HappyDays

Yeah. Look at their coaching staffs and then look at ours. I'm sorry but there's no comparison. The Eagles are a better comparison for what we need to do. They have an all star roster with two top tier pass catchers. That's going to be our most likely path to success. More than 10 years back might as well be ancient history in the NFL. And I'm trying to be fair, I'm looking at all Super Bowl participants not just Super Bowl winners. The participants in recent Super Bowls have all had a pass catcher that at the time was very clearly a top tier weapon. KC this year was really the lone exception. Agreed the defensive scheme/coaching was the biggest problem. There's only one possible change there and it isn't happening so that's that. Disagree that DL pressure was a big problem. Mahomes was getting the ball out in less than 2 seconds. Our contain rush was certainly poor but again that's coaching. DBs were a huge issue in this game and I hope we make some big investments in the secondary, but we've had multiple all-pros in the secondary and still given up ridiculous production in the playoffs. So of those 3 concerns the secondary is the only one where I think we can make meaningful improvements this offseason. None of that means the offense was good enough. Allen has had the ball in his hands last in two consecutive playoff games and we couldn't punch it in. That should be the dream scenario with an elite QB but he needs help around him to make it count.

Apparently they now plan to tag him to try and sign him to a long term deal: With Mike Brown involved I'll believe it when I see it. I can't imagine him giving the type of up front money that would be needed to extend both Higgins and Chase. Either way if they tag him that likely makes it impossible for us to acquire him.

Sure, he can. But why is our goal for our all-world QB to "get by" with his pass catchers? The goal should be for him to dominate and steamroll the competition and leave no doubt. Seems like some people are stuck on semantics. It is of course possible for the Bills to win the Super Bowl without a top tier pass catcher. Just like it's possible for Nick Foles to win a Super Bowl. But what we're talking about is not what's possible but what's likely. And recent Super Bowl history plus recent Bills history would tell you that it is more likely we will get to the Super Bowl if we have a top tier pass catcher.

I would stay away from dynasties in these discussions. Dynasties break all the rules, they're not good comparisons. We would need an all-time great coaching staff to emulate the Pats or Chiefs dynasties. As an example KC won the Super Bowl last year with bad OT play. Does that mean OTs are overrated? Of course not. But they're allowed to break the rules and still compete for a Super Bowl. We'll need to go the more traditional route. So staying away from dynasties (and even the Chiefs and Pats had Tyreek Hill and/or Kelce or Gronkowski during their Super Bowl runs) here are the top tier pass catchers that have reached the Super Bowl in recent years: AJ Brown (twice) Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle Cooper Kupp Ja'Marr Chase Mike Evans That's the last 7 years of Super Bowl history. Every team has needed players of that caliber to even get to the Super Bowl, and as noted even the Chiefs had at least one top tier pass catcher every year until this year when Kelce really dropped off. It's just not a position you can hide unfortunately. No one says a top tier pass catcher guarantees a Super Bowl appearance, but seemingly one is necessary to have a good chance of getting there. We once again fell short this year because Allen's pass catchers let him down on the final drive of the season. Yes there were plenty of other issues in that game especially on defense, but every one of them would have been overcome if we had had the necessary pass catching talent to close the deal on that final drive. Which is exactly the same outcome as what happened the previous year.

Bond in the 2nd round has grown on me. My initial hesitation was he makes Curtis Samuel a redundancy, but then again why should Samuel influence our draft strategy at all given how disappointing he was? So yeah I'm all about getting a younger faster talent to fill that role even if it means giving up on Samuel. I just don't know if Beane will be willing to do that.

I worry that his skill set is too similar to what we've already had, but my usual disclaimer is that how the player turns out is what really matters. I'm not going to turn my nose up at any decently high WR investment. Beane just has to be right about the player. I'm ideally looking for more of a speed/separation WR from this draft. Matthew Golden seems like the one player available at #30 that would fit the profile and be worth the pick, but admittedly it's hard for me to imagine him being the BPA at that pick. A trade up for Egbuka is the other 1st round option if he drops low enough. I know you said he's a slot WR but it doesn't seem like a Ladd McConkey situation where he's likely to a slot-only at the next level. Seems like his ability to get off press and separate outside is a matter of experience more than physical ability. And yeah that's why I keep coming back to Higgins (or Metcalf if Seattle is willing to trade him). The draft just doesn't present a lot of good options to fix the WR room. It's either use our 1st round pick and still add someone like Darius Slayton/Hollywood Brown, or make a major investment in FA/trade and then still draft one before round 5. I can't imagine just adding like a Darius Slayton and a round 4 WR. If that happens I can almost guarantee we'll again be looking for a mid-season trade to fill out the room.

