs on drives that started at or before the 50, and we allowed a TD instead of a FG after Harty's fumble. That is 16 points legitimately given up by the defense against a UDFA QB throwing to his #3 and #4 WRs and down to his 3rd center. Inexcusable performance against that crew IMO. I hope McDermott learned something after the first Patriots debacle. That was probably the worst defensive performance of any team this season. I am begging him not to call a bunch of stupid and predictable blitzes that Zappe simply dumps off for chunk yardage. I want him to call more man than usual - against this group of weapons, I would much rather trust our guys to stick to their man than give Zappe easy holes in zone coverage to exploit. On offense this is one of those weeks where I want Allen to play reserved. No need to push the envelope with cross body deep throws and the like, not with Bailey Zappe on the other side. Smart conservative football and just wear the Pats down slowly. I would lean heavily into throws to the RBs and TEs in this one. I don't expect Diggs and Davis to suddenly become separation machines this week. Take every point available in this one. 4th and goal from the 2, kick the FG. Don't make the same mistake Denver made. Again it is Bailey Zappe on the other side. Any score is a huge positive.

Honestly at this point I'm just hoping he's ready for next season. If he's admitting his knee isn't where he wants it to be, it's probably too late to expect it to suddenly turn around this year.

Do I have to say the facts of the game conditions out loud, or can I assume you actually know the answer and are just having fun with this? You're the one boiling it down to one singular game, the 2021 AFCCG against the Chiefs. All I've said is that expecting Allen to consistently play at his highest level for four consecutive playoff games is not realistic, yet that is seemingly the only thing that many people on here will be satisfied with. Again I have seen multiple people on here say that his performance against the Eagles wasn't good enough because he threw one INT. And even that performance is not a realistic expectation for four consecutive playoff games. Every QB is going to stumble at some point over a 4 game sample size. So when people say they don't know if Allen can be "consistent enough" to win a Super Bowl, I would like to know what kind of consistency they are expecting. If he randomly drops the ball at midfield in a playoff game that we lose, is he the reason we lost?

The defense was not good in the 2020/2021 playoffs. The Colts offense produced more than their season average, Allen is the main reason we stole that game. The Ravens game was not a real game of football, come on now. Then we gave up 38 points in the AFCCG, nobody on the team at that point was ready to compete with the Chiefs. I once again am begging Bills fans to please watch other Super Bowl contending teams and develop proper expectations.

It is extremely rare that a QB is consistently great over several consecutive playoff games and the Super Bowl. The team has to pick up the QB at some point. Just from the last 3 Super Bowl winners: 2020 - Stafford partially just got lucky that a game losing INT was dropped in the NFCCG. He then threw two bad INTs in the Super Bowl. His team still won. 2021 - Brady threw 3 INTs in the NFCCG. And let's be honest he wasn't particularly great in that Super Bowl, his defensive line won them the game. 2022 - Mahomes missed time in the divisional round against the Jaguars. His backup QB led a TD drive and his defense held. Against the Bengals in the AFCCG he missed several relatively easy passes and inexplicably dropped the ball, giving the Bengals the ball for free at midfield. Again his defense held and he got the win. He only had 182 passing yards in the Super Bowl. There is a pervasive belief on here that if Allen doesn't play at his absolute best for four consecutive playoff games, we will never win a Super Bowl. That is not close to realistic. Nor has it ever been the case for other Super Bowl winners. For example I have seen people here blame him for the loss against the Eagles because of his one INT. If the expectation is for Allen to play BETTER than that for four consecutive games, we can go ahead and pack it in for the season and probably just get rid of McDermott now because we will never win a Super Bowl under this regime if that performance isn't good enough.

Bills 23 Patriots 17 I'll be honest, I've been terrible predicting games this year. Even ones where I've gotten the result right I have been very wrong about what that result looked like. So I'm just making a conservative prediction here. Nothing too crazy on either side, just a somewhat clunky defensive struggle where we make a few more plays to pull it out at the end. I don't really trust our passing offense at all right now. I think our defense can mostly shut down the Pats offense but I'm not going to predict total domination. I'm thinking it's 17-10 to start the 4th quarter and we just tack on a couple FGs to put the game out of reach. All that being said I won't be surprised if we totally blow them out. I just can't bring myself to predict it.

So there you go, this was Payton's plan all along. He was just waiting for the right moment.

Keeping in mind that literally every single one of his interceptable passes has been caught by the defender, he still has less value lost to negative plays than any other QB in the NFL. He also has the best EPA per play against top 12 defenses. MVP for sure if the award actually meant what its name implies.

So to be clear, your defense of McDermott is that he can't win a Super Bowl unless he is gifted the best roster in the NFL to go along with an elite QB? Interestingly I share the same opinion as you but take away the opposite conclusion. Either way I'm tabling this discussion until after the season ends. A competitive AFCCG appearance should be the expected floor this year. Poor coaching has already lost us one game against a championship caliber opponent in the past month. If it happens again in the playoffs we will just have to accept that that is who McDermott is.

