HappyDays

I agree but our first OL pick this year was in the 5th round despite it being a very deep OL class. With all the talk of WRs this point has been passed over. If the plan is to play small ball, ball control offense, we don't have an IOL built for that IMO. McGovern and Edwards are mediocre or worse run blockers. Not sure about Torrence yet but he has potential to very good against the run. Still that isn't a good enough trio if that's going to be our philosophy. I take the point that the Bills are trying to build a more physical offense but like you said that needs to start up front and they totally neglected that early in the draft. I'll be honest, I don't think there is a coherent plan here. The pieces on offense don't complement each other. Seems like the plan (again) is to trust that Josh and his OC will make it work.

That's a good comp, although Coleman isn't as big as Evans was coming out so he can't physically dominate CBs quite to that level. But it's funny, if you read Mike Evans scouting report it's almost identical: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mike-evans/32004556-4153-4309-b2ed-6b8233f6fea5

A lot of those contested catch opportunities were just bad and late throws by Jordan Travis that Coleman managed to get a hand on. That counts as a failed contested catch according to the metric. He can definitely win the 50/50 balls. Not 100% of the time mind you. That's why they're 50/50 balls. But last year we didn't have anyone in the WR room that could make those catches.

Sorry, I'm just sick of watching the organization fail to seriously invest in their franchise QB. The last time Allen took the field he had to run around with his air on fire and do backflips just to keep us in the game while our defense got stomped on. His outside pass catchers let him down big time. And I'm shocked the organization hasn't made that the singular priority of this offseason. What happened to Beane's mantra that your last game tells you who you are? Did you come away from our last game thinking that safety, backup DT, and RB2 were our biggest weaknesses? They added one outside WR to replace the two that they lost. It just doesn't make any sense to me. I don't think the 5th ranked offense is enough to win a Super Bowl under current leadership. It will have to be the very best or close to it to overcome our defense in the playoffs. I agree defense matters to winning championships, I'm just not expecting our defense to suddenly play at that level no matter how much we invest in it. So I'm done with balance. I would rather our resources be entirely lopsided in favor of betting on Allen and his weapons to steamroll their way to a championship. And instead of dancing around it I'll just say it - I don't believe McDermott as a defensive coach is good enough to ever have an elite defense capable of winning a championship with just a top 5 offense. I think he needs an uber talented offense that can put up close to 30 points a game and let his defense play with a lead. Even then it might not be enough as we learned in the 2021 divisional round, but it's our best shot.

Sure, I too don't expect to seriously contend for a Super Bowl this year. I guess I just don't have a lot of optimism that they're going to go all in on pass catching weapons next offseason. Seems like every year except for 2020 we get to November and we realize that we don't have enough weapons, and every offseason they punt on seriously investing in the position until the following year. Then the following year comes and it's rinse and repeat. What makes you optimistic this regime will suddenly make it a priority next year? And why not add those weapons now so they're developed and ready to contribute in 2025 when our second Super Bowl window should be opening?

In classic Beane fashion I thought late day three was the best part of our draft. A possible starting center in the 5th round, long term bets on OL with traits, and a couple guys that play special teams so we can stop paying the Siran Neals and Tyler Matakevichs of the word. Wish they had taken a swing on a WR at some point on day three, but whatever once they drafted a safety, a backup DT, and a backup RB with the middle of our draft I knew what kind of class this was going to be. I agree they found cheap rookie options to fill out the bottom of the roster, which is something I've been advocating for. Hopefully this year they are willing to actually let those rookies be on the roster and active on gamedays. I would rather see Solomon make the roster than Toohill for example. Might as well given the overall state of the roster, this is going to be a down year IMO. Of course what they didn't do is make it a priority to build the offensive core around Allen as he enters the second half of his career. We have to hope Kincaid is ready to effectively be the WR1. Maybe they are going to try and run the ball a lot more. I don't personally think we have enough talent on the interior to really pull that off consistently but maybe that's the plan. Kind of feels like for the entire season we'll be stuck in the small ball grind it out offense that we displayed in our final game last season. I guess we'll see how it goes...

