HappyDays

Technically. But he was never going to see that $5.4M next year. We were almost certainly going to cut him and take $2.5M in dead cap, so I'm looking at it as we save $1.4M in 2024 and $2.5M in 2025 by trading him now.

Yeah it is certainly just about the pick. I would bet Ryan Poles has been chasing down this trade ever since he stupidly wrote Bates' contract for us in the 2022 offseason. Finally he just made an offer Beane couldn't turn down.

? Who is Bates supposed to be playing over? He's just a good backup. I would have liked him as a baseline replacement for Morse but you don't turn down a 5th round pick for that caliber of player.

Splitting hairs but actually $1.433M in space saved because we're doing it before March 15. Also we avoid having to take on a $2.567M dead cap hit in 2025 when we inevitably would have released him next offseason. Still I don't think this has anything to do with cap space. Ryan Poles just weirdly has a hard on for Ryan Bates so we are happily accepting his overpay.

From a pure value standpoint I like the trade. Bates is probably worth a 7th as a player, we got a 5th for him. Cool. Not sure what the Bears are doing but I'll take it. If this means we are keeping Morse though I don't much like the outcome. It's time to get younger and cheaper. I would rather have Bates at center and Morse cut. Maybe Beane will surprise me and still move on from Morse even after this trade. That will tell me he understands what kind of offseason this needs to be.

I heard his bone was "delayed" in healing but no further complications or damage. There was a divot in the bone where he got hit, which takes longer to heal.

My honest opinion? This is one of the weakest highlight videos I've ever seen for a supposedly 1st round talent. First of all nearly half the video is punt returns. Not a good sign when you have to fill time in a highlight video with plays that will be irrelevant when he hits the NFL (unless you are drafting a punt returner in the 1st round). More importantly every single pass catching highlight is the same. He catches the ball in open space and then zips by the defense at lightning speed. Where are the routes? Where is the shiftiness with the ball in his hands? Where are the catches outside of his frame? Can he find holes in zone? A couple times in these highlights he catches a vertical pass that is a tiny bit out in front of him and he falls to the ground while securing the catch, like a simple soft catch knocked him over. This looks like a mid-round pick to me. For him to be successful the play has to be set up specifically for him to receive the ball in space because he isn't going to set plays up on his own. The pass will have to be perfect and he'll have to hope the defense takes a bunch of bad angles. I don't see any shiftiness on his tape at all. He actually gets caught from behind more than a couple of times because he doesn't understand how to force bad angles. He's the definition of a straight line player. If any team takes Worthy in the 1st round it will end as badly as John Ross IMO.

My favorite memory of John Ross is that he would have won his own private island if he had run the 40 while wearing Adidas. Instead he wore Nikes.

The only thing I have disagreed with Gunner on is McDermott, but I'm not going to spend the whole offseason whining about him. In fact I would tell anyone to trust Gunner's scouting evaluations over mine, I am certain he has done much more work on these players than I have. This time of year what I am looking at is traits and how they won in college with just enough film watching to feel comfortable that I know the profile of the player. I'm no scout. Other people can highlight the technical details of these prospects much better than I can. I just know what wins in the NFL and more specifically what our offense is missing and what would mesh well with Josh Allen's skill set. To your question, Coleman for me. I like Legette's profile, I am just scared away by his age and being a one year wonder.

Yeah the unwritten playoff rules have affected Diggs in particular more than anyone. He has never been a physical WR so when CBs are allowed to grab him his skill set is nullified somewhat. But that's life in the playoffs. Every defense is allowed to get away with it just like every offensive line can get away with manslaughter. And this is why I like Coleman actually. Go ahead and put your hands on him. He'll bully his way right through you.

In fact we faced the most man coverage out of every team in the league. It has been a real problem in the playoffs in particular for several years now. Our WRs can't beat sticky man coverage when the CBs are allowed to be more physical. Getting a WR that can beat 1v1 coverage has to be our #1 priority in the draft.

If it helps, my guide for determining a WR's 1st round worthiness is answering these two questions: 1) What is his elite trait? AKA can he make a living in the NFL doing one thing better than almost all of his peers? 2) Does he do anything else at an above average level? My criteria is that a 1st round WR must have a clear answer to #1, and "yes" to #2. So for example players like Brian Thomas and Xavier Worthy I can clearly answer #1, but question #2 is a no for me. With Mitchell I can't find his elite trait, the one thing he is going to do better than anyone else on the field. He is a good all around WR IMO. So I would place him in round 2. To give a positive example, I would say Coleman's elite trait is his high pointing skills, but he also is above average with the ball in his hands and boxing out defenders. All of that being said I am not going to pretend my word is gospel. Even people that scout as a full time job have a less than 50% hit rate. I'm not going to throw a tantrum if we draft Adonai Mitchell in the 1st round, in fact I'll be happy that Beane took a shot at a WR and I will root for him. Just not my cup of tea personally.

