HappyDays

The thought process behind @Kirby Jackson's idea is that in the divisional round, the cheap CB and DT will probably give us as much production as the expensive CB and DT that we've already paid. Whereas the top WR will vastly out perform Trent Sherfield (and probably Diggs too for that matter). I don't know if I'm alone on this but I'm evaluating every possible draft option under the assumption that the defense will underperform in the playoffs pretty much no matter what. That's what history tells us will happen. So just about anything that moves resources from the defense to the offense, I am going to support.

It's getting to a point where teams should draft nothing but QB, EDGE, WR, or LT in the 1st round. Maybe a 3T if they're really sticking out. The value difference between those positions and the rest is just too high to justify anything else.

In Australia the draft already aired, but the whole country has been sworn to secrecy.

Couple other interesting nuggets from that article:

A lot of great nuggets in here (for ESPN+ subscribers) including this on the Bills:

Getting in front of Miami is too rich for my blood. If they take Worthy I think it's a colossal mistake on their part and I would be inclined to just let them make that mistake and accept a different player for the Bills. I think if anything you have to get in front of Dallas at #24 and steal their player for a second year in a row. Currently Minnesota has the #23 pick. Good chance they trade it away in a big move up though. To get from #28 to #23, one move that lines up with the draft value chart would be giving up our 2025 2nd from the Diggs trade and getting back a 2024 4th to balance the scales. In that scenario we would still have plenty of day three ammo to move up in the 2nd round if we wanted and probably enough to get into the bottom of the 3rd round too. Come away with something like: -Worthy at #23 -Legette/Coleman/Polk at #53(ish) -Pick #100(ish) -5 day three picks

If we do this, I hope we trade up again in the 2nd for Coleman or Legette or Polk. Pair the speedy small WR with the big bodied contested catch specialist. I don't care if it means we have barely any picks on day three and have to give up one of our 2nds next year. Get two physical studs that win in different ways and put them on the field with Josh Allen for the next 5+ years, and the rest will figure itself out.

I still am not 100% sure if ECB always gets real info or not, but I have seen enough from him to give some credence to his info. If this report is true, it is very interesting. The day before the 2022 draft it was reported by someone who worked for I think The Draft Network that we had brought Elam in on a top 30 visit earlier that week. This was not a widely publicized visit, it was kept under wraps except for that one writer that got the scoop. Last year after the draft Beane revealed that they had met virtually with Kincaid a couple times earlier in the week because they had zeroed in on him as a possible target. This was never reported by anybody. So this tweet from ECB is the kind of report I have been looking out for - a last minute report with information that isn't widely publicized that says we are doing work on a prospect the week of the draft. There might be something to this. In the 1st round Beane loves prospects with elite physical traits that interview well and have a good personality. Worthy fits the profile.

Yeah Joe has been banging the drum for taking a non-WR. He has called Chop Robinson, Cooper Dejean, and Johnny Newton "sprint to the podium" picks. He makes a common draftnik mistake of looking at the draft in a vacuum where the goal is to make the best singular pick irrespective of any context. Of course in reality the draft is entirely context-driven. Certain positions inherently have more value. Certain teams have not invested in certain positions to the degree that they should. A lot of draftniks, Joe included, have made this realization in regard to RBs, but have yet to make the leap from that to a wider philosophy that extends to every position in some fashion. From a bird's eye view taking a CB/safety hybrid in the 1st round would of course be a terrible decision for the Bills, but he is looking at it from just the standpoint of his own personal draft grades. It's the definition of missing the forest for the trees.

Yeah he has been too high on a few QBs, but he hasn't been too low on any that I can remember. Even from that same draft he said that he liked Trevor Lawrence, just didn't see him as a generational prospect like most people thought, and I would say that assessment of Lawrence turned out correct.