You didn't answer my questions. Do you believe the Bills can win a Super Bowl while getting shut out in consecutive halfs in their final 2 games? Do you believe we have the caliber of Travis Kelce or Andy Reid in our organization?

You're doing heroic work in this thread Kirby, but as someone that really liked the Coleman pick I have to push back on this. A lot of these Coleman discussions reminds me of the Josh Allen conversation where people posted all sorts of metrics that made it look like it was impossible he would ever turn out to be a good QB. Leading one writer to say the Bills would have to "out smart math itself" for the Josh Allen experiment to work. Take it from me - I was on the wrong side of that conversation and I was embarrassingly vocal about it! Separation matters but it is a means to an end, and that end is leverage. That's a WR's job on every pass play in the NFL. Create leverage to open up a throwing window. Pure separation is not the only way to create leverage. Guys like Brandon Marshall, DeAndre Hopkins, etc. create leverage in other ways. Hopkins had zero separation on the Hail Murrary. As a counterexample, Diggs got separation against a small corner in the Jacksonville game, and when the ball arrived he still managed to lose the leverage battle and let the ball be ripped away as an interception. Leverage is where I think Coleman is going to win at the NFL level. He's going to physically dominate CBs through his route, box them out at the top of his route, and control the catch space in the air. It might not look as nifty as Diggs in his prime leaving Marshon Lattimore grabbing at air, but it's an equally valid means of producing in the NFL, and arguably a more reliable means of producing when you get deep into the playoffs and officials let DBs get away with murder. And of course he has excellent YAC skills which makes the total package a lot more appealing. My other issue with Matt Harmon's method is it is an entirely historical record. But you don't draft players based on history. You draft based on projection. Bringing things full circle to the Josh Allen comparison, that is where everyone missed on him. They didn't correctly plot out his trajectory based on his elite physical traits, his entirely fixable flaws, his hunger to be great, and his alpha mentality on the field. So this time around I'm choosing to be on the other side of the discussion. I believe Coleman also has elite physical traits, fixable flaws, a hunger to be great, and an alpha mentality on the field. I think he's a physical stud that gets to catch passes from another physical stud and I'm just betting that that combination will eventually figure itself out.

Yes! Just ask Chiefs fans. Their WR corps was in fact really bad last year and it directly led to them having the worst passing metrics of Mahomes' career, and having to play on the road in the playoffs for the first time in Mahomes' career. Do you think their bad WR corps was not a problem for the team? Because that defies the entire national conversation around them right up until they won the Super Bowl. The Chiefs were shut out in the 2nd half of the AFCCG and the 1st half of the Super Bowl. Is that what you want us to aspire to? Do you think our McDermott-led defense with Ed Oliver where they have Chris Jones would carry us to a Super Bowl win under those circumstances? By the way the Chiefs had the GOAT pass catching TE in that offense and possibly the GOAT offensive coach calling that offense, and it still was just barely enough to overcome a bad WR room. Do you think we have anything close to that caliber of favorable conditions? This is a lazy talking point and I see it repeated over and over and over again. Our organization is nothing like the Chiefs from top to bottom. The only similarity between us is that we both have freaky QBs that can do things the league's never seen before. We can't build the kind of offense that they have and expect to win, or even participate in, a Super Bowl.

On the field there is no such thing as addition by subtraction. As someone that was happy to trade Diggs and let Davis walk, the team on the field unquestionably became WORSE the moment that they were off the roster. Just because moving on from a player is the right decision, doesn't mean you can leave a blank space next to their position on the roster and expect to improve. That doesn't make any sense at all. As of right now we have a blank space next to outside WR #2. That is undeniable. Why?? He was a UDFA prospect that we took after trading down in the 5th round because our draftable player board was completely wiped out. I will absolutely forget him. He isn't somebody that enters into the conversation at all. He's somebody that if he makes any kind of real impact on the team it will be a huge shock and a wonderful bit of fortune. You might as well mention Bryan Thompson, Tyrell Shavers, etc. What are we doing here?