Unfortunately they've backed themselves into a corner at WR because they didn't take advantage of earlier opportunities.

Tampa Bay at #19 would be the target if they want Egbuka badly enough. By the trade value chart one of our 2nd rounders would get us up that far. I'm not sure Beane would do it though, he's been unwilling to part with his 2nd rounders. Maybe missing out on BTJ last year because of that unwillingness will make him more bold.

Yes I really agree with this. We have a good amount of cap space to utilize for the first time in a while and a lot of draft picks. The core of the roster and both primary coordinators are back. The division is still at least one year away from being remotely competitive, and as noted the overall schedule and conference look weaker than 2024. This is partly why I'm laying off calling for McDermott or Beane to be fired - all of the moves that they made last offseason were really about positioning the team for this offseason, so they've earned the right to try and finish the job in maybe their most favorable season yet. Year one of Allen's second window went better than anybody expected and now they're in prime position to close the deal if they spend their substantial resources appropriately and learn from their past mistakes. They made one splash move in 2020 and another in 2022... 2025 seems like the right year for the next splash move to take advantage of favorable resources and a favorable conference.

I think we pushed him back on the field way too soon. I remember seeing Banged Up Bills post something about how players on average clear concussion protocol faster for playoff games. Nothing suspicious about that of course. So yes I'm sure the second concussion was a direct result of the first one which makes me sick to think about. But as far as I can remember those are the only two concussions he's suffered in his career. In recent NFL history Tua is the only player I can think of who has had his career really disrupted by a tendency to get concussions. It's just not something I worry about with Benford. Maybe I'm wrong and we'll get burned if we extend him early. But he's a very good player, he's a scheme fit, he fills a premium position, and I don't think he'll blow up the market. I'd take the risk.

Maybe I missed something but I've never seen Higgins be a problem or a ball hog. He's played second fiddle to Ja'Marr Chase for his entire career. At this point he's going to go to the highest bidder as he should. But I'm also using Higgins as a generic stand-in for any top tier WR. That's where our offensive resources need to be spent.

No he was on the inactive list quite a bit. After first coming off IR they gave him like 2 games but he was terrible so the rest of the year he was mostly inactive including against KC if I'm remembering correctly. But I won't jump to conclusions about this draft class yet. The 2022 draft class that looks so good now looked terrible after year one. Elam lost his job to a 6th rounder in Benford who looked decent but nothing special back then, Cook was stuck as RB2, Bernard barely saw the field and when he did he looked terrible, Shakir couldn't carve out a role. 2023 is not looking good, admittedly it was known to be a poor class but still. A 1st and a 4th used on Kincaid looks like very poor value right now, Torrence has been decent but iffy, Williams has been decent but iffy, none of the later round picks did anything. Beane's recent draft legacy will depend on how last year's draft picks develop. It is just alarming how he's drafted exactly ZERO difference makers except for the very first pick he ever made. Spencer Brown is as close as he's gotten to finding an elite player with an original draft pick. Way too many singles or strike outs.

You'd think they'd have gotten lucky at this point if nothing else. Even the Raiders in all their years of poor drafting stumbled on Maxx Crosby in the 4th round. I worry that Beane/McDermott play it too safe in the draft. They don't take chances on players that don't match the exact culture and scheme fit they're looking for. So by narrowing their own board they aren't giving themselves enough chances at finding elite talent.

Benford - I guess this is an unpopular opinion now but I'd extend him this offseason. Part of it is I don't think Spotrac's valuation is right - people put too much stock in their number, the actual AAV often turns out to be wildly different. No one across the NFL media sphere has recognized Benford and no fanbase is clamoring for their organization to sign him. That stuff matters when franchises have to sell moves to their fans, and I just can't see someone offering him $22M AAV. He's primarily a zone corner in a CB-friendly scheme and he's had an injury history. All of the concerns we have about extending him will lower his market value. I don't personally worry about the concussions. 4 years ago everyone was sure Morse was one concussion away from retiring but he's still playing. Concussions are random. If anything it just gives us leverage at the negotiating table. It's become clear to me that McDermott's scheme although CB-friendly also works much better when you have good CBs on the field. We made it work with the likes of Dane Jackson and Levi Wallace, but it was its most dominant version when Tre White was in his prime. Benford isn't quite at that level but he's still a plus player. I'd much rather just have that spot locked up and look to the draft to try and find a true shutdown CB, versus completely starting over at CB in 2026. Shakir - Let him play out his deal, than tag and trade him in 2026 if you know you can get a 3rd or more. I really appreciate what Shakir brings to the offense but slot WRs with YAC ability can be found on any day of the draft. He isn't going to become an outside/downfield WR and that's where we need to make our biggest investments. Bernard - Let him play out the year and see. If he stays relatively healthy and plays well I'd be comfortable giving him like $7M AAV in 2026. If he has a repeat of 2024 give him 1 year $4M or something like that. A player with his size and injury history isn't going to blow up the FA market no matter how he performs this year. Cook - I've laid out my thoughts in the other thread. I'd look for a trade partner now, ideally a 3rd but I'd take a 4th if it's the best offer. That's $5.2M in immediate cap savings which is fairly significant and you can use the pick to draft another RB.

