HappyDays

I love how every QB axis chart I've seen has Josh Allen living on his own island way out of reach from everyone else. This one is showing that he faces blitzes at an average rate but demolishing defenses when they try them. Looks like he's at roughly 0.8 EPA per play on blitzes. In other words, when defenses choose to blitz him they are adding almost a whole point to our side of the scoreboard.

They have cheaper ownership that isn't willing to pay as much cash up front like Pegula is. It's one legitimate advantage we have over them.

You haven't been the same since we lost Scottlaw forever. What is Abbott without his Costello?

I'm not sure he'll be quite as expensive as people think because he is still purely a zone corner IMO. Teams don't value that as much. But he's a perfect fit for our defense so I would absolutely pay him a market value long term extension as soon as the season ends. I heard today he has a 14.6 passer rating on throws against his coverage this year. As a point of reference, Nate Peterman's passer rating in that one game (you know the one) was 17.9.

Remember when Brian Daboll made Josh Allen? And then when Stefon Diggs made Josh Allen? Can't wait for next offseason when people say Mack Hollins made Josh Allen.

Yeah the one lingering concern is 4th quarter two minute drill and we're down by 6 points. Do we have the talent to win in that situation? I suppose the solution is don't end up in that situation to begin with, which is entirely possible if the offense continues performing as well as it has.

My biggest concern all along was the WRs. Honestly the WRs are performing almost exactly as I expected them to, for better and worse. Shakir is good for ~4 targets per game and is extremely efficient with that sort of volume, and is a YAC monster. Hollins is good for 1 catch a game but is a great run blocker. Coleman is being brought along slowly as he should be. MVS is the same guy he was with the Chiefs. Samuel has actually been worse than what I expected, almost a non-factor so far. Most impressive thing for me across the board from the WRs is that there have been zero drops that I can remember. I don't take this for granted. A passing offense that lacks a lot of explosive pass plays has a low margin for error, and the WRs to their credit are not committing errors. All of that being said I was 100% totally wrong about the offense being capable of performing at a top 3 level with a relatively middling group of WRs. Three thoughts from me on why I was wrong: 1) Josh Allen is playing better than I've ever seen him. It's Tom Brady with an occasional flash of the Superman cape. Since making one mistake on his first drive of the season he has been as close to perfect as could be reasonably expected. 2) I way underrated the importance of the OL in my offseason analysis. Any group of pass catchers will get open eventually when the QB is kept clean long enough. It's not even just about how little pressure they're giving up, it's how clean the pocket is on almost every throw. I did not even consider that the pass protection could be as good as it has been, which was a mistake on my part. 3) I'm a broken record on Joe Brady at this point but I love the way he keeps it simple. Daboll was too cute, Dorsey was too scattershot. Brady just asks his players to do what they do best and gameplans based on his opponent. That formula sounds so easy but 90% of coaches somehow get it wrong. I hope he never develops an ego. He isn't concerned about the offense looking sexy, just doing the right thing on every down based on the personnel and the opponent. All of these factors tie together in a way that is just so smooth. Allen playing this well and getting the ball out quick means Brady's job is easier and the OL doesn't have to hold up for too long. The OL protecting well means Allen's throwing mechanics are always clean and he hasn't looked flustered or out of control a single time this season. Brady using his personnel well and mixing up play calls keeps the offense on schedule and avoids game changing mistakes, and Allen is the beneficiary. Tougher tests to come but who can reasonably have a complaint about this offense right now? Very clean execution from everybody across the board in a way that I didn't really think was possible.

Also our role players are actually just playing roles now. I still contend that Gabe Davis's best year was as a rookie in 2020 where he was doing nothing but taking advantage of broken coverage downfield and making sideline catches against DBs far down the depth chart. We tried to make him a #2 WR and it just didn't work. Mack Hollins isn't being asked to be a #2 WR. He's being asked to make 1 catch a game and otherwise block his tail off. Shakir isn't being asked to be Cooper Kupp, he's being asked to make a few catches in space and create with his legs. Nothing too complicated about why our offense has been successful. Everyone is being asked to do only what they do well and we are actually gameplanning against each individual opponent. I feel like 80% of coaches somehow miss these two simple ingredients. Doesn't hurt that we have an all time QB playing at the top of his game but credit where credit is due to Brady for getting Allen to play this well in a style that you wouldn't think naturally suits his skill set.

Kromer is the one guy on the coaching staff that I feel confident in saying he is the very best at his job in the entire league. For a style of offense that really relies on its OL, we are extremely lucky to have him. I worry that if Brady gets hired as head coach somewhere he will take Kromer with him as OC.

