HappyDays

Hall is a reasonable pick on talent alone. I've heard he has character concerns so I'm not sure the Bills would consider him.

I suspect he'll win the poll because everyone knows safety is a need. I just personally have no interest in drafting a safety anywhere in the top 75 picks. It's too easy to find good players at that position later in the draft. Especially in McDermott's defense we don't need studs at the position, just smart players that can learn the defense and stick to their zones.

Out of this list I'm taking Kingsley Suamataia. This draft is strong at OT so we should try to spend a top 100 pick on one if possible. He also jumps out as someone that probably could have gone 20 picks higher and no one would have batted an eye. He is raw but has great physical traits (9.35 RAS score) and doesn't have to be rushed into a starting role. Ideally he would take over for Spencer Brown in 2025, meaning we would get a comp pick back for Brown and spend his cap space on more meaningful positions. Theoretically it's a good pick for value and long term team building.

The idea I considered is using Brown to trade up with Pittsburgh at #20, also swapping their #98 for our #128 as part of the deal. This would put Brown's value equal to pick #65 which sounds pretty fair to me. Maybe we throw in one of our 5ths to sweeten the deal. Pittsburgh would have both of their tackle positions figured out and they'd still have the same number of picks so it would make sense for both sides I think. From #20 getting to #6 wouldn't be as costly. Our 1st next year plus #98 this year might get it done (this is basically what the Chiefs gave us to move up for Mahomes). Ultimately we would basically give up Brown plus two 1sts to end up with an elite WR prospect. I would take that deal now if I could. I like Brown but RT is a much easier hole to fill than WR1.

I'll start off by pointing out every WR we're talking about as a possibility at #28 has a red flag or two in their game. That's inescapable at the bottom of the 1st round. That's why I'm banging the drum for a trade down and then double dipping at WR with our first two picks. Maximize the chance that we get a stud at the position while also picking up a 3rd rounder this year. I worry that I've been overselling my affinity for Keon Coleman. I don't think he's a true 1st round grade WR - in my eyes only three of those exist in this class. I just think his traits are winning traits in the NFL and that he would mesh well with Josh Allen. The upside pro comparison I would point to is Nico Collins. He also had questions on if he could separate coming out of Michigan, but his size and strength have turned him into a true #1 WR. I'm not saying anything groundbreaking here - size and strength are winning traits in the NFL. Those traits will allow Coleman to power through press coverage, box out defenders at his route break to create leverage, win the ball in the air, and bully defenders with the ball in his hands. The reason I am especially valuing those traits for the Bills is that I have seen our smaller WRs get pushed around in the playoffs for several years in a row now. I've seen Allen give his WR a chance to win the ball against 1v1 coverage only for the WR to lose the contest. Of course it's possible he will fail. He isn't going to win with speed or twitchiness. Perhaps he will struggle more than anticipated against physical coverage and he'll be relegated to the slot as some have predicted. I just see a lot people overemphasizing his red flags and underemphasizing his strengths, while doing the opposite with their own favored prospect. Personally I think the talk of separation metrics and contested catch percentage is a lot of bunk. WRs aren't usually creating yards of separation in the NFL. Their job is to create leverage to open up a throwing window. Coleman does plenty of that on film. As far as contested catches, Jordan Travis is a pure college QB that only throws into windows he can clearly see. Zero anticipation and modest arm strength meant that contested catches ended up being more contested than they should have been. There are times on film where Coleman is breaking wide open but by the time the ball gets to him the DB has caught up and made it into the window and is able to easily punch the ball away. With a QB like Allen, the ball will be on him immediately before the CB has a chance to do anything about it. I come away impressed by Coleman's college production because his skill set doesn't mesh well with a pure college QB. I don't know why Coleman would have issues beating press at the next level. He's already big and strong, and not even 21 yet so he probably has more room to grow into his already NFL caliber frame. He's reportedly very competitive and motivated to cash out in the NFL (some may scoff at this, but money is by far the greatest motivator) so I am confident he'll work hard on his release package. He has the frame of a true X.

It's just a 1-tech with effort concerns on tape. Like I said I would take a chance on the player on day three despite the character concerns.

Yeah the ones that involve an arrest, which is public record, usually make headlines.

I don't think Beane floated out an official police affidavit. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the fine people of TSW know better than to trade up for a 1-tech in any circumstance, let alone a player who just committed an all-time stupid mistake which justified preexisting character concerns.

Sweat is almost certainly going to be off our draft board. He has a reputation for partying and was driving way above the legal limit two weeks before the draft. No way we take a chance on a 1-tech with that kind of character concern in the 2nd round, and certainly not with a trade up. It's arguable if any 1-tech is worth a 2nd round pick. Now if he drops to us in say the 5th I would want the Bills to take a chance there because what do we have to lose?

