HappyDays

Sorry that you haven't seen that stat before. The reason it's measured is that (and this goes without saying) QBs are less efficient when throwing the ball beyond their first read. Some are affected more than others of course. For example it's been a known weakness in Tua's game that his efficiency drops off a cliff when forced past his first read. For that reason it's notable that the Bills are the NFL's most efficient offense while being dead last in first read percentage. https://www.fantasypoints.com/nfl/articles/2023/first-read-targets-and-fantasy-football#/ As a point of reference, the difference between 7.9 YPA and 6.9 YPA was the difference between the 5th best QB and the 20th best QB last year. This is what the article concludes after some statistical analysis: I don't mean to use this stat to criticize. I commend Josh, Brady, and the OL for making this sort of inherently less efficient style the most efficient offense in the NFL. I credit the pass catchers for executing on the plays that go to them. But there is an implication here that we are not throwing to the first read a lot because of skill position talent deficiency.

There are two conversations here. The first is about Diggs the person. I advocated for moving on from him well before the Bills actually did. I got sick of his act and how he was clearly affecting the chemistry of the team. This year Josh clearly looks a lot more comfortable and a lot more free on the field. I can't say there's a 100% correlation there, but definitely there is some kind of correlation. Getting Diggs out of this locker room and out of Josh's head has been a clear improvement. The second conversation is about Diggs the WR. This is where you lose me. There is a pervasive belief on here that every #1 WR is a locker room problem and/or a ball hog. I don't agree with that at all. I've even see people say that about DeAndre Hopkins in the thread about him. Maybe I missed something but when has Hopkins ever been a locker room problem? I don't want a WR that needs to be fed the ball 170 times a season, but it's sure nice to have one that has the ability to take over games when you need somebody to. So far no one other than Josh has needed to take over a game. If or when that is needed, there is reason to doubt that the current personnel can step up to the task. But like I've said that isn't a problem until it becomes one. Maybe we'll keep threading that needle all the way to the Super Bowl. I certainly have more optimism about that possibility now than I ever thought I would.

You know I love Coleman but yeah that TD was more about the scheme and the blocking than his individual play. Deep mesh against a blitz in single high safety is a no-win scenario for the defense unless the blitz gets home. The concept is that at the mesh point the CBs in trail coverage will get thrown off their line of direction just a tick which might as well be an eternity on an NFL field. The route combination created the separation. Hilariously the single high safety didn't even commit to one of the mesh routes, he just hung out alone in the deep middle. It wouldn't have mattered if he did. The defense would have been wrong either way. James Cook is the unsung hero of the play standing up his blitzer and giving Josh enough time to get the pass off. This play is actually a perfect example of what we're saying - the scheme and Josh's throw and the pass protection make the play work more than the WR's individual talent makes the play work.

I didn't say the players are producing as I expected. Production as you note is volatile and highly context driven especially with such a small sample size. I said they are all performing the role that I expected. You're conflating offensive performance with WR performance. As I've admitted quite a few times I was wrong to believe that the offense couldn't perform at a top level with middling WR talent. I was skeptical that Brady could make it work. I was wrong. He is taking WRs with somewhat limited skill sets and he is putting them in positions where those skill sets shine. Also just keep in mind this conversation is relative to the entire NFL. I am not saying the WRs we have are untalented. Nobody that makes an NFL roster and gets on the field is untalented. We are looking at it within the scope of the entire league. Mack Hollins and Keon Coleman would never be on the field together for like 90% of offenses out there because there would be other players above them on the depth chart. The impressive thing is that Brady has found a way to put them on the field and draw up plays that work for their skill set.

This is an underrated talking point and should be brought up more. The best thing the Bills offense is doing is limiting mistakes. I would consider big mistakes as turnovers, drops, and offensive linemen getting beaten off the snap. We had Allen's fumble on the very first drive of the season. Other than that I can't remember a single play that I would consider a big mistake. We knew coming into the season the Bills offense would be predicated on executing on relatively long drives, and an offense like that has to avoid mistakes more than anything. I give Brady credit for this maybe more than anything else. Limiting mistake-prone plays was the best thing he did when he took over last year and it's only gotten better. In this respect, losing Gabe Davis really was addition by subtraction.

