HappyDays

I'd be much more interested in this. Yes Kupp is past his prime but that lowers his trade value and he's not quite the slot-only WR he's made out to be with a 56.5% slot percentage this year. Get a savvy veteran with separation ability in the room. Where's the downside?

I think you're way off if you don't think that overcoming maybe the greatest dynasty in the history of the league isn't going to come down to one clutch play. You win a championship in moments. The players and coaches around Allen have collectively failed in those moments. If it didn't come on that play, it was going to come later on the drive.

Yeah I saw Allen improvise with two free rushers in his face and make an incredible read and throw. Allen's legacy has been written by his coaches and his teammates.

Mahomes does it because his teammates make the play with him. Allen's teammates run the wrong route or drop the ball or give up instant pressure. That's what separates their careers since 2021.

Apparently you still don't get it because the play was designed to go to Coleman off of the fake screen, not Shakir. Shakir I would think was running an option route as the 2nd progression in case the defense didn't bite. It wasn't a low percentage completion. The seam hole is open if Shakir runs there. Like I said I don't know why he stopped and basically took himself out of the play. You're stretching to find reasons to blame Allen for the final drive. The guy has shown up in these moments again and again throughout his career. But since his teammates don't show up in those moments, he bears all the blame. I expect takes like that from random ESPN analysts. I don't expect it from Bills fans that are paying attention to every play.

Okay do you understand how QB progressions work? This isn't Madden where he's scanning the entire field at once finding the "most open" receiver. His eyes are never coming back to Kincaid, that's patently ridiculous. Allen sees the fake screen didn't work so he moves onto Shakir who should be running a seam against the 2 high coverage. That's the correct read. It's the same route we hit against Baltimore on our first drive for a big gain. Allen even looks off the safety to make him commit to Coleman so the seam hole is wide open. Why Shakir stops running, I have no idea. It's just a bad play call. The idea is to make the defense bite so hard on the fake screen that Coleman breaks wide open. But there's a deep safety on that side of the field so the play call basically relies on that safety biting absurdly hard. Use that play against like the Raiders in week 3. Against Spags in the AFCCG it's laughably bad. On 2nd down pressure gets to Allen almost immediately so he has to throw to Samuel early and the LB tips the pass. Too bad because Samuel's whip route was going to be open. On 3rd down Karlaftis makes a shoestring tackle on Cooper because KC players always make clutch plays in critical moments. On 4th down we know what happened. A Bills player not named Allen didn't make a clutch play in a critical moment. Shocker. It's really weird to look at this sequence and say Allen was "overthinking" because the pressure got to him. I mean what are we doing here?

Uh, no. Kincaid was never an option. He was meant to pretend he was catching a screen pass. And Allen didn't airmail the pass, he thought Shakir was going to keep running to open space instead of stopping so he threw to that spot. But I don't blame Shakir either. It was a bad amateur play call and it was DOA when KC didn't bite on the fake.

What I like about Higgins is he makes big plays in big moments. And that's where we've faltered in recent years. We can keep up with any team over the course of a whole game, but when we need one player to step up at the end it is Allen and no one else. I'm not as gung-ho on separation as most other fans. I'm a proponent of pairing an above the rim contested catch WR with Allen's big arm. It's one of the reasons I wanted Coleman although obviously he needs to develop quite a bit to become the player I envisioned. By signing Higgins we can sidestep the entire evaluation process and just fill the hole with a known player who I believe would thrive in this offense. They can draft a WR with a separation skill set. And in general I almost don't even care about the skill set. Give me the very best outside WR available no matter his skill set and we can figure out the rest. In this case that player is obviously Higgins. If that means Rousseau walks for example, I really can't bring myself to mourn the loss.

I just don't think you can afford to pay two outside CBs, not with an elite QB under contract. Benford is getting an extension for sure. For his running mate I think they will sign a replacement level starter, something like Jonathan Jones from New England, and then draft one to compete with the free agent signing. I wouldn't even mind if they bring Douglas back for a low deal but they would need some competition there for sure. One draft scenario I've warmed up to is Shavon Revel with our 1st pick. Normally the idea of drafting a CB with our 1st pick would appall me, but we have a chance of getting real value there because of his ACL tear. For a team that always drafts at the bottom of the round, one way to cheat the system a bit and still find elite talent is by picking players that drop for non-football reasons. Jeffery Simmons, DK Metcalf, and Jalen Carter are recent players that fit that profile. In Revel you'd get a big athletic CB who normally would be flirting with the top 12. Put him across from Benford and then when we want to play more man we have the players to do it without fear.

I don't think we can afford to do both. The team has not made a splash move at WR since 2020. It's time. In three great WR drafts - 2019, 2020, 2024 - we drafted a total of 1 WR before day three. As a result we continue to chase the position. They need to just get it solved. Right now we have zero WRs on the roster that are definite starters outside. It's the worst the room has looked since, well, 9 months ago when we were having these same conversations almost verbatim. Higgins is the move. You live with the injury concerns because beggers can't be choosers. It's nothing like when we handed Von a franchise altering contract. Higgins just turned 26 and has proven #1 ability. Add him and some other WR with our first 3 picks, then you hope Coleman develops. Either way that strategy gives the room a very solid floor. I would make a splash trade for Metcalf if available but I agree I don't think he will be. There's been no buzz around it at all and this isn't a draft where Seattle is going to want to sell out for a QB trade up.

