HappyDays

Well that's why it's not the Best Player award, it's the Most Valuable Player award. A QB should and will always win. Because if you take Barkley off the Eagles they probably still have the same number of wins, but if you take Allen off the Bills we probably have like 4 wins. Barkley will win OPOY which is what he deserves.

You know I've been willing to be critical of this regime. However I will say this year genuinely does feel different. Part of it is the record for sure. I am very much a "you are who your record says you are" kind of fan. Putting all the analytics aside, we're 9-2 for the first time ever under this regime. That's meaningful. We're 3-1 in games decided by one score (personally I would also classify the Chiefs game as a close game win, in the spirit of the term, and put us at 4-1 in that scenario). That's markedly improved from recent years. I know the common belief is that one score games are coin flips and that the record in those games isn't indicative of anything. I don't agree with that. I believe some teams have the structure and fortitude necessary to pull those games out more than others. Our team this year appears to have that makeup. I'm not going to discount analytics but they don't tell the whole story. The Chiefs rank 7th in DVOA yet I'm sure you would agree they are the Super Bowl favorite until proven otherwise. The reason for that is what I described above - they have the uncanny ability to pull out close games. I think a lot of games come down to 5% of the snaps. Analytics can tell you how a team compares in their performance over an entire game, but DVOA does not properly account for high leverage moments at critical junctures in a game. That 5% is not properly weighted in the data. The Bills and Chiefs have both been making winning plays in that 5%. That to me is more indicative of championship potential than whatever difference exists between them and other teams over the course of an entire game. What stands out to me is that we are finding multiple ways to win. Offense, defense, and special teams have all had a turn in creating blowouts or pulling out close wins. I'm more impressed with the defense than I have been in recent years. I recognize the analytics say that prior year defenses were better, but this defense creates plays in a way that I'm not used to seeing. We have at least one takeaway in every game this year. We got pressure on Mahomes like we never have before. We're making stops on 3rd and 4th down. The numbers might not show it but it feels different to me. On offense I feel the same. We have shown an ability to win in multiple ways. Again, I'm sure the 2020 numbers for example are better, but explosive passing offenses like that are mostly a relic of the near past. We have enough variety in our personnel that we can genuinely beat defenses any way they want to play us, and that has not been the case ever in the Josh Allen era. Also part of me thinks (hopes) that our injury luck may have been reversed this year. In the past we had seemingly nonstop injuries pop up in late December and January. This year all of the injuries are getting out of the way by the end of November. Of course we still have to see what our injury report looks like in a month, but again it just feels different to me. So I know a lot of this is just my feelings/eye test and I don't have the numbers to back any of it up. I will still worry about our coaching staff's ability to execute in high leverage moments in playoff games until they prove otherwise. But the results so far to me do not feel like more of the same. As of this moment I feel more optimistic now about the Bills Super Bowl chances than I ever have at this time of year in the Josh Allen era. If you don't, I get it.

Lets your own team know the same. Makes it easier to guys to make business decisions with Derrick Henry steaming towards them.

They're trying to create a downfield passing offense with Joshua Palmer. That ain't it.

He's done nothing wrong tonight though. Made big play after big play. His team just continually lets him down.

Honestly I feel bad for Herbert. I've commented a lot over the years about Allen's supporting cast, but no one's been given less to work with than him.

Aw Tre. He's on roller skates trying to cut out there.

What in the world did that ref see that made him think that wasn't a TD?

The Chargers have a good slot WR and JAGs outside. Not a hard passing offense to stop.

That's the problem, they don't have downfield passing weapons.

They do an unbelievable job of getting big linemen squared up against smaller defensive players. Then you get people trying to arm tackle Derrick Henry which hasn't been possible since he came out the womb.

Meh. They have a lack of skill position talent which creates a pretty hard ceiling. If you can score 24+ against them you're probably fine.

Yeah that is still the book on Lamar - force him to throw outside. Easier said than done because this offense has a lot of ways to beat you unlike previous years.

That's fair but Baltimore has the tiebreaker over Denver. I find it unlikely that they will end up with less wins than Denver but it's certainly possible.

I don't know, if Purdy was guaranteed to not play we might be favored by 9.5.

I'm still assuming KC is the #1 seed. So we want Baltimore to enter the playoffs as a wildcard. That makes it likely they play KC in the divisional round which is the dream scenario. We could have something like Denver in the wildcard and Pittsburgh in the divisional... That's as easy a path as you can get en route to the AFCCG likely in KC.

The best run defense is a dominating offense. Our two worst run defense games happened because we couldn't keep pace with Baltimore or pull away from Miami. Against Seattle and Indy we made the run defense a non-factor. The goal is to sell out to stop CMC early, get up by two scores as quickly as possible, and dare Purdy to beat you with his arm. The 49ers defense stinks this year and we will seemingly have our entire complement of weapons fully healthy so that strategy should be viable.

Good! Give me Brock Purdy throwing in the elements. Freezing rain would be even better.

I love that you can immediately tell from these conflicting reports that Woody Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Douglas are using the various insiders to engage in a public blame game battle. That franchise exudes dysfunction and they'll have a hell of a time convincing top coaching and front office talent to join the circus in the upcoming hiring cycle.

Watch every Bills TD so far:

I just don't worry about the money. If the cap goes up by the same percentage it went up last year, it will be $290M in 2025. OTC says we have $266M accounted for in 2025 so before making any moves at all we are likely to have $24M in cap space. Cutting Von Miller brings us to $32M. Rousseau will likely be extended in a way that brings his 2025 cap hit down by like $5M so that gets us to $37M. I bet we could finagle Daquan Jones into taking a pay cut and get us to $40M. Maybe we extend Josh Allen and kick some of his $43M cap number into future years. When all is said and done I would bet we have $40-45M in available cap space entering 2025. Signing Cooper even at $20M AAV would easily fit in, and it would just replace the Diggs contract that the front office had already accounted for in their long term plans. I hope Beane has learned you can't cheap out on outside WRs. A constant cycle of big contracts and big draft investments is the only way you keep that position at a perennial championship caliber level. I actually like Cooper more for the fact that he isn't an alpha personality. He gives you all the positives of a #1 WR without any of the usual personality drawbacks. Perfect fit for this roster and this locker room for the next two years IMO.

Correct. Thrown over the outside shoulder both times exactly like it was supposed to be.

He should be the priority re-signing in the offseason IMO. He'll be 31 in June so I accept there is a bit of risk there, but that's the same age Deandre Hopkins was when the Titans signed him last year, and I think Cooper's skill set will age fairly well. His presence on the field transforms our offense. Two of our TD drives against KC only happened because Cooper made big downfield catches on 3rd down, catches that the other WRs on our roster have failed to come down with this year. Those two plays are literally the difference between us winning or losing that game. We talk a lot about the need to have difference makers on the roster - what other proof do you need that Cooper is one? He's only been on the field 50% of the time or less in the games he's been active and he's already been able to make a huge impact with that limited snap share. So what is the argument to let him walk?

I'll take any team that is winning more with defense than offense right now. Pittsburgh, Denver, Chargers, I would even throw the Chiefs into that mix. Give me Allen and our fully healthy group of weapons versus any defense no matter how stout. Teams like the Ravens and Bengals scare me because they can drag you into a shootout and that becomes a coin flip.

Has anyone else noticed that Allen's deep ball miraculously looks better when Amari Cooper is the target? Must be a coincidence.