HappyDays

I'll need to see it to believe it. Since Brady took over Shakir has averaged 3.9 targets per game including both playoff games last season. Before checking I would have said 4 targets per game is ideal for his skill set so I'm in lock step with Brady. That would be 68 targets on the year. We know he has elite efficiency with that sort of medium volume. I don't see a skill set that asks for high volume, I see a skill set that can maximize opportunities. The reason Allen had to spread the ball around, and will continue to do so, is because we don't have a focal point target. That includes Shakir. Most offenses around the league, you can point to their #1 guy. In fact most you can point to their #2 as well. Our offense does not appear to have a #1 or #2. It really is going to be about relatively equal distribution. My positive takeaway from Sunday is maybe that can work better than I thought.

Unfortunately though it is not just this year. He struggled quite a bit down the stretch last year too. In fact I made a thread right at the end of the regular season wondering if the Bills should consider benching him for David Edwards. To Torrence's credit he was mostly invisible in the playoffs, in a good way, but now those issues have creeped back up in preseason and against Arizona. It has nothing to do with the players next to him, he just has one fatal flaw that every single DL out there is going to be aware of and they are going to exploit it until he personally makes them stop. That being said I don't support benching him unless it starts to get so bad that it actively puts Josh's health in danger. I still consider this a rebuild season and I would rather give snaps to the young player that we drafted because of his physical gifts, versus playing it safe with a replacement level player. I reserve the right to change this opinion if we get into November and we clearly are a championship contender and Torrence clearly is a weak link. Until then, let him develop and see what happens.

That's a couple steps too far for me. Rice proved you can make him a staple of your offense and he will go off to the tune of 100+ yards. Shakir picked up where he left off last year, as a low volume but extremely high efficiency target. He's a very valuable role player, nothing more nothing less. And that's not a criticism of him at all. Great offenses need great complementary pieces. And that's my takeaway from the entire receiving corps in this game, having also watched the offense back on the all-22. It is all complementary pieces and role players. The best thing you can say about the group in this game is they made no mistakes. There were no egregious missed blocks that I saw, no dropped passes, no miscommunications. And there were a couple outstanding plays mixed in from Coleman and Shakir. I've softened just a bit on my stance from the offseason. If every single role player actually plays their role effectively with no mistakes, maybe that is enough with a unicorn QB distributing the ball. Make no mistake - the 34 points is still a product of Allen more than everything else combined. But I am satisfied that none of his weapons actively inhibited the offense like we've seen way too many times from certain players over the years. I will also give some credit to Brady here. I said after the game that his offensive coaching is serviceable but unspectacular, and I stand by that description, but the one thing he has done since taking over is he has raised the floor of the offense by eliminating the serious mistakes. There were zero plays on Sunday where the ball was put in harm's way, not counting Allen's fumble which was entirely his own fault and had nothing to do with play design. Allen had a big turnover problem under Dorsey. At the time I said that Dorsey in many cases fed Allen's worst instincts and was at least somewhat responsible for the turnover frequency, and I feel vindicated in that belief after seeing Brady take over and immediately remove that boom or bust nature of our offense. I'm very intrigued to see where it goes from here. It feels unfair and wet blanket-y to say "well let's see what happens against better defenses" so for now I'll just enjoy the slight boost in optimism that maybe we really can make this band of 3rd/4th tier players function at an elite level.

That's not exactly true, Spotrac is not accounting for his option bonuses. According to OTC he will have a $16.6M dead cap charge if we cut him in 2026. Presumably we have some kind of built-in option or restructure to massage that year's $19.5M cap hit down though, I'd be surprised if that cap charge actually ever shows up on the books.

I've been waiting all of Josh's career for him to have a WR that he can just chuck the ball to downfield in single coverage and expect him to come down with it more often than not. I never understood the criticism of the pick that said "Allen likes seeing separation before throwing the ball." I don't know where that narrative came from. Allen has always been a gunslinger that will give his guy a chance... He just hasn't ever had anybody worth giving that kind of chance too. Coleman in one game proved he can make those kinds of plays and Allen will trust him more and more as he continues to prove himself. What really impressed me about the catch is the CB didn't play it poorly. He appropriately attempted to use the sideline as an extra defender. Coleman just didn't let him get away with it. Held his ground, boxed him out, stayed inbounds, and came down with an effortless catch.

They/Over the Cap were not wrong. $19M is what's FULLY guaranteed. Ian Rapaport is copy pasting what the agent sent him which is including other guarantees later in the contract, including a $16M option bonus owed in March 2025 and injury guarantees that don't kick in until future years. This is how Spotrac is describing it:

This is something for Brady to improve on moving forward: It could also be partly to set up defenses for later in the season though. I don't discount that strategic angle.

Gilliam actually has like four jobs on the roster, which is why he is a perennial roster lock. People that dislike overinvesting in special teams should like that he's on the roster because he prevents us from having to keep even MORE special teams players.

Well let's not be crazy here. He is a lot better than replacement level. Especially in the run game we ask him to do certain things that are only possible because of his rare athleticism. I still am not a fan of the deal but I acknowledge he is a good player and would have gotten a similar or more expensive contract on the open market.

