HappyDays

A safety with entirely linear movement skills isn't a 1st round prospect. Some other team can make that mistake.

Can't make it too obvious we're WR or bust in the 1st round.

I've been leading the train in advocating for a WR trade in recent years, but this offseason I am focused on the rebuild. No more old vets. Just draft two young WRs with physical traits and start fresh with the second chapter of Allen's career.

He threw a duck that bounced off a DB's facemask and miraculously bounced into Aiyuk's hands for a 50 yard completion. If that play gets intercepted as it should have been, the game would have been over right there. Purdy's biggest strength is that he seemingly shares one brain with Kyle Shanahan. It's why a QB with his limitations can be as successful as he has been in that situation. But the physical limitations are just too much to overcome IMO. Constantly in the Super Bowl I saw a QB that was always off the mark whenever he had to deal with a bit of pressure. Guys were wide open all over the place and he just couldn't drive the ball to them. It's just too difficult to win a Super Bowl with that kind of fatal flaw. Eventually you're going to have to deal with a pass rush and win from a messy pocket. There's two questions here - Can he win a Super Bowl? Sure, under perfect circumstances it's possible as he proved last year. Can he win a Super Bowl while taking up a sizeable percentage of the salary cap? To that I say no.

I don't know how the Bills see him, I'm just saying what my strategy would be. I see a lot of Bills fans and content creators saying we have to come away with an edge rusher by the end of the 2nd round because it's a clear weakness on the team. But the draft class is what it is. People talk themselves into a Marshawn Kneeland because there just aren't many options. I think a lot of people have the concept of a deep or not deep class backwards. People say WRs are deep, edge rushers aren't, therefore we should take an edge rusher early and wait on WR. That's the wrong mindset. A deep WR class means that at any one of our picks there is likely to be a WR who matches the value of the pick, and the exact inverse for edge rushers. Choosing to take an edge rusher early in this draft means you're probably passing on a better talent just to fill a perceived need. I would rather skip the position entirely than make that mistake and regret it later, like when we stupidly traded up for Cody Ford instead of DK Metcalf.

That isn't the question. The question is, has San Fran hit their ceiling with Purdy? Given how ridiculously talented that supporting cast was they should have had an all time dominant playoff offense. Instead they fell short in critical moments and probably shouldn't have even made it past Detroit to be honest. So now you're going to give Purdy all of his supporting cast's money and hope you somehow exceed last year's performance? I don't know what the answer is but he definitely isn't it IMO.

The way I see it is everyone knows it's a weak EDGE class. So I'm just accepting this year our EDGE group will not be a strength of the team. And that's fine. The way to solve that problem isn't by reaching for mediocre talents in the top 75 out of desperation. We solve that problem by trying to build an offense that can simply outpace everybody. We hope that Rousseau takes a big step and Von Miller looks even 50% of what he did in 2022. I would rather bet on that and invest in the offensive weapons than reach for say Marshawn Kneeland at #60 because of a perceived drop off after him. Go all in on the positions that are strong in the draft (namely WR and OL) and accept that we won't be dominant at every single position group this season.

Man I'm shocked by how many people see the 49ers extending Purdy as a foregone conclusion. I thought he was by far their biggest weakness in the Super Bowl. He couldn't win one with an elite LT and like 4 elite weapons. What else can they possibly give him to get them over the hump? It would be a monumental mistake to give him a big extension IMO.

I would be more than satisfied with this trade back scenario. Getting Franklin and then having the ability to trade up for Coleman or Wilson (or any two WRs in that tier depending on how the real draft goes), and coming away with our 3rd rounder back, is the ideal scenario IMO. Of course one's appetite for this result will depend on their own WR preferences. Personally I want to come away with any two out of that 2nd/3rd tier of WRs and recoup our 3rd round pick in the process.

I actually was just told the Bills have had MULTIPLE Zoom meetings with Roman Wilson, so he is one to keep an eye on. He could potentially be a 2nd round target with a small trade up.

With the 64th pick, the Kansas City Chiefs select Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, Washington. This one is kind of a no brainer for us. With MVS getting cut and Rashee Rice's legal troubles our WR corps is possibly the worst in the league. Polk slots in as a true outside WR that can win vertically and make contested catches. He also projects as an excellent run blocker which is something we value. Polk might not have the suddenness to consistently beat man coverage early in his career but we are seeing mostly zone looks anyways. @Virgil

Any WR we're talking about at #28 I would feel better taking after a trade down (I know you like Legette enough to just take him at #28). But at the same time I think we just have to be willing to accept maybe not getting a 100% perfect value at #28. Let's say no teams wants to trade up with us. If it comes down to slightly reaching for a WR or taking another position entirely I will still take the WR and in my mind it's not even a contest.

I like his route running. It's not elite but good enough for someone with his speed. The concern on him is hands and frame.

Hall is a reasonable pick on talent alone. I've heard he has character concerns so I'm not sure the Bills would consider him.

I suspect he'll win the poll because everyone knows safety is a need. I just personally have no interest in drafting a safety anywhere in the top 75 picks. It's too easy to find good players at that position later in the draft. Especially in McDermott's defense we don't need studs at the position, just smart players that can learn the defense and stick to their zones.

