HappyDays

Yeah the degree of difficulty is supposed to go up for QBs in the playoffs. The Chiefs dominated the Ravens defense in the 1st half of the AFCCG, but the Ravens came out of halftime and completely shut them down. Against us we came out of halftime desperately needing just one stop and instead the Chiefs casually strolled down the field and into the endzone. It was a backbreaking drive that I thought took the wind out of our sails. We traded TDs one more time but at that point threading the needle perfectly seemed almost impossible, and only a stupid play from a stupid player in Mecole Hardman kept us in it. So no @NewEra I don't buy this idea that the Bills defense has been hopelessly derailed by injuries over five years of playoffs in the Allen/McDermott era. That kind of streak is a trend, not an unlucky fluke. I'm not going to re-litigate the entire divisional round but suffice it to say I did not agree with several personnel decisions McDermott made in that game. In fact our defense made a couple stops AFTER he changed personnel to what it should have been from the start. Oh well. I wish I had faith that McDermott would turn it around but it's hard to bet against five years of data. I have faith Josh Allen can overcome that handicap but he needs an elite set of weapons to bridge the gap IMO. So that colors my perspective in this discussion. I'd be fine with this group of skill players if McDermott had proven to be a defensive mastermind in the playoffs, truly I mean that.

Sure but that's obviously not going to happen. This is where people lose me with the comparison to the Chiefs last year. Our defense is not going to hold down the Ravens and then the 49ers in the playoffs while our offense sputters. The history under this staff is what it is. Our defense underperforms every single year in the playoffs. I'm betting on that trend continuing. With that in mind, the only way we are going to win a championship is to go all out creating an offensive juggernaut capable of steamrolling teams. As I've been saying we need a lot of best case scenarios to come to fruition for that caliber of offensive output. Maybe we're not as far apart in this conversation as you think. I don't expect our offense to suck. I know it will automatically be in the top 5 to top 10 range because of our QB. I just don't think that's good enough under current management.

I know it will be a successful offense just because we have Allen. Extremely likely to be top 10, likely top 5ish even no matter what. But I want top 2. That's what this team needs to win a championship. I'm not convinced we have added enough talent to have a top 2 offense. If you disagree that's fine. Everybody seems to agree we need several players to step up big time for us to hit that standard.

Gonna go out on a limb and say adding a RB2 isn't going to fix all of the problems our offense had in that game.

I think he called the only gameplan he could with our undermanned offensive roster. A ball control offense that had to thread the needle repeatedly and force Allen to use his legs more than is sustainable over a 17+ game season, just to sort of keep us in the game. That isn't an offense to strive for, it's an offense that can get you out of a game.

For that exercise I just went with targets, but I am sure if you changed it to catches or yards the result would be the same.

Samuel isn't going to break out in his 8th season. I do expect him to be a great addition to the team though as an explosive complementary piece. Shakir is a slot, I'm still firm in that opinion until proven otherwise. Maybe he develops into Cooper Kupp but I don't see it. Kincaid I agree has a decent chance of really breaking out this year. But that's my point. We have to hope for a breakout. All of the players I listed were already known to be top tier pass catching talents entering those Super Bowl seasons. Maybe Aiyuk wasn't quite at that proven level yet, but he was in a mix with Samuel, Kittle, and McCaffrey so offensive weapons were not remotely a concern for the 49ers. My whole thing this offseason was I wanted two young WRs with physical traits added in the draft. Double the chance that you hit the jackpot, and then even if there's no breakout this year at least we enter 2025 with a lot of young talent that's developed chemistry with Allen and the probability of a breakout in 2025 goes way up. That would have made 2024 a fun transition year even if the team as a whole took a step back. Instead we're kind of just treading water, at best.

It's even worse because last year we had this identical discussion about the #2 pass catcher. This year we're talking about the #1 pass catcher. Yet it is the same exact arguments going back and forth even though the debate was already decided last season. It's pretty wild.

#1 target of the last 10 Super Bowl participants: Travis Kelce Brandon Aiyuk Travis Kelce AJ Brown Cooper Kupp Ja'Marr Chase Mike Evans Travis Kelce Travis Kelce George Kittle By the way those teams also all had a #2 passing target that was better than anyone on the Bills roster right now. Several of them had a better #3 passing target. That's the caliber of talent we're talking about. Meanwhile on this board we're wondering if Khalil Shakir can be the #1. It's honestly a complete joke. I never expected us to find a #1 caliber pass target right away after trading Diggs. I expected a step back. It is just frustrating that Beane didn't even really try. We added one WR in the draft and then signed a couple low-probability scratch offs in Claypool and Hamler, and the rest has been complementary or depth additions. We have to hope Kincaid is ready to be a #1 pass target. That's probably our best hope. The next best hope is maybe... Claypool? I don't know. It's just not a good situation and we're likely to enter next offseason with the same questions that we entered this offseason with.

The problem is that WR5 is a more important role when you don't have a WR1. Hollins as a depth WR on the Dolphins would be fine. Just like Sherfield on the Dolphins was able to produce some. But you put them on a team without that elite WR1 and their deficiencies become legit problems on the roster, as we saw last year.