I have been on Cook about his drops but that is a very tough catch for a RB. It is nothing like some of the lollipops he was dropping last year. That's the only one he's dropped this year so I really can't complain. Just keep catching the easy ones.

Josh Allen still has his septum intact so I find this hard to believe

This is a game Rousseau's skill set was made for. The ultimate edge setter, the ultimate contain rusher. The Ravens are weak up front so I don't expect Lamar to have easy escape lanes anywhere. I don't know, I get nervous about every game but nothing about the Ravens particularly scares me. Basically just don't let Derrick Henry take over the game and don't make dumb mistakes on offense and we win by multiple scores.

There are no new concepts. These are old concepts, called and executed to perfection. If defenses want to stop it, it will have to be through an elite front four performance against our stout pass protection. That or just hope for an off game from us. Because when these boys are executing like they have since their 2nd drive of the season, no one is game planning their way out of it.

I have to eat crow on Tyler Bass. I called him out for the missed XP. Having now seen the All-22 of the play, it wasn't on him. The kick was high enough. Tylan Grable got walked back on his block and his man got leverage to jump up and get a handle on the ball. With that in mind Bass has only truly missed one kick so far this season and I think on that one he slipped or never got his footing right. He has been sufficient this season. Still don't trust him in a critical moment but he isn't actively hurting the team right now.

I agree, you shouldn't build theories around single play high variance events.

Probably a few times, yeah. Really think about what you're saying here. Your argument boils down to nothing matters other than the QB. You recognize that makes exactly zero sense, right?

The important thing when we inevitably lose is that we don't let it snowball into a midseason slump. That's what's happened every other year under McDermott. It's not the loss that kills us, it's how much it drags the team down for an extended period that ultimately keeps us out of the #1 seed. We can get there. The conference is not nearly as strong as people expected. Right now it is just us and the Chiefs competing for the #1 seed. Neither one of us will go 17-0 so it's all about who responds to that first loss and probably the winner of our head to head matchup.

He's shown a knack for breaking up passes at the catch point without commiting DPI. Huge underrated skill that becomes very important in critical moments.

Really the only weakness on the line is run blocking up the middle. But you will sacrifice that in favor of excellent pass blocking all day in the modern NFL. Compare to the Chiefs who have excellent run blocking up the middle but are having issues in pass protection on the edges and their offense clearly has looked clunkier than ours through three games. Our pass protection is easily the 2nd biggest reason we are dominating every defense we play so far.

No I think Brady is the GOAT. Better than Peyton Manning for sure. But I also think that the difference between Brady and Manning does not solely explain 7 SB wins vs 2 SB wins. Making that point for me is the fact that Manning got one of his in the worst season of his career. When you combine an elite QB with an elite coaching staff and an elite playoff defense you get a dynasty. That's what the Pats had and that's what the Chiefs have now.

Fine but who cares but random people think? A lot of random NFL fans thought Brock Purdy belonged in the MVP conversation last year. This is the last thought on my mind in the discussion.

LB is a plug and play position... Same with safety. As long as you don't have truly awful players in those spots you're fine. Football is still played primarily on the edges and on the boundary and the Bills have really good EDGEs and really good boundary CBs. The fans that thought losing Milano and Taron Johnson were impossible obstacles to overcome were wrong. They're both luxury players, not the engine that makes it all work. So no Spector and Williams to my eyes have not been outstanding, nor has Cam Lewis, but they have been good enough to let the more important pieces on defense function.

You can get there with basic logic. Let's say a team's success is 40% offensive roster, 35% defensive roster, 10% special teams, 15% coaching. In that scenario if you want to say a QB is worth 60% of the offense's success then you are saying a QB is 24% of his team's success. Feel free to quibble with these numbers but I doubt you'll argue with the overarching point and logic I'm using. Like I said this doesn't mean QBs aren't extremely important. A single player having a 25% impact on their entire team is ridiculous value actually. And that's why QB stats correlate with wins. But if you're talking about two individual teams the QB alone is not going to be the difference. Especially not in effectively a three game sample size which is what separates Allen and Mahomes in the playoffs. Easier way to say it is that QBs are responsible for a plurality of their team's success but not the majority. That's why my hypothetical trade example kind of ends the discussion if you're being honest with yourself. Mahomes vs Allen does not explain the Chiefs success vs the Bills success in recent years.

It makes it obvious. But it is very hard to get some people to understand that QBs are responsible for maybe 25% of their team's success. Now for the most part the other 75% that makes up a team's success isn't all that different from team to team, so that 25% is absolutely a BIG piece of what defines a team because of the higher variance. But when QBs are fairly equal between one team and another, the other 75% is what makes the ultimate difference.