Brady actually proves the point you're making. He undoubtedly had an elite set of weapons for most of his career. He had the best all around TE to ever play the game to go along with his solid (at least) WRs. His final year in New England they had a below average group of weapons and people declared his career over. Instead he joined a different team that had an elite set of weapons and immediately won another Super Bowl. It blows my mind that people still want to argue we don't need elite weapons when even the GOAT himself needed it. Also let's not generalize the conversation. Mahomes and Brady at different points had the benefit of elite playoff defenses that could carry the team when the offense faltered. Let's be honest, Allen isn't going to suddenly have an elite playoff defense unless another change is made. So we have to account for that in our team building strategy. The 2023 Chiefs are not a good model for us to follow.

I think you end up having an incredible rotation of weapons, the rookies don't have to be forced into a full time role, and we have enough weapons to make do even if one of them suffers an injury. I don't worry nearly as much as some fans do about snap count and target share. A deep stable of weapons is a good thing no matter how you swing it.

I would actually rather get two freaks at WR. Shoot for the moon. In my mind I've decided the most exciting pair would be Xavier Legette and Xavier Worthy. Trust that putting two freaks on the field with a freak QB will lead to explosive results. There might be rough patches at first, but hopefully by the time the playoffs roll around we would have an offense that could attack literally any spot on the field.

I vote Coleman even though I know he has no chance of winning. I really like Franklin but I can't help but think about all our recent playoff losses where our small-ish WRs have gotten pushed around by physical DBs. I want to make that a point of emphasis in this draft. If this scenario played out in the real draft I would love to take Coleman here then trade up for Franklin. Entirely avoid having to make the difficult choice.

I won't be surprised if the NFL really brings the hammer down on him. There's been too many similar incidents recently. They might want to make an example of him.

So because of the Patriots dynasty, teams should only draft QBs late on day three. Right?

That's really weak, man. By the way, you never answered my simple follow up question in this other thread: If you're gonna do nothing but write bad takes, at least do us the courtesy of coming back and admitting you were dumb. Like obviously you're just here as a troll but at least pretend otherwise, you know?

Beane has always gone physical traits in the 1st round. I'm probably projecting my own desires here but I think his plan might be to trade up in the 2nd (using the 2025 2nd we received in the Diggs trade) to take one of those route technician types, which would explain why he's meeting with all of them. I would bet 1st round will be Legette, Coleman, or Worthy. Allen has never had a physical stud on the field with him. I think Beane will try to correct that.

I came in knowing that a WR or OT would be the pick unless some other player really stuck out on the board. In my mind I was thinking that if a WR and OT were in an equal tier at my pick I would take the WR because of the Rashee Rice situation and the fact that WR is a more premium position. I didn't plan on trading up. And even as Mims fell I really didn't want to give up more than my 3rd rounder so #26 was the floor for me. As soon as he got there I started making calls. @Alphadawg7 will tell you we went back and forth for a while before agreeing on the value and multiple times I thought the trade was dead in the water. Very fun exercise. Thank you @Virgil for making it possible.

I just can't get excited about a route running specialist in the 1st round. Diggs was the best route runner in the NFL for three seasons. It was great in the regular season, but as we saw in the playoffs that skill set can be erased by physical DBs. The 1st round should be about physical traits.

Bills fans get that familiar feeling of despair as the Chiefs once again trade right in front of them... With the 27th pick, the SUPER BOWL CHAMPION Kansas City Chiefs select Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia. Buffalo @Virgil is on the clock. A WR? Nah. This is Andy Reid. He once engineered an offense that had 0 TDs scored by WRs over an entire season. At his core he is still an offensive line coach. WR was obviously a position of weakness for us last year but OT was arguably just as bad. Second year player Wanya Morris was mostly competent filling in for the oft-injured Donovan Smith, but when you're talking about protecting an elite QB you strive for much better than competent. Mims is a top 16 player on our board and we've been keeping our eye on him since the draft got to pick #20. We never thought he would fall this far so we feel that we are getting excellent value here even having to give up our 3rd. We didn't come into the draft feeling that OT was a necessity in the 1st round, the need plus BPA value just happen to be perfect here. The only real hole in Mims' game is that there just isn't much tape to go off of. He has only 8 career college starts but the physical traits are tantalizing, and he isn't as raw as his limited game experience would have you think. He has above average hand placement and usage which gives him a solid floor. Most importantly he has one of the highest ceilings of any player in the entire draft. Under Andy Reid's coaching we think we can get him to his ceiling and give Mahomes an elite blindside blocker for the next decade.

Joe Marino presented an interesting trade up scenario in his podcast today. It's contingent on Odunze falling to #9. Here is the proposal: Chicago receives: #28 #60 #128 2025 1st Buffalo receives: #9 #75 I will say it seems a bit undervalued for Chicago, not sure if they would go for it. But if this was doable I would sign up for this today. Getting a 3rd rounder back, coming away with Odunze, and still having both 2nds next year would be a perfect outcome. Get a WR with true #1 traits and elite football character.

Well this is just flat out not true. Even his critics would say those are his two best traits.

I think his skill set translates better to the NFL where he won't be stuck with a college QB that never throws with anticipation. A WR's job in the NFL is to create leverage that opens up a throwing window. Coleman can create leverage with his pure size + strength, plus more nuance to his route running than he gets credit for.