The MVS signing makes me think a trade before the season is not in the cards, unfortunately. At the trade deadline I think is a real possibility though, when we would only take on approximately half of the player's cap hit this year. If Beane saves all of Tre's $10.2M that will be a sign that he is keeping in-season trade options open. This is our locked in WR room: Coleman - X MVS - Field stretcher Shakir - Slot Samuel - Gadget/weapon/Z Hollins - Depth/special teams The 6th spot will be one of the rejects we've added or one of our late round/UDFA rookies from last year. We need several best case scenarios to come to fruition for this to work. Coleman has to be ready to hit the ground running and be our primary outside WR. Shakir needs to prove he can take on a much larger target share. Samuel needs to stay healthy. The 6th WR needs to be better than Trent Sherfield. If all of that happens plus Kincaid takes a step plus Brady proves he is a top 10 OC, we have the capability of being a top 3 offense again. Assuming at least one of those outcomes fails, maybe we get Hopkins at the trade deadline.

Here's the thing - If the Bills offense got shut out in the 1st half against the 49ers, and then Allen started the 2nd half by throwing a terrible interception that gave the 49ers the ball at the 50, the game is over by the end of the 3rd quarter. We can't try to copy the Chiefs. We have to build the best possible team that this coaching staff and defensive roster can win with. That team needs to have a better WR corps than what the Chiefs had last year.

Hopefully Joe Brady is as good as the team thinks. The OC hiring process was a sham. I don't necessarily mean that critically, it just was. They are putting a lot of faith in Brady being somewhat of an offensive genius and getting the most out of a group of complementary players that's missing a true difference maker. Or maybe they're placing their faith in Kincaid to take a big step and become capable of a #1 target share. That's not a completely unlikely scenario. One way or another someone on offense, coach or player, will have to be magnitudes better than they were last year for this offense to be championship caliber.

OBJ is worried about sitting behind established WR starters so he chose the Dolphins?

? MVS is getting a $1.125M signing bonus (guaranteed). We don't know the actual contract details yet. His base salary might push it to $2M, that's what I would guess actually. OBJ is getting $3M. The "max value" doesn't really matter at all. Those are just fun numbers for agents to flex their muscles. So we're talking about maybe a $1M-$1.5M difference between the two players. Yeah I would classify that as "almost the same."

Come on man. I'm not rehashing an entire offseason of discussion. If you're just catching up to the draft now that's fine. The rest of us have been talking about the players we didn't take for weeks now. He would step in and immediately be the best WR on the Bills today IMO. Top 2 at worst. If you watch that video I don't think you can reasonably disagree.

Double dip at WR in the draft was the obvious move. Signing the more talented OBJ for almost the same money we are getting MVS for. Don't act like there weren't other options.

Well, he can play the Gabe Davis role. Stretch the field vertically and draw coverage downfield. We needed this role in our offense. Unfortunately this probably means no bigger moves are coming. Coleman, MVS, Samuel, Hollins, Shakir is our top 5. Claypool, Hamler, Shavers, etc. are fighting for the 6th spot.

"Up to." I guess we'll see the real numbers at a later time.

He has YAC speed, not vertical speed. And yes that's a meaningful difference on an NFL field. MVS can get vertical because of his combined size and speed. That is a skill set that as of right now we don't have on the roster unless you count Claypool. By the way I'm not happy that in May I'm somewhat celebrating the potential signing of MVS. Really that's insane to say out loud. But at this point we just need that skill set on the roster. Can't have defenses completely ignoring deep zones and never make them pay for it.

If you get over a 9.0 RAS score while actually running all of the drills, you're an elite athlete IMO.

He is an elite athlete. But he looks clumsy on the field because he isn't a natural football player. Never quite figured out NFL caliber leverage or spacing, etc. I would bet a lot of those focus drops come down to him thinking too much on the field. The NFL is littered with elite athletes that are reduced to being just role players because they lack the intangibles, nothing unusual about that archetype. Over the last year or two of his time with the Bills I'd like to keep his role simple. Basic blocking assignments, quick designed throws in the red zone, check down routes, that sort of thing. Let him use his natural athleticism without thinking too much and you have yourself a nice, albeit overpaid, complementary player.

Did I? There was a thread last week with a poll about which available vet WR would be the best signing and MVS was my choice in that poll. Then again I'm sure two months ago I felt very different. When you've struck out at the bar for four hours everybody sudddenly looks hotter.

What sucks if that unless Beane makes another move, "eventually" isn't soon enough. The way we've built this roster, Coleman and Hollins are the only two guys you look at as true outside WRs (and not everybody agrees that Coleman is one). So he's going to be forced into a big role before he has a chance to refine his skillset. As someone that loved the prospect before the Bills took him and had him as my #1 Bills target after the top three, even I know he needs time to refine his skillset. I love who he has the potential to become, not who he is on day one. The expectations are going to be too high because the fanbase is looking at him as Diggs' replacement and that's really just not fair to him.

Alright man. I think you lost the plot of what "field stretching WR" means. I'm aware that literally any WR can run vertical routes. That doesn't mean that say Cole Beasley is a field stretcher. Anyways... Hopefully MVS if nothing else can take on the Gabe Davis decoy "draw coverage downfield" role and still come away with like 400-500 yards. For close to the vet minimum (presumably) this would be a good signing.