The Chiefs are a poor example for a myriad of reasons that can be boiled down to two things: 1) Their offense was in fact worse last year, primarily because their WRs mostly stunk. It's like everybody forgot about this because they won the Super Bowl. It was by far their worst offense of the Mahomes era. For the first time they had to play on the road in the playoffs solely because their offense wasn't talented enough. 2) There are a number of factors about their team that allow them to overcome flaws no other franchise can overcome. I'm not going to take time listing all of those factors, they are plainly obvious after a minute of thought. We shouldn't be mimicking the Chiefs strategy. We should be trying to overwhelm them and the rest of the NFL with pure offensive firepower. The first window's strategy didn't work yet the second window is starting off with the same exact strategy. I really don't understand how anybody can point to the unicorn franchise of this generation and act like that means the strategy isn't flawed.

Meh I think it's fair as is. The GMs have access to info that we don't. The league thinks Franklin is not a top 100 prospect for whatever reason. GMs probably know that that's how the league feels about him, unless one team is way outside the consensus. So having the true draft board after the fact equalizes things a bit. Good exercise @Logic. Bump the thread in two years.

I'll just do the first 4 rounds. #33 WR Keon Coleman #60 OT Kingsley Suamataia #95 WR Troy Franklin #128 SAF Jaden Hicks

I appreciate how much the goal posts have changed in this discussion. Before the draft it was "we don't need a WR with our first pick, there will be guys at #60 and in later rounds that will be better value." Instead the next WR taken after our 2nd round pick was taken at #80 (because the 2nd round talents were snatched up much earlier, as easily predicted) and the Bills didn't like any of the other guys enough to take them with our later picks. Then it became "there are still vets in free agency or available for trade!" So much for that, apparently camp bodies is all we can afford. Finally we've made it to "Mack Hollins or Justin Shorter are a better WR5 than people think." The usual suspects that were defending the WR room last year are defending the even worse WR room this year.

It's my own fault. When Beane said they were in the process of signing someone I envisioned DJ Chark or something along those lines, not an above average WR by any means but a baseline outside WR that at least gives us better pass catching ability than Mack Hollins. I should have known better.

They're just easy to find. Look at the free agent market this year. It was littered with solid safeties. Justin Simmons is still available. In McDermott's system he hasn't needed safeties with excellent athletic traits. Hyde and Poyer were 5th and 7th rounders respectively and were great in our system primarily because of their football intelligence. And in this draft in particular, picking a safety early was not where the value was. After we picked Bishop 10 of the next 20 picks were OL. That's where the league told us the value was at that spot in the draft, which was a common thought amongst draftniks before the draft too. We waited until the 5th round to dip into a particularly deep OL class, instead choosing to take positions that were considered weak in the draft in the 2nd and 3rd and 4th rounds. It was bad value management by Beane IMO.

Keon Coleman name dropped Hamler in his first interview after getting drafted. Said something like "fit in with KJ Hamler and those other guys up there." I thought that was interesting at least. Did someone on the Bills clue him in that Hamler was going to have a bigger role on the team than anybody has thought? Or did he just see his name on the roster and assume? If Hamler is fully healthy he has legit field stretching ability. Feels like quite a long shot to bet on though.

Sure it will. When Diggs was in his prime in 2022 and the first half of 2023 we were still missing a true WR2. Even in a best case scenario for Coleman's career I don't expect him to be close to as good as Diggs in his prime right away, nor is it fair to expect that. But even if he immediately pans out to his potential, the #2 outside WR is still a gaping hole on the roster. So realistically we very likely got worse at WR1 and WR2 even in a best case scenario.

Oh my God. It's really going to happen. Mack Hollins is going to be our primary #2 outside WR. That is actually the plan.