@Zerovoltz nailed his prediction:

Carr's #1 WR (Olave) has more yards per game, more yards per target, and a higher PFF grades than Diggs this year. In the last 5 games Olave has 95.6 YPG to Diggs 40.4 YPG. Carr would likely see his production decrease in this offense and we would have maybe 5 wins on the season so far. My guess is we would finish 6-11 with him at QB. Allen's supporting cast has been even worse than advertised, especially over the past month. Maybe 1 or 2 other QBs would have led us to a win over the Chargers. And that was one of Allen's lesser games on the season.

1) Tyreek Hill - He's been the best overall player in the league this year IMO. 2) TJ Watt - He is the primary reason the Steelers have won any games this year. 3) Josh Allen - Carrying a talent deficient offense. He has more total TDs than 25 TEAMS, which is insane. 4) Myles Garrett - The Browns would not have a playoff spot right now if not for Garrett's play this year IMO. But like with Watt defensive players get overlooked. 5) Deebo Samuel - CMC is the common selection but #1 WR is a lot more important than RB. He is by far the best YAC player in the league. The 49ers lost all 3 games that he missed which makes the case for him. Honorable mention: Matt Stafford - He has made a ton of ridiculous throws this year to win them games they had no business winning. The Rams somehow having a playoff spot right now despite very little talent across the team is an underrated story, and Stafford is the primary reason for it.

I haven't heard a peep about Allen's incredible game winning drive with two tough as nails throws on 3rd and 10 to get us into FG range. All I've heard talk about is his turnovers. Even from Bills fans, it's like everyone just takes his clutchness for granted now.

Yes, and I'm afraid you've done just that. Earlier in the thread when you said "Allen has a hall of fame talent in his offense," that is your emotional connection to the Bills getting in the way. That's you having watched Diggs play since 2020 and applying all of that pre-conceived experience to this year, when in fact this year he has not been close. Having opinions borne from being too close to your favorite team goes in both directions. The reality is that Mahomes has the hardware so it isn't exactly difficult to make the case that he has been better than Allen. Personally I think they have alternated since Allen broke out. Mahomes was better in 2020 and 2022, Allen was better in 2021 and this year. You still have not fully reckoned with the fact that Mahomes has had a massive advantage in the talent around him over the course of his career compared to Allen over the course of his. Don't just brush off that he had four years of: 1) The greatest pass catching TE of all time 2) The greatest speed WR of all time 3) The most experienced offensive play caller of all time. Any one of those, especially the first two, gave him a huge statistical edge to start his career. Look at what Tua has done just since getting one of those advantages. Mahomes had all three. Diggs has been a great player, but let's be realistic Allen has never had anything approaching the three major advantages that Mahomes had to start his career. We're talking literally three greatest of all time candidates. Turning that into 50 passing TDs and a Super Bowl is still a huge accomplishment. I am not trying to take away from the greatness of Mahomes. But please give some respect to that supporting cast and how it influenced some of the statistical edges he now has over Allen.

I think Sherfield has had trouble learning our system. Too many instances this season, even late in the season when he should know better, of him not being where he's supposed to be or running the wrong route. It has made him an afterthought. The Shanahan system is known to be very player friendly. I never expected him to be a major contributor but I expected his floor to be near what he did in Miami. I think Beane has done a poor job of scouting the intelligence of players he brings in. We've had a lot of dopes over the years. It's one thing to watch film of a player in a particular system. He and his staff need to do a better job of talking to these players and feeling out if they're smart enough to perform consistently at a high level.

He has unfortunately been a borderline #1 since the London game. There are maybe 12 WRs in the league that I would classify as true #1s. Diggs has been just outside that group for a couple months now.

Kelce is toast but you're using Diggs as your counter example? Next time just tell us you haven't watched a lot of Bills or Chiefs games this year and save us the effort.

Nobody on the Bills other than Allen is playing close to a Hall of Fame level this year. That is a patently ridiculous thing to say.

Their defense is seriously impressing me. No hand waving away their performance tonight. The offense I agree with you, they have been gifted several easy opportunities and the 49ers seemingly are not even trying to contain Lamar in the pocket.

Not really close to calling him a #1 at this point. A slot only WR of his stature, he will have to be as good as Cooper Kupp to earn that label.

Whelp this is turning into the most impressive win of the season for any team. I hope the Ravens defense has the same energy next week. Fighting for the #1 seed, I'm sure they will bring their A game.

Yeah they have four 1st rounders as their WR depth chart. They're lacking a true #1 though.

The 49ers seemingly forgot that you have to contain Lamar Jackson. I've criticized McDermott plenty but this is something he understands better than anyone.

Another dropped INT from a defense not playing the Bills. Do INTs actually happen to other teams or are they a myth? Because every time I'm watching a game I watch one hit the turf.

I'm well aware turnovers matter lol. I'm just saying the turnovers conversation around Josh Allen this year in particular is WAY overblown. He has like 12 interceptable passes thrown this year. That is not a bad rate at all when he's also cashing in 40+ TDs and carrying a talent deficient offense on his back. Every single year the best QBs in the league also top the INTs chart. Allen is usually a couple ahead of the others but that slight difference is not really significant in the context of an entire season. His difference in total TDs on the other hand is massively significant.