HappyDays

I'm curious about your thoughts on the Michigan State tape. His contested catch percentage was much better there than it was at FSU. I don't think Coleman regressed so that leads me to believe it was a difference in QB that caused the substantial dip in contested catch percentage. I thought Jordan Travis had very poor ball placement and timing on a lot of those opportunities. In any case I don't like Coleman because of what he's done. I like him because of what I think he will be after NFL coaching and seasoning. All the tools are there, he just needs to learn how to use that size and body control to dominate CBs at the next level.

He can play outside some, just not full time. He is a better outside WR than Shakir for example. But anyways Samuel isn't going to be a traditional WR in our offense, those are the exact words Beane used to decribe him. He's the plus plus version of McKenzie/Harty. And I really liked that signing, I think he gives us a reliable X-factor that we've never had in the Josh Allen era. I'm just not looking at him as more than what he is.

He was a healthy scratch for like five consecutive games last year. I'm struggling to think of a single WR that went from that kind of resume in their 3rd season to finding success elsewhere. I would put him in the same caliber as Justin Shorter. Sure bring him to training camp for a swap of 7th rounders but there would be zero expectation of him giving meaningful contributions to the team. I don't worry about any WR "taking snaps" from someone else on the roster. I just want a good depth chart with a solid floor heading into the season. The snaps and targets will figure themselves out.

Coleman is the one WR I was referring to. He's the only one on the roster that I believe you can plant outside full time and make it work, and depending on who you ask a lot of people don't even think that's true. Samuel is not a full time outside WR. That's what I'm talking about. You need a minimum of two WRs on the roster that can be planted outside full time if for no other reason than to protect against injury if the #1 outside WR gets injured. So right now our only possible starting caliber full time outside WR is a raw rookie, and that's assuming he's immediately good enough to start and not better in the slot like some analysts believe. It's a terrible situation to enter the season with. It's in fact so terrible that I'm going to assume there is a post-6/1 plan in place. There's just no way Mack Hollins is the plan. I won't believe that.

I see this idea a lot but honestly I don't want low probability upside, I want a known floor. Chark or OBJ would suit our needs better IMO. Marshall is someone that a non-contending team should take a shot on.

I hope so. I don't want to believe Mack Hollins/Justin Shorter is the plan. We literally don't have two starting caliber outside WRs on the roster. It feels like DJ Chark or OBJ have to be a post-6/1 signing just so we have a capable starting roster heading into training camp.

Last year it was "we'll have a #2 by committee!" Now it's "we'll have a #1 by committee!" We've gone backwards from an already less than ideal position. So yeah the passing offense is pretty clearly going to take a step back this year. Are we going to produce an elite run game to make up even part of that step back? Is our less experienced defense going to carry the offense the way the Chiefs defense did last season? I just don't see it happening this year. Not unless several best case scenarios regarding player development come to fruition and/or the coaching staff performs a lot better than they have.

Not only that but Diggs was basically the automatic read in obvious man coverage looks.

No more confident than I felt about Gabe Davis last year after Beane elected not to sign Hopkins. Well that's not entirely true, I am more confident in Shakir than I was in Davis. But just because Beane chooses to elevate a player's role on the depth chart doesn't mean I inherently trust that he's correct.

I'm leaning towards neither unless Rousseau finally hits his ceiling this year. We can't afford a mid-tier EDGE rusher who will probably get paid $10M+ and I don't think RT is important enough to give out a massive contract extension. I would let both walk and use the resulting savings to pay for a true difference making EDGE, and hopefully it will go better than the last time we tried that.

I'm in a weird position where on one hand I'm expecting a down season, but on the other my standards for this regime haven't changed. Find a way to make it work or face consequences.