Spotrac's breakdown is significantly different. They are saying we can get out of it in 2026 with just a $3.8M dead cap hit. OTC says we would have a $16.6M dead cap hit. I'm going to assume OTC is correct because I doubt Spencer Brown signs Spotrac's version.

Bills 27 Dolphins 26 I'm totally on the fence about this one and when I'm on the fence I default to picking the Bills. Biggest thing that gives me hope is I think we outmatch them by a mile in the trenches on both sides of the ball. But I'm not going to sit here and pretend I'm comfortable about all their speed on offense matched up against our LBs and safeties who appear to be a tick slow to process. Hopefully Allen's left hand is okay and doesn't bother him too much. I suspect he has a broken bone and the team is intentionally keeping it under wraps (no pun intended).

Contract details are in: Pretty low guaranteed number. That 2026 cap hit looms large though so hopefully there is some kind of restructure built in to stretch that out in future years.

If it helps people to understand the skepticism of Joe Brady, note that the competition is Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid. That's who we're up against trying to win a championship. I know the response will be that that is who everybody else has to compete with too, but that is the reality. And Joe Brady is not at that level. His offense never makes you say "Wow I haven't seen that before." "Wow our offense looks like it's playing in a totally different gear." "Wow these guys are wide open on every play." Like I said after the game his offensive coaching is perfectly fine. He knows the strengths of his players and uses them accordingly. He doesn't actively hurt the team. By the standards of his peers it is serviceable offensive coaching with a QB that can at times make serviceable look amazing. Outside of Allen you could describe the entire offense as serviceable, coaching and talent both. The question is if there is enough at either level to keep up with the true elites that are currently dominating the league.

I don't necessarily mind the run heavy game plan. Run defense was known to be Arizona's weakness coming into the game. I have no issue trying to enforce your will on the ground. But the point of doing that is to punish them when they finally go all out to stop the run. They started run blitzing us to death and we didn't adjust or make them pay. Felt like we had some good opportunities to mix in PA or screens and we just didn't...

😬

I saw the snap counts. Ray Davis only got 6 snaps while Ty Johnson got 14 snaps. That needs to flip starting this week. Davis looked good on all his opportunities.

You know Shaw, this is a fair point and does give a different perspective on the game. As frustrated as I was through much of it, the narrative ultimately should have been that the Bills sleepwalked against an inferior opponent for 25 minutes before turning it on and coming away with a two score victory. That looks a lot better than the current narrative which is that the Bills are lucky to have won by the skin of their teeth. Special teams TDs are one of those flukey things that can completely swing games and cause people to misinterpret the final result. They say week 1 lies and I feel that this will probably be even more true for the Bills than for other teams. For one thing, I would wager that several of our starters on defense today will not be starters by the end of the season. We have essentially two new coordinators. It's going to take several games at least before the offense figures out who its best skill players are. Over the past few years the Bills have been well established even entering week 1 and it was a matter of just stacking wins using our proven formula. This year it will be about tinkering and learning what our best formula is over time and hopefully having all of the right ingredients in place by December.

As others have pointed out, the issue is that Josh Allen had to take a lot of physical punishment today, just to beat a below average team with a bad defense. If he doesn't put his body on the line today (which literally caused an injury, the severity of which is still unknown) we would have lost. I guess this year they aren't putting the leash on him early in the season like they have in previous years. He has free reign to run around and take hits, because they know it's the only way this team can move the ball and score enough points to cover up our numerous deficiencies in all three phases. We don't have any pass catcher that can just go out and beat their man 1v1 with any kind of consistency. So it falls on Josh, like it always does but even moreso than usual. So yeah we should care that we don't have anyone on offense capable of taking the load off of his shoulders. But hey for today at least the pass catchers all played their respective roles and did enough to get the job done. It is encouraging that the group wasn't a total trainwreck. Still there are concerning signs that I'm not going to ignore because we scored 34 points.

Yes I said in the live game thread he proved me wrong and made several great plays today. I suspect Taron will miss some time but after Lewis' performance today I'm not as concerned as I would have thought.

Yeah the commentators didn't analyze that play properly. He saw Budda with leverage towards Samuel and wanted no part of that throw. I don't have an issue with the turndown. I have an issue that his inner clock didn't tell him it was time to get out of there or get rid of the ball. But whatever, it's the first offensive drive of week 1.

Absolutely hilarious watching Baker Mayfield completely turn his career around while his replacement the massage weirdo plays at barely backup level.

I'm concerned about the offense because I'm concerned about the defense. It's what I've been saying all year. As a team we are going to have very little margin for error and much like today we are probably going to be drawn into a lot of quasi-shootouts. To win shootouts consistently you need a dominant offense. Solid first game but I didn't see anything that makes me think we have enough playmakers on offense to dominate like that. Of course when Allen puts the team on his back as much as he did today we are still going to score points.

Laughed out loud watching that one on RedZone. How do you not even give your receiver a chance? Just ate the sack. I guess he gets his $200 million from Jimmy Haslam either way.

The Chargers predictably marched down the field with zero resistance and scored a TD.

We have an offense full of role players but nobody that can take over games or command extra attention. That's what I thought they were all offseason and that's what they were today.