"Bad" isn't the right word. I would say they're doing fine. Nobody can come in here and post 30 all-22 clips showing that the WRs aren't really playing above the scheme (the notable exception being Shakir after the catch). Here's a stat that I think at least implies that notion though: So Allen is dead last in the NFL at throwing to his first read, only 55.6% of the time. It's an interesting stat that can probably be interpreted in a few different ways. What it tells me is that our WRs are not getting quick separation. Allen is having to move on but luckily he has been going though progressions at an elite level, the OL is holding up long enough for him to do that, and Brady's schemed route combinations are working well enough that somebody is eventually coming open along the natural progression. It's unicorn caliber that we're the NFL's most efficient offense while going to our 1st read barely half the time. That sort of thing just doesn't happen, but Allen and Brady are finding a way, and the WRs are executing just enough to make it work. I know you don't believe those of us who say the WRs are meeting our offseason expectations, but it really is the case. I expected Shakir to have 4-5 targets per game and have elite YAC production. I expected Hollins to be mostly a blocking WR. I expected MVS to replicate his role with the Chiefs. I expected Coleman to be brought along slowly and only contribute here and there. Shakir I'll say has moderately exceeded my expectations only because a 100% catch rate is ridiculous and I have to give him some flowers for that. Samuel on the other hand has moderately fallen short of my expectations. So across the board I would say the room as a whole has met my expectations. What has really exceeded my expectations so far are Josh Allen (improbably), the pass protection, and most of all Joe Brady. Those specific ingredients have been so good that they are masking the deficiencies. I'm not going to hedge myself and predict that the offense will fall off. I am flat out very impressed by the whole operation and I see signs that it is in fact sustainable and is in fact championship caliber. Still I stand by my view that the WR room specifically is below average relative to the rest of the league.

I mean it isn't just what my eyes are telling me. That chart I posted says he is winning on pass rushes at a below league average rate despite getting bottom of the league double team rates. If you want to claim the chart is wrong, or that we have the only defensive scheme that asks our 3T to play patty cake in his gap more than we ask him to try and rush the passer, go for it. And for what it's worth I'm not an Ed Oliver hater. My own eyes tell me he has been quite good as a run stopper this season (I don't have a chart for that one). I also thought he was quite good overall last year in both areas and exceeded my expectations. As a pass rusher this season though I have been underwhelmed especially relative to the size of his paycheck.

ARSB just signed a $120M contract, $30M AAV. Shakir is not going to come close to that. ARSB is coming off a 1,500 yard season. If Shakir makes it to 1,000 yards it will be considered a very successful season. I don't mean to be a wet blanket about Shakir. I really do love his skill set and his fit with Josh Allen. I just don't make him out to be anything more than he is. I appreciate that Brady is not making the same mistake we made with Gabe Davis where we took a role player and tried to make him a focal point. Shakir is an excellent role player and we are using him as such. Why can't that be enough?

I don't think they're similar at all. ARSB is a pure route runner and separator. Shakir is best when he's schemed open and delivered the ball with space to run. ARSB is on an island in the top right near some of the very best WRs in football. Shakir is right at the intersection of the two dotted lines indicating league average efficiency.

I think you are actually underselling Joe Brady with this comment. You have the relationship backwards. You say the scheme requires the WRs to block and have good RAC skills, whereas I say Joe Brady has taken the skill sets of his WRs and built the scheme around them. If he had two elite outside WRs the scheme would look totally different. That is a credit to Brady. By leaning on his players strengths he is minimizing their weaknesses. Every person on the offense is being asked to do only what they can do well. That's a tough needle to thread when you have middling talent in the room but Brady is threading it.

Cam Newton's MVP season in 2015, his top WRs were Ted Ginn, Jericho Cotchery, and Devin Funchess. His team went 15-1 and got to the Super Bowl. All of this was accomplished in spite of his WRs, yes? WR is definitely a weakness, but it's not a problem until it becomes one. That's where we're at.

Kind of a shocking mistake. Daboll and Schoen came from a franchise that deliberately took a step back after making the playoffs with a bridge QB. They took all the good will they'd built up with that fanbase and threw it away.

Ed Oliver has been invisible to my eye, and interior pressure on the QB has been a noticeable weakness. Well, I don't have my pitchfork out. Just want to see more from him, that's all. He's getting paid a lot of money. Would you say you've noticed him making an impact outside of one big play against the Dolphins?

I would think Daquan Jones is the one protecting the middle of the field. He's the one taking on all of the double teams and he's still managing to exceed Oliver's pass rush win rate. I know the past couple years Oliver's pass rush win rate has been very high but so far this year it's just not been good. And that stat matches the eye test for me. I'm seeing him get swallowed up most of the time. I see our pass rush win on the edges a lot but very infrequently up the middle unless it's on the rare LB blitz or something like that. Hopefully he steps up his game because it's really the only noticeable weakness on our defense so far.