He was on the field on 2nd down of the last series. He got blown up in pass protection which caused Allen to have to get rid of the ball early and the LB was able to tip the pass as a result, otherwise Samuel was going to be open for at least a 1st down gain and maybe more on a whip route. It's more complicated than just how good Cook is, unfortunately. As recently as one month ago I was saying I'd be okay extending Cook because I recognize his talent and his value to the team. The problem is we currently have gaping holes in the WR room, on the DL, and in the secondary. Extending Cook directly impacts our ability to add to those more important areas. That $12M per season or whatever Cook ends up getting is the difference between signing like Darius Slayton vs signing Tee Higgins. I absolutely take Higgins plus any random RB over Cook and Slayton. For me it's not even close. Because as great as Cook was last year, on the final drive of the season he was no help at all and in fact was a detriment. Allen throwing the ball downfield, or a defense that can force more than two punts (ideally both), is going to be our best path to a championship. All of our resources need be spent on developing that path. I'm frustrated that Beane neglected to build the passing offense while Cook was on a rookie deal. Having an elite passing offense plus his rushing ability could have produced a 40 PPG offense. But it's too late for that now and we have to choose one or the other.

Unfortunately our defense's performance against Baltimore doesn't count because they were missing Zay Flowers.

I did point to concrete things. But you ignored them.

He didn't complain when his hand picked OC got fired. Allen strikes me as a "take things as they come" sort of player. I don't expect him to ever meet Pegula to ask for McDermott to be fired, or to complain if McDermott is ultimately fired.

In his year end presser Beane talked about being disappointed in Kincaid's functional strength and in Coleman not recovering from injury well. I would bet that's why they made this move. If for no reason than to send a message to the players - "if you don't put in the work, it costs people their jobs."

It's not the scheme. It's the coaching details. Our contain rush fundamentals are poor. Our CB depth in man coverage is poor. Our zone spacing is poor. Our blitz packages are predictable and have poorly planned coverage schemes behind them. I mean come on man. KC had basically 4 uncontested drives in a row to start the game. Yeah the talent could be better. But we're not an expansion team. That kind of horrific defensive breakdown doesn't happen unless the coaching is poor. And something similar has happened every year. The talent keeps changing but the result is always the same. You have to be willfully blind not to see it. And that's why the argument always boils down to "well it could be worse" because there is no other argument you could make. It's a loser's argument. I'm not worried about the coaching getting worse, I'm worried about it never getting better because that means we're stuck in purgatory.

My top two options in order were Vrabel and Ben Johnson. But they're both taken now. Ask me again next year. I'd probably favor someone in the Vrabel mold if one is available because I'd rather not have a rookie head coach getting accustomed to the job. But if the season ends with our playoff opponent punting no more than twice and making it look easy against our defense, I really won't care who we hire. I'm just so sick of it at this point.

The Steelers with Allen would be competing for the division title every year. The Bills if they were in the AFCN would have been the wildcard a couple times by now. It's just not a comparable situation at all. I'm laying off McDermott this offseason but this has to be the year. We've given him and Beane all of Allen's 20s and they haven't even gotten us to one Super Bowl. For the life of me I can't understand how any Bills fan wouldn't want to give someone else a try. If there was improvement I'd say ok let him stick around no matter what, but every single year the playoff loss looks exactly the same with our defense giving up well above average production. If that happens again for the 6th time in a row why should we expect it to change?

Come on man, Cook has worked his ass off. A lot of players didn't show up in the AFCCG. He was one of a few that did and made an incredible individual play to steal a TD. He's earned the right to play hardball and make as much as he can. Teams don't show blind loyalty to their players and players shouldn't be expected to show blind loyalty to their teams. That's especially true for RBs who know they might have one good shot at a contract that sets them up for life.

Yeah I've come around to this idea. I respect what James Cook is doing, really I do, but a team paying a QB can't be dealing with a RB hold out. The position just isn't worth the headache. Get like a 3rd/4th for him if possible and go all in on adding downfield passing weapons to make up for it. Then draft his replacement in the middle rounds. This is exactly what KC would do.