HappyDays

So the process you've described here isn't an NFL scouting process. You've essentially just watched his college tape and graded him on what he's done. That isn't NFL scouting. NFL scouting is about projecting the player to the next level. You're evaluating the player as, for example, "how well did he separate in the college tape I watched?" versus "can he develop the ability to separate at the NFL level?" Might seem like a small difference but it changes how you look at the prospect. For me, the answer to that 2nd question is clearly "yes." His size and strength and fluidity and movement with the ball in his hands tells me all the traits to separate are there. His competitiveness and known work ethic and known football character tell me the desire is there. His age and relative inexperience tells me the room to grow is there. So I'm not nitpicking every single college rep because that doesn't help me to answer the question that is being asked. I'm looking at the player and the person as a whole and projecting his ability to become successful at the next level by looking at the totality of his physical and character traits. Replace this entire post with references to Josh Allen instead of Keon Coleman and you'll understand why so many amateurs and fans (myself included) were embarrassingly loudly wrong about him six years ago.

Rapp is going to seriously injure one of his own teammates these days. What an idiot.

Re-posting from the OTA thread: Very first team drill of the very first OTA session open to the media and Coleman is getting starting reps. He's already earned the trust of the coaching staff. He'll be our day one X receiver IMO.

Here come the practice videos and updates: Notice that Coleman is getting worked into the starting offense early... No ramp up period for him. He's our starting X.

Breaking news:

Yeah but it's a re-tooling season anyways. Might as well get the rookie out there, let him develop his game and chemistry with Josh Allen.

Here's the full McDermott quote on Claypool: "Very impressed with Chase. Really just starting with his approach, here's a veteran receiver, former high pick, that has been on a journey, right, through the course of recently in his career. I applaud Chase for coming here to see where things go. He's very focused, he's working extremely hard day in and day out. And embracing not just the wide receiver role that he could play for us, but also the special teams role that he could play for us. You don't find that a lot around the NFL where a player has been at a certain level and then is on a mission right now to reclaim what he once was in that regard. And those are my words, maybe not fair to Chase, respectfully, but I would just say like very impressed with his day to day approach, true pro, high character, smart player, and he's been a good addition to our team." This is extremely high praise from the normally tight lipped McDermott. No clue if it will translate on the field but it's a good sign.

It's May. Talk is all you'll get for a few months...

This is something:

Media is in attendance today.

He's spent a total of two years of his life focusing exclusively on football. He just turned 21 last week. Give the kid a chance, yeah? Clearly he understands the game and is going to give everything he's got to become a great player.

Somewhat of a long read but worth your time. One nugget that I found interesting: There's a much publicized quote from Beane after the draft where he said something to the effect of "it will be hard for Coleman to start from day one." This is the messaging the team always puts out there for their rookies to hear. But he let slip their real plans in the chaos of draft weekend - Coleman is going to be the early favorite for the starting X receiver. And based on this article I think he's going to quickly earn the trust of the coaching staff and win that role.

Blows my mind that people still get arrested for marijuana possession in the year 2024. Stupid to get caught but I don't think they should get suspended for this and I doubt they will. Probably just a team fine.

Arm length isn't just about catch radius. In the context of this discussion it's about if he can play outside. Joe Marino pointed out a few weeks ago there have been three WRs ever with sub-30" arms that had meaningful careers - Isaiah McKenzie, Hunter Renfrow, and the 3rd one escapes me now but in any case it was all career slot WRs.

Unfortunately I think after the MVS signing there is almost no chance of a big trade. Maybe at the deadline. The top 5 WRs are locked in. Coleman, Samuel, and Shakir obviously. Hollins and MVS both got guaranteed money which is a sign that they are roster locks (OJ Howard is the only player that got guaranteed money and didn't make the roster in the Beane era). That leaves room for one more WR. If a trade was in the cards, I don't think we bother bringing Claypool and Hamler to camp. So before MVS I agreed a trade was still likely because there were two open spots and not enough candidates to fill them. With just one open spot I think the WR room is what it is, unfortunately. The 6th spot will be one of the scratch offs we've signed or it will be one of our late round/UDFA rookie WRs from last year. Unless Claypool or Hamler miraculously turns their career around I agree that Beane is going to look stupid but you should accept now that no big moves are coming.

Speed is good but size and physicality is where we've faltered in the playoffs. That's why I love the Keon Coleman pick. Of course I wanted us to draft one of each type of WR, one for size one for speed. It is frustrating that Beane has continued to do the absolute bare minimum at the position while continuing to invest ample resources in the DL to little effect when it matters. We're entering year 8 now, I think we just have to accept that's who this regime is unfortunately.

The article explains why it's meaningful:

I'm not being silly. It's actually very simple. Every single offense has a certain percentage of plays throughout the season where nobody gets open in time. Sometimes the defensive coverage just flat out wins. We can agree on this, yes? It follows that less talented offenses will have a higher percentage of those plays. So that's the other failing of this whole concept. "Just throw it to the open guy" is the kind of point you make in May when you're far enough away from watching games that you forget what NFL football looks like. The Bills already faced the highest man coverage percentage of any offense in the league last year. That wasn't a coincidence and it's not going to change until we give defenses a reason to fear it. Defenses last year figured out quickly they could just 1v1 us to death and trust that nobody on our side would win their matchup. Especially once Diggs fell off a cliff that was an easy strategy to follow and only Josh Allen magic tricks were able to overcome it with any level of consistency.

I wanted to come back to this. Yes I think Allen will hit 4,000 yards passing, although I'm not quite as certain as I want to be. His passing YPG last year was his lowest since 2019. That coincided with him not having a true #1 WR for the last 10 or so games. Clearly that limitation matters, the numbers prove it. Still he's an elite QB playing behind what's likely to be a top 10ish OL. 4,000 passing yards is the expectation. My question is who steps up for him in critical moments in critical games and in the playoffs? There's a really really really wide gulf between being a top 5 regular season team and winning a Super Bowl, as the Bills have exemplified better than anybody in recent memory. Those critical plays in critical moments are what bridge that gulf - it's why the Chiefs have won three Super Bowls - and it can't just be one player capable of making those plays. The whole notion of just "spreading the ball around" is fine for winning a lot of games, but it fails when you need somebody to make a special play and close out a game that matters. The game that gets you the #1 seed or gets you one round further in the playoffs. I think the gap between the two sides in this discussion is closer than it appears. Nobody thinks the Bills offense is going to suck this year. I'm sure everybody agrees it will hover around top 5ish pretty much no matter what and we'll make it to the divisional round pretty much no matter what. It's that next massive step that I worry about. The pure production numbers will all look great but we'll still be sitting here next February with the same disappointment and the same discussions playing out. Nobody will be able to put their finger on exactly why we failed but I guarantee it will be because of 5-6 individual moments throughout the season and playoffs that could have been made by more special players. As to your 2nd question - I think someone will hit 1,000 yards but again I'm not as confident as I'd like to be. And again I just don't really care that much. The better question is how many game changing special plays will players not named Josh Allen make? Plays like Garrett Wilson juggling and catching a one handed rebound against Tre White in the season opener. Courtland Sutton making a stunning toe tapping catch in the corner of the endzone on a prayer of a throw. Jake Elliott nailing a 60 yarder in the driving rain. For 99% of those games you might say the two teams were equal, for better or worse. That final 1% was closed by one player making one play and they certainly weren't wearing a Bills jersey.

What if nobody gets open