He can't run a track and field drill as fast as others but he can run in a straight line while plucking footballs out of the air better than any of them. I know which of those drills I actually care about.

Yep.

Mitchell to me is an example of why the combine is dangerous for evaluation. Suddenly because of his 40 time he is a 1st round talent. But everything I've read and watched on him shows that he is an inconsistent route runner and struggles against press coverage and isn't a particularly high-effort player. Very impressive 40 time but it changes nothing. The tape doesn't lie.

You might be surprised to know that I almost always agree with this. The first time I saw Coleman's profile was "contested catch specialist" I was out on him. But the more I've seen the more I have liked him. He has more nuance to his route running than the moniker would have you believe. He also moves very well with the ball in his hands. Not going to speed by guys of course but he will bully through him and fight for tough extra yards. Mike Williams is a pure contested catch specialist with really nothing else to write home about. And even he has two 1000 yard seasons on his resume, he has just unfortunately dealt with a ton of injuries.

WRs are running their 40s now. Finally. We can now throw out all of the film evaluation and simply rank WRs by their 40 time.

I feel the exact opposite. Zone coverage is where I think he could struggle at first, but we have other zone beaters on the roster. I want a WR that can win in 1v1 coverage because as of right now we don't have that player on the roster (unless Diggs returns to form). Coleman is physically dominant at the catch point and wins on vertical routes. That is a great skill set against 1v1 coverage. He can also eat defenses alive on quick slants if they want to live in man. In the red zone he is an automatic mismatch in man. I still have Troy Franklin as my #1 realistic option for the Bills because I agree quick separation and speed at all levels of the field is the most valuable skill set a WR can have. If he's gone however I don't see another realistically available WR that has that skill set. So of the other available skill sets Coleman's intrigues me the most and I think it would be the best fit with Josh Allen. Also his ceiling is sky high, even higher than Franklin's IMO.

I've seen him listed as a 2nd round target for the Bills... I know instincts matter more for safeties but this is putrid. In the 5th round I'd be fine with the pick.

It can be hard to analyze a WR separately from his QB. I like Shakir but I think his stats are inflated because he plays with an elite QB. He is not the caliber of player where you start thinking "if we draft another WR, where will he get his snaps?" For example drafting a 3-tech high would be pointless because Oliver will get all the snaps. Or drafting a guard high. Shakir isn't so good that he is going to keep a good WR off the field or split time with him. I would compare the situation to Gabe Davis in 2020 and we all saw what happened when we tried to make him a higher volume target. Some players are much better off as low volume targets.

Shakir isn't nearly as snappy a route runner as Beasley was in his prime. Maybe he will develop into that caliber of safety net but right now he is more of a role player IMO. That being said the role he plays is extremely valuable. Strong hands and body control at the catch point, instinctive and deceptively fast with the ball in his hands. We haven't had a player like him in the Josh Allen era. If he is the 3rd or 4th pass catcher on the depth chart we are in excellent shape.

People are overthinking the 1st round. Defensive linemen like Chop Robinson, Darius Robinson, Sweat, etc. are available at the bottom of the 1st round every single year. WRs like Coleman, Franklin, Legette, etc. are not usually there. The top to bottom strength of the WR class is pushing good WR prospects further down the board than they would usually go. So this year's draft strategy is a no brainer. Take the best WR available in the 1st round because it will almost certainly be the best value pick. And then take another one by round 5.

I don't think Davis has an alpha bone in his body. He gave up on routes and catches here at an alarming rate. He got bullied at the catch point in contested situations. He almost never fought through contact with the ball in his hands. Davis has been a pure over the top WR and not a great one at that. I don't see the comparison personally. I'm sure his skills will mostly shine on vertical routes, but I could also see him getting fed a bunch of quick slants with his ability to box out defenders and fight through contact. He immediately profiles as a 3rd down and red zone weapon IMO, and still has plenty of room to develop. Wouldn't you say the same thing about Legette? More vertical explosiveness than down to down separation, right?

Coleman has really grown on me this offseason. Don't want to read too much into a short interview but it seems he has the alpha mentality that a WR with his skill set needs to be successful. Still very young too, turning 21 in May. I think the Bills could really like him. Physical traits, young, high football character, fills a need. He fits the 1st round profile.

Probably not. It sure would be fun though. We would have to pull every lever we had and probably include a couple void years at the end to minimize his cap hit in 2024. Cut Morse, cut White, cut Poyer, maybe even restructure Diggs as much as that seems like a bad idea. All of that plus the extra $12.9 million in cap space, I think it would be feasible and give the current regime one or two last all-in years before they either close the deal or we let another regime handle the rebuild.