Then perhaps we should do the opposite of what we did in 2020. Everyone wants us to trade for Maxx Crosby. Wouldn't the wiser move be to stay put and draft from the strength of the class? Maybe if we had done that in 2020 we'd have Justin Jefferson right now. If WR is the weakness of this draft then that's where we should make our splash FA or trade move.

Ok I watched this video and immediately changed my mind. Trade for him.

My belief is that if the rosters were flipped we'd be angry at Beane for completely screwing up the OT position, for signing an injury prone WR, for failing to add a difference making edge rusher and blowing a 1st round pick there on a player that doesn't see the field. I'm not happy with Beane lately because whether influenced by McDermott or not he hasn't followed the necessary strategy to take this team to its ultimate goal, but I don't look at the two rosters and see some massive gap. There's a reason KC is favored in the Super Bowl and it's not because a single person out there thinks they have the better roster.

What do you think McDermott's record would be with Alex Smith as his QB over the last 5 years? Reid was 50-26 with Alex Smith so a 65.8% win percentage. McDermott with Allen over the last 5 years (since he became elite) is 61-22 so a 73.5% win percentage. Is it fair to say we lose an average of 3 more games per season with Alex Smith instead of Allen? If anything that feels generous. But running with that that would put our record at 46-37 over the past 5 years which is a 55.4% win percentage. That's our ceiling with a QB that Andy Reid was taking to the playoffs every year. An all time great QB absolutely makes Reid a better coach. The weird thing is that an all time great QB hasn't led to the same outcome for McDermott.

Mostly yes. Defenders are always going to punch at the ball. He made a big mistake trying to run horizontally instead of running vertically away from the defenders or just going down, and then he just got careless with the ball. Either way it's undebateable that our defensive scheme and play calling and overall play was not remotely good enough in either game. We forced two punts over two games. The Chiefs once again had historically elite efficiency against us. It's the same story we see in every single playoff run. I'm honestly at a loss that anybody could think it is going to change at this point. I know we can get past KC but it's not going to happen through the defense. 40 points per game. That should be the goal.

Hot take - they were very bad against Baltimore too but Lamar and Andrews made crushing unforced errors. And we probably would have given up 4 straight TDs to start the Chiefs game if Mahomes didn't randomly drop the ball. Let's stop with this fantasy that the defense is ever going to perform at a championship level. We're either going to run up the score or it's never going to happen for us.

Why not? We basically scored 30 points against them with Mack Hollins as our best WR. Why can't we get closer to 40 with a big infusion of pass catching talent?

I don't dispute that coaching was a problem on our final drive, but talent is the great equalizer. That quick TD drive at the end of the 1st half was capped by a 34 yard downfield completion. The end of half drive against Baltimore featured an 18 yard DPI on 3rd down. The problem is the respective targets on those plays were Hollins and Coleman and neither of them have proven to be consistently reliable downfield targets, so we need more there. A lot more. Because on the drives when we didn't have those downfield completions it was really really tough sledding. It took multiple 4th down conversions, multiple fumble recoveries, a ridiculous individual effort from James Cook at the goalline, etc. to sustain those other drives. And when you live in that low margin for error world, you leave yourself at the mercy of the officials and of an inexperienced pass catcher having to make the critical play of the game. If you want to remove the random luck factors you have to impose your will with consistent explosive offense.

Yeah and it's worth noting that in our regular season matchup we defeated two of his blitzes by throwing downfield to Cooper 1v1. Both of those completions turned into TD drives. But by the time we got to the playoffs Cooper had inexplicably become a non-factor. We need that 1v1 boundary mismatch to have a chance. Ideally two of them. That has to be the focus of the offseason IMO. I know everyone else is hoping we trade for Maxx Crosby. Not me. I'm hoping we trade for DK Metcalf or some similar move. We can't get past KC with ball control. We need to completely overwhelm them and run up the score.

I was talking about Kincaid. Beane said he needs to get stronger this offseason to have a bigger impact. And yeah that's fine, it's a physical position, I just think his mental game is where he's really lacking.

I found it interesting they called out his physicality. To my eyes that wasn't the problem this year. Maybe as a blocker but not as a pass catcher. The problem was mostly mental and technical IMO. He doesn't do a good job of finding windows in zone or detailed route running to separate in man. He doesn't read leverage well with the ball in his hands. So sure go pump some iron this offseason but mostly I think he needs to watch some Travis Kelce film, compare it with his own, and learn how to make himself available to his QB. Make sight adjustments, subtly move to match Allen's movements and eyes, etc. The game needs to slow down for him.

I'm somewhere between minor disappointment and nonchalance about it. The whole operation in all three phases was not good enough when it mattered. Fire Smiley or don't. Whatever. I have basically no thoughts positive or negative about anything that was said today. Either these guys are going to make the necessary changes to get us over the hump, or they will continue to waste Allen's career. I don't expect them to prostrate themselves in front of the media or explain their entire offseason plan. Just get it done.

Good news is there are zero excuses next year. A lot of bad cap space is coming off the books, Allen will likely be extended to lower his cap hit, all the coaches are back, the core of the roster will all be back, and we have a lot of draft picks. This was a rebuild/reload year. Okay, fine. Next year has to be the one then.

Hmm that's disappointing. Oh well.

Yeah I am extremely disappointed with how he ended the season. After the stretch of Tennessee and Seattle I was ready to take a victory lap over my support of him because it looked like he had really started to figure things out. But he ended the season playing worse than he did in game one. Hopefully we can chalk it up to the injury but it's concerning to see a player regress that much and never turn their trend line back around.