Coaching on both sides of the ball will have to be much better to get past our usual divisional round loss. The high end talent just isn't there. I'm not even sure if Milano will be 100% this year. He suffered a pretty nasty complicated injury and he'll be 30 when the season starts. On offense we lost one elite talent in Diggs (halfway through the season last year) so we need someone on offense to step up and become that elite talent. Kincaid has the best shot, followed by Cook, followed by Shakir, followed by Coleman. On defense Oliver has fallen short of reaching elite status. At this point in his career I think we just have to accept he'll always be a 2nd tier 3T. Rousseau maybe can reach elite status. I hoped year three would be his breakout but it didn't happen so the chances are diminished each year. If he's not a double digit sack guy this year, no one on the team will be. So basically we need at least two long shots to reach elite status and also the coaching to be better on both sides of the ball to seriously compete for a championship this year. It's a tall order.

Just finished listening and all I can say is wow. This young man has elite personality and determination. What I like is that he backs up his talk on the field.

I'll go big and vote Coleman. I think he's going to be our starting X, which in this offense with this QB means a lot of targets and a lot of yards.

https://www.si.com/nfl/chiefs/draft/connection-with-patrick-mahomes-sparked-kc-chiefs-rashee-rice-pick Good enough for you?

Currently we have one full time outside WR on the roster. They have to add somebody IMO. A post-6/1 signing is the only thing that makes sense.

After June 1 I think we can.

We need someone that can play outside and get vertical in a hurry. Of the remaining FA options DJ Chark intrigues me the most, followed closely by OBJ. Nobody else has a skill set worth adding IMO.

His skill set isn't what we need to complete the WR room.

I'm not sure about. The restructure was more complicated than what we're used to: https://overthecap.com/inside-josh-allens-restructured-contract-with-the-bills I don't quite understand all the particulars, but we didn't just reduce his cap hit this year while increasing cap hits in each successive year of his contract like most restructures. We instead did it in a way that lowered his cap hit both this year and in 2025, and OTC thinks it sets the stage for an extension in 2027.

Mike Evans ran a 4.53 and got drafted 7th overall. Supposedly that's exactly what Coleman ran at his pro day. Drake London ran a 4.58 and went 8th overall. So it's definitely possible Coleman would have been a top 10 pick if he had gone back and really dominated on the field in his 3rd year.

Why would they let their OC have major influence? He's their 3rd in 4 years. Under McDermott it's written in stone that we'll have to hire a new OC every 2-3 years because the current one will always eventually be fired or hired away as a head coach. And it's not like McDermott is dictating the long-term offensive philosophy beyond a vague oversight. So any time we add players to the offense it won't be with any particular system in mind. They're going to throw a bunch of low investment guys at the coach and tell him and Allen to figure it out. A lot of fans have seemingly convinced themselves that small ball, ball control offense has been the plan all along. I don't think that's true at all. I think the personnel investments have forced that to be the only valid offensive philosophy we can use this year. Is it what Brady wants? The guy that coached an LSU offense featuring Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson? Color me skeptical. But it's the offense he'll get and he'll like it, or else we'll cycle on through to the next offensive coach getting their feet wet.

I agree but our first OL pick this year was in the 5th round despite it being a very deep OL class. With all the talk of WRs this point has been passed over. If the plan is to play small ball, ball control offense, we don't have an IOL built for that IMO. McGovern and Edwards are mediocre or worse run blockers. Not sure about Torrence yet but he has potential to very good against the run. Still that isn't a good enough trio if that's going to be our philosophy. I take the point that the Bills are trying to build a more physical offense but like you said that needs to start up front and they totally neglected that early in the draft. I'll be honest, I don't think there is a coherent plan here. The pieces on offense don't complement each other. Seems like the plan (again) is to trust that Josh and his OC will make it work.

That's a good comp, although Coleman isn't as big as Evans was coming out so he can't physically dominate CBs quite to that level. But it's funny, if you read Mike Evans scouting report it's almost identical: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mike-evans/32004556-4153-4309-b2ed-6b8233f6fea5

A lot of those contested catch opportunities were just bad and late throws by Jordan Travis that Coleman managed to get a hand on. That counts as a failed contested catch according to the metric. He can definitely win the 50/50 balls. Not 100% of the time mind you. That's why they're 50/50 balls. But last year we didn't have anyone in the WR room that could make those catches.