Chris Simms is lower on Drake Maye than just about anyone, has him as his 6th ranked QB behind Williams, Daniels, Nix, Penix, and McCarthy (in that order). The concern he's noted is that he thinks Maye is more of a project than the others and will need to rework a lot of his mechanics before seeing the field. He says Maye loses control of too many throws for seemingly no good reason. Curious if you saw any of this in your evaluation.

I've considered this as well. Last year I liked Jalin Hyatt as a potential 1st round pick for us and instead he went in the 3rd. WRs with that sort of frame tend to fall further than draftniks predict.

With the 12th pick the Chicago Bears select Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA. Las Vegas @NewEra is on the clock. It was down to Latu or Murphy for us at #9, so we are elated to come away with a 3rd and a 4th round pick, and still get one of our top choices. Latu fits a clear need. Trading for Montez Sweat has turned out great but we have no one to write home about on the other side. The only concern with Latu is medicals but recent reports are that he has been cleared, so we are more than comfortable taking him here. Latu has an extremely advanced repertoire of pass rush moves. He has a TJ Watt ceiling and is ready to start from day one. Our defense suddenly looks scary and we are ready to compete for the NFC North title.

The Bears would still like to trade down again but I'll make my pick in 30 minutes if no offers come through.

He really couldn't though. When officials keep their flags in their pockets during the playoffs, he disappears. CBs get their hands on him and grab at him and he can't get off the coverage. The Bills have dipped into the well of small-ish shifty route runners way too many times and it just isn't working to get us over the hump. Allen has to stand on his head while juggling three rabbits just to sustain drives in the playoffs. Nobody steps up to make a play for him. I want someone that is going to step up and make a play.

Yeah if you told me for sure we are getting a Diggs caliber player in the 1st round of course that is a no brainer sprint to the podium pick. But obviously it's extremely unlikely he reaches that ceiling, and I'm just saying if you're already trying to bet on an unlikely projection you might as well bet on an unlikely projection that you know can dominate late into January and February. So for me the answer to the question is Legette without any hesitation. But I'll admit the rumors about Legette's intelligence scare me a bit so my true answer might be "neither." It's hard if not impossible to make these decisions when we're missing at least 20% of the necessary information.

I mean absolute ceiling. His best trait is route running so Diggs is probably his absolute ceiling. But my whole thing is I want a WR whose absolute ceiling is dominant WR1 in the playoffs, at least with our 1st round pick. In the 2nd sure take McConkey, that's the right value for him. If his absolute ceiling is a guy that can't beat physical coverage outside I really have no interest in that player in the 1st round. And I can't think of anyone with McConkey's skill set that fits the profile I'm looking for.

The Bears are looking to trade down from #9 if anyone wants to get some early offers in.

I would like one of the McConkey fans to tell me, who is the comp player for his ceiling? Legette I can say it's AJ Brown. McConkey I can't think of anyone with his skill set that became a truly elite WR. Maybe Stefon Diggs but if that's the ceiling it's not good enough. We need someone that has the potential to dominate in the playoffs.

If the rumor about his low intelligence is true, it makes sense that we wouldn't be high on him. Our offensive system requires smart WRs that know how to read a defense and get to where they're supposed to be. It's why I think Beane will do everything he can to trade up for Odunze if he gets past pick #7 or so. He fits the type of prospect this regime has drafted in the 1st round, and happens to have some elite traits that you don't find at the bottom of the 1st round.

Not sure what he'll do but I think sticking at 28 is the least likely scenario. If one of the top 3 WRs makes it to 8ish I think he will try to make a blockbuster trade up. If someone with a 1st round grade is sticking out on his board in the 20s he is going to trade up for them using one of our 4ths. If all the 1st round grades are wiped out by then I predict a trade back with Washington to recoup our 3rd round pick. So it just depends on how the board falls.

The complimentary stuff is just that his size and speed means he has a high ceiling. Which is definitely true, but man I just can't get past his lack of edge. I really think someone with his skill set needs that. It's like if he doesn't win the release and separate vertically, the play is dead on arrival. And I don't think that alpha mentality is something you ever develop.