HappyDays

The crazy thing is that the best thing for our offense might be bringing that pass rate down even more. We still run the ball with Cook better than we do anything else. They've tried opening up the pass game in the last two weeks - the PA rate has gone up, downfield throw percentage has gone up, etc. - and it just isn't working. I'm going to quote @GunnerBill by saying it's not the offense I prefer but it's the one we need to run right now. When Kincaid is healthy 12 personnel should be our base. I'd start making Palmer (when healthy) and Shakir the highest snap WRs in that formation. Pound the run until defenses go into their heavy personnel and then throw it over the LBs. Pepper in some targets to Palmer on favorable 1v1 looks outside to keep defenses honest. If we're not going to trade for a legit WR there's no sense in trying to change our whole approach. We should instead lean even further into what we do well and try to ride that as much as possible.

Yep KC's offense took people by surprise in 2022. Defenses were still playing them like they had Tyreek Hill. In 2023 defenses adjusted to take away the easy short field completions and suddenly their offense started to struggle. So since then they have invested a ton into their WR room, and now right when their defense has fallen off a bit they have a passing offense to make up for it. That's what a forward thinking organization does. Adjust on the fly to work with the pieces you have, but don't get complacent just because you're able to make those pieces work for a short time. The Bills on the contrary are stuck in neutral. Whatever worked last year, just do it again. It turns out simply running everything back was the wrong strategy, as many people on here predicted. KC every year takes on a new identity.

KC scored 22.2 PPG in 2023 (14th) and 23.1 PPG in 2024 (12th). That's nice for them that they can have an offense outside the top 10 and still compete for Super Bowls. The Bills very clearly are not built that way. We need to score 30 PPG bare minimum to have a chance.

Rapp is missing 25% of his tackles this season! It's bizarre because last year he only missed 3.6% of tackles. That kind of regression is inexplicable. I have no idea what's going on there but Rapp even at his best isn't such a good player that you should stay patient and hope he figures it out. He needs to be replaced ASAP. I'm fine with a replacement level player at safety, but Rapp has become a liability.

Funny enough if Hamlin was healthy I'd put him in over Rapp right now. Hamlin has his athletic limitations but he plays his assignment and hits his landmarks, which is more than Rapp is doing this season. He also wouldn't be missing 25% of his tackles like Rapp is.

Related to this, they need to start treating Ty Johnson as the player he is this year and not the player he was last year. The player that Allen called "the best 3rd down back in the league" is not there anymore. He's had a few drops, he hasn't always been on the same page as Allen, his vision and his contact balance both look worse to my eyes. I think it's time to see what Cook can do on 3rd downs. I know he can't block but get him out on routes and see how it goes. Joe makes the point in his podcast that if teams are going to have a spy mirroring Allen, that should give us automatic space in whatever area that spy is vacating. Cook is the best player we have to take advantage of that space.

There has been mind numbingly bad game management from both teams in the final 5 minutes of this game

So I guess Stroud is just bad now? Also watch the LT on this play for an easy laugh:

This is hilarious:

The weird thing is that the defensive identity and the offensive identity are opposites. On defense it's "prevent big plays, force the opponent to be efficient and mistake-free." On offense it's "be efficient and mistake-free, don't hunt big plays." In other words we've tried to build the exact style of offense that our defense is designed to force the opponent into. Very bizarre.

Indy hired Lou Anarumo and went from 24th in PPG to 8th. Atlanta hired Jeff Ulbrich and went from 23rd to 8th (tied with Indy). San Fran hired Robert Saleh and went from 29th to 7th. Yeah it's the coaching. 100%.

Given Stephen Ross' history, I wouldn't be surprised if his plan is to leave McDaniel in place all year to maximize the tank. Interim coaches occasionally give their team a bump. I think he is gunning for the #1 pick.

This is bad news for us IMO. Always tough for a defense to prepare for a replacement QB on short notice, and Dalton can read defenses better than Bryce Young can.

I trust Allen to maximize a new player much much more than I trust McDermott/Babich to maximize a new player. So that's an easy one for me.

Yeah I just don't know where the improvement is coming from short of a WR trade. Some fans have pointed out we had the same week 5 and 6 slump last year and then turned it around, but the trade for Amari Cooper was the catalyst for that turnaround. We scored 30+ in all but one of our remaining games after that. If we don't make some kind of comparable trade this year there's no reason to think the passing offense is suddenly going to take off. And then on defense Hoecht will help some but the DL really hasn't been the problem this year. With Hairston who knows when McDermott is comfortable enough with him to let him play. So the back 7 which has been the problem this year is stuck as is for the foreseeable future. I haven't felt this negative about the team since before the McBeane era. Really hard right now to find reasons to be optimistic. A trade for Olave or some other #1 WR is the only move that would give me real hope. Even with that I'm not sure it would be enough to overcome all of the roster and coaching staff deficiencies but it would at least give us a fighting chance.

Teams were previously 1062-0 when leading by 18 points with 6 minutes to go.

The over/under in that game was 40.5. There were 46 points scored in the 4th quarter.

Shocking that Denver is going to give this game away. A dumb RTP, two dropped interceptions, and finally a weak DPI. Dart will get credit for a game winning TD that he absolutely didn't deserve.

Man that's a weak DPI to throw at this point of the game...

That's 2 interceptions dropped by Denver because 2 DBs collided at the catch point

Jordan Love hasn't played as well as he needs to with that contract. Also I still contend that the Parsons trade was a mistake. I'm not sure any defensive player is worth two 1st rounders and over $40M AAV in the modern NFL. They still don't have a legit #1 WR so that combined with Love's middling play has capped their success.

No that's his 5th year option which the Saints already picked up. He is locked in at that cap number next year unless an extension lowers it.

Pats are here to stay, no denying the last few weeks as a flash in the pan. One positive of this development is that if the Pats relegate us to #2 in the division maybe that's enough for Pegula to make a change. It's easy to talk himself into staying the course when we coast to division wins every year, but if the floor goes lower maybe he finally loses his patience.

I hear you. I'd still rather see what it looks like though rather than throw away a full season of Allen's prime, which is what we're doing if we leave the offense as is. Even just having the threat of Olave on the field helps to open up the short field plays that Brady spams every week if nothing else. That's what Cooper did for us and he was past his prime last year. Also I saw an intent to get the ball downfield early against the Falcons but we had to abandon that plan once Palmer went out. Even against the Pats they were trying it. So I'd like to think they know there are a lot of 1v1 opportunities outside they're unable to take advantage of right now because of personnel.