Out of this list I'm taking Kingsley Suamataia. This draft is strong at OT so we should try to spend a top 100 pick on one if possible. He also jumps out as someone that probably could have gone 20 picks higher and no one would have batted an eye. He is raw but has great physical traits (9.35 RAS score) and doesn't have to be rushed into a starting role. Ideally he would take over for Spencer Brown in 2025, meaning we would get a comp pick back for Brown and spend his cap space on more meaningful positions. Theoretically it's a good pick for value and long term team building.

The idea I considered is using Brown to trade up with Pittsburgh at #20, also swapping their #98 for our #128 as part of the deal. This would put Brown's value equal to pick #65 which sounds pretty fair to me. Maybe we throw in one of our 5ths to sweeten the deal. Pittsburgh would have both of their tackle positions figured out and they'd still have the same number of picks so it would make sense for both sides I think. From #20 getting to #6 wouldn't be as costly. Our 1st next year plus #98 this year might get it done (this is basically what the Chiefs gave us to move up for Mahomes). Ultimately we would basically give up Brown plus two 1sts to end up with an elite WR prospect. I would take that deal now if I could. I like Brown but RT is a much easier hole to fill than WR1.

I'll start off by pointing out every WR we're talking about as a possibility at #28 has a red flag or two in their game. That's inescapable at the bottom of the 1st round. That's why I'm banging the drum for a trade down and then double dipping at WR with our first two picks. Maximize the chance that we get a stud at the position while also picking up a 3rd rounder this year. I worry that I've been overselling my affinity for Keon Coleman. I don't think he's a true 1st round grade WR - in my eyes only three of those exist in this class. I just think his traits are winning traits in the NFL and that he would mesh well with Josh Allen. The upside pro comparison I would point to is Nico Collins. He also had questions on if he could separate coming out of Michigan, but his size and strength have turned him into a true #1 WR. I'm not saying anything groundbreaking here - size and strength are winning traits in the NFL. Those traits will allow Coleman to power through press coverage, box out defenders at his route break to create leverage, win the ball in the air, and bully defenders with the ball in his hands. The reason I am especially valuing those traits for the Bills is that I have seen our smaller WRs get pushed around in the playoffs for several years in a row now. I've seen Allen give his WR a chance to win the ball against 1v1 coverage only for the WR to lose the contest. Of course it's possible he will fail. He isn't going to win with speed or twitchiness. Perhaps he will struggle more than anticipated against physical coverage and he'll be relegated to the slot as some have predicted. I just see a lot people overemphasizing his red flags and underemphasizing his strengths, while doing the opposite with their own favored prospect. Personally I think the talk of separation metrics and contested catch percentage is a lot of bunk. WRs aren't usually creating yards of separation in the NFL. Their job is to create leverage to open up a throwing window. Coleman does plenty of that on film. As far as contested catches, Jordan Travis is a pure college QB that only throws into windows he can clearly see. Zero anticipation and modest arm strength meant that contested catches ended up being more contested than they should have been. There are times on film where Coleman is breaking wide open but by the time the ball gets to him the DB has caught up and made it into the window and is able to easily punch the ball away. With a QB like Allen, the ball will be on him immediately before the CB has a chance to do anything about it. I come away impressed by Coleman's college production because his skill set doesn't mesh well with a pure college QB. I don't know why Coleman would have issues beating press at the next level. He's already big and strong, and not even 21 yet so he probably has more room to grow into his already NFL caliber frame. He's reportedly very competitive and motivated to cash out in the NFL (some may scoff at this, but money is by far the greatest motivator) so I am confident he'll work hard on his release package. He has the frame of a true X.

It's just a 1-tech with effort concerns on tape. Like I said I would take a chance on the player on day three despite the character concerns.

Yeah the ones that involve an arrest, which is public record, usually make headlines.

I don't think Beane floated out an official police affidavit. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the fine people of TSW know better than to trade up for a 1-tech in any circumstance, let alone a player who just committed an all-time stupid mistake which justified preexisting character concerns.

Sweat is almost certainly going to be off our draft board. He has a reputation for partying and was driving way above the legal limit two weeks before the draft. No way we take a chance on a 1-tech with that kind of character concern in the 2nd round, and certainly not with a trade up. It's arguable if any 1-tech is worth a 2nd round pick. Now if he drops to us in say the 5th I would want the Bills to take a chance there because what do we have to lose?

Brady actually proves the point you're making. He undoubtedly had an elite set of weapons for most of his career. He had the best all around TE to ever play the game to go along with his solid (at least) WRs. His final year in New England they had a below average group of weapons and people declared his career over. Instead he joined a different team that had an elite set of weapons and immediately won another Super Bowl. It blows my mind that people still want to argue we don't need elite weapons when even the GOAT himself needed it. Also let's not generalize the conversation. Mahomes and Brady at different points had the benefit of elite playoff defenses that could carry the team when the offense faltered. Let's be honest, Allen isn't going to suddenly have an elite playoff defense unless another change is made. So we have to account for that in our team building strategy. The 2023 Chiefs are not a good model for us to follow.