Yes I've been saying this for years! I've hated those option routes since Daboll. I get the concept behind them - if Josh and his WR read the leverage the same way, the throw is always right. The problem has been when they don't read it the same way it becomes a dangerous throw that's likely to be intercepted. Last year in particular there were a number of these passes intended for Gabe Davis and seemingly they ALWAYS read the play differently. Arguably it lost us the Eagles game and it resulted in several turnovers. I never cared who was at fault, ultimately it was just not a smart play concept and Dorsey stubbornly continuted to call them. The best thing Brady has done since taking over is removing mistake-prone tendencies from our offense. Josh is clearly responding well to the new concepts and as a result he is having the cleanest stretch of play that he's ever had.

Wasn't sure where to put this, but we need more from Ed Oliver: He's getting doubled less than any DT in the league right now but he's winning his pass rush reps at a below average rate. Even Tim Settle has a higher win rate. I know he made a couple big plays against Miami but otherwise he has been kind of invisible to my eye.

If you bet divisional road favorites you deserve what you get.

EPA per target is arguably a more relevant efficiency metric than yards per target (because for example a 9 yard screen pass that turns into a TD is more valuable than a 12 yard gain on 3rd and 15, and only EPA per target would capture this), and Shakir is currently leading the NFL in EPA per target according to this article: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5785494/2024/09/26/nfl-week-4-picks-predictions-betting-jayden-daniels?source=user-shared-article

Maybe, I haven't watched enough of the film specifically to say you're wrong. All I know is he isn't making plays in those situations. He's making plays when he gets a free release and the ball is delivered to him with space to work with. I absolutely love his skill set and think he's a perfect complementary piece. I just don't agree with Matt Harmon that he's the "perfect WR for the modern NFL." The perfect WR is Justin Jefferson who's currently taking 20% of his snaps out of the slot and single handedly giving Sam Darnold's career a shot in the arm. Shakir would be a great piece on any offense but he is never going to be a focal point that you can run the offense though IMO. I will say that Shakir is the perfect slot WR for this current Bills offense. Most of Josh's career he had to make every yard happen on his own. Being able to throw a shallow drag route at the opponent's 25 yard line that ultimately becomes a TD is incredibly valuable and I don't take it for granted.

That wasn't versus Sauce Gardner though. Sauce tried to get involved in the play at the last second because he realized what was about to happen, but Shakir did not outright beat him on that play. And Shakir was in the slot on that play:

I know PFF tracks stuff like this, I don't have access to it but I'd be surprised if it's true that he's getting successful targets against press coverage outside. I mean he only has 14 targets on the year so very small sample size but I don't see him as an inside/outside versatility guy at all. He's an elite efficiency and elite YAC receiver when you get him favorable coverage looks which primarily happens inside. I don't want us to try and make him anything more than that.

Love Shakir. But I don't understand what Matt Harmon is talking about. Shakir has taken 75% of his snaps from the slot this year. That isn't inside/outside versatility.

He's been working back from an MCL sprain. 27% of snaps in W1, only 44% and 46% in W2 and W3 respectively. This past week he parlayed that relatively low snap share into 6 catches on 7 targets for 73 yards and 1 TD. That blows our outside WR production so far out of the water.

4th quarter, 2 minutes to go, we're down by 6, in the AFCCG against the Chiefs. Everyone in the stadium knows we have to pass the ball and their defensive formation is daring us to beat them outside. Does anybody really trust Hollins, Coleman, or MVS in that situation right now? So yes give me a guy that's proven time and time again he makes big plays in those critical moments of close games. Trading for Hopkins is an ideal move to get us over the hump.

@Mikey152 was saying Curtis Samuel will replace Stefon Diggs production in this offense. I remember him extrapolating Samuel's yards per target to mean that he could rack up 1,400 yards in this offense. (Sorry for the call out Mikey, feel free to call me out for the fact that I didn't know if the Bills offense could be a top 10 scoring offense with this receiving group.) Every WR right now is meeting the expectation I had. The sole exception is Samuel who is coming in well below my expectation. The surprise of the season is not that the Bills WRs are performing above their weight class, but that the offense as a whole is efficient as can be despite having such middling WR production. To me the three biggest reasons for that in order are Josh Allen taking his game to another level, the OL being stellar in pass protection, and Joe Brady leaning on his players' strengths and actually gameplanning for his opponents. The WR room is definitely still a weakness overall. But I can't say it's an insurmountable problem until it becomes one on the scoreboard.