They're nothing alike as prospects. The frame, the play strength, the hands, the YAC, the contested catch ability, the routes they run, pretty much any trait you want to pick you will not find much if any similarity. There are valid concerns about Coleman as a prospect, but he was considered a late 1st/early 2nd round prospect for a reason, just like Gabe Davis was considered a 4th round prospect for a reason. Also if you wanted the Bills to draft a WR high, they did that. I'll use myself as an example - I did not favor McConkey as our first pick, but I still would have been pleased if he was the pick because from a high level overview of team building it would have made sense. And then I would have watched to see how he developed as a player. I learned the hard way with my incessant negative posting about Josh Allen before and after we picked him that you can't marry yourself to one or two specific player outcomes. As strongly as you feel about Coleman, you don't really know how the player is going to turn out. You're just setting yourself up to look really dumb if he turns into an elite player. Again, using myself as an example - I still get occasional reactions on my (stupid) post in the original Josh Allen thread after he was drafted. I married myself to one or two specific player outcomes and thankfully I was an idiot to do so. Be happy the Bills at least used one of their top 150 picks on a player that made a lot sense based on the overall value and current roster state of the position. Personally I love him as a prospect but my personal evaluation is less important than the overall strategy that we executed with that pick. Contrarily I like Bishop as a prospect but hate that we drafted him when we did. As amateurs that just evaluate prospects for fun that is a more objective way to grade a pick immediately after it's made. It also doesn't help that your evaluation features a poor player comp that doesn't match up with pretty much anybody that has studied these players. Player comps are fun but they have very limited value in reality.

Wouldn't call Coleman a possession WR. He doesn't go down on first contact after the catch. He's got Deebo qualities with the ball in his hands. He offers more of a total package than Benjamin, Funchess, or the other comparison I've seen thrown around Mike Williams.

It isn't just his words. It's his actions more than anything. Trading down whenever possible. Trading a pick this year for a pick next year. Cutting a bunch of veterans. Trading Diggs for a future pick and taking on a larger cap hit this year. When he says it's a "transition year" it's pretty easy to read into what that means. By the way I have zero issue with the moves we made to trim the fat and prepare the team for the 2nd window of Allen's career. All of that I thought was necessary, and I appreciate that Beane didn't half ass it. My issue is that in a rebuild year his draft picks mostly represented short term thinking. A safety, a backup DT, and a backup RB end up being the middle of our draft. None of those picks are going to be difference makers in 2025, I'm sorry they just won't be. Carter is the only one that has a snowball's chance in hell. But they're all great guys with great back stories and they fill immediate needs, so Beane did the usual thing and stayed in his comfort zone. Just once I would love for these guys to go outside their comfort zone. Instead of taking the team captain with a high motor (but no athletic upside for the motor to unlock), take the physical specimen that shows up late to meetings and talks back to his coaches. Instead of taking a safety or a low upside pass rusher in the 2nd round because they think he can start from day one, take a guy that is all boom or bust. Really go for it. They haven't half assed the tear down but they're half assing the rebuild, and you can already sense the excuses and low expectations they are trying to set ahead of time.

It's certainly possible, I'm not going to discount that. It would take Allen having the best season of his career, Kincaid and/or Shakir really stepping up, and Coleman becoming a 1,000 yard caliber WR by midseason. If all of that happens we can possibly overcome the defense inevitably taking a step back and putting on a disappointing performance in the divisional round. It sure seems much less likely than it did at the same time last year though. And I have very little confidence that the draft class this year is going to be littered with true game changers which is really what we needed if the plan was to have a championship ready team in 2025.

It turns out Beane hasn't learned anything from his mistakes. After failing to sign Hopkins and watching the Davis/Sherfield experiment fail, I really thought he would learn. Instead he admitted publicly that at certain spots in the draft he chose to pick other "needs" instead of good WRs still on the board. And apparently to him those needs were safety, backup DT, and backup RB. It's unbelievable. These guys are shortening and hamstringing Allen's career.

Beane has shown he can execute a tear down. He's done it twice now. Can he execute a rebuild? That remains to be seen. The first attempt failed. Now we're giving him chance #2 and the same head coach is along for the ride. And the first draft of his second rebuild was filled with poor strategic picks IMO.