HappyDays

Honestly why not both? Metcalf as the long term extension with an artificially low 2025 cap hit, Adams as the more expensive in 2025 one year stopgap for the #2 role while we wait to see how Coleman develops. Get the WR room set and then go all in on rebuilding the defense in the draft. In Metcalf we're talking about a perennial 1,000 yard WR who has also produced at a high level in the playoffs. If that's overrated what does that say about our current WR room?

It's impossible to overstate how perfect the fit is. We need an outside WR. We need to improve our vertical passing game. We need more top tier talent in general. Metcalf fills all of these needs in one shot. Adding him is like fitting a square peg into a square hole. I really hope we make it happen.

When I heard the news I didn't need to use my hand

True story - I was told this was coming 30 minutes ago and was frantically refreshing Adam Schefter's page.

Major update:

He is good friends with Allen so I could see this being a real possibility. The one thing that gives me pause is he was in the slot 76% of snaps last year. But he has played outside before so if we bring him as our Z receiver I think that could work.

I was just coming here to say I heard the details posted by Spotrac aren't exactly right. There's about $7M in incentives missing and the dead cap hits are wrong. But the posted cap hits are apparently correct and will only change depending on if the incentives are hit. So it's still team friendly. We can get out of it in 2028 with around an $8.2M dead cap hit if we need to.

Spotrac is saying there would only be a $4.2M dead cap hit if cut in 2027. That seems almost too good to be true. If this is accurate it's a tremendously team friendly deal.

This idea is getting a bit overstated. Running the ball has become easier since defenses have adjusted to stop the bombs away air shows that teams like the Bills and Chiefs were showing in 2020. But you still need a balanced offense led by a strong passing game, not a "run first" offense. Barkley himself is evidence of this - he went from playing with Daniel Jones and a cast of JAGs to playing with a good QB and an elite OL and an elite WR duo. Only then did he start producing at his current level. The passing offense still has to lead the way and the market is reflecting this. Barkley's historic market-resetting AAV would rank just 18th among WRs. He falls just below the likes of Terry McLaurin and Calvin Ridley whose contracts are already obsolete. The league hasn't flipped on its head.

Wow okay I did not realize that. That's just what one of his scouting reports said. I'd be comfortable with him as the pick.

His scouting report reminds me of Tre White's coming out. Positives: Long arms, good footwork, good route anticipation. Negatives: average speed, can get beat vertically, not a particularly willing tackler. So we know that player profile can work very well in this defense.

We need a separator outside as well as a vertical threat. Adams fills the first need.

Hopefully we can pay him enough to change his thinking.

In the regular season, yes. I have said the biggest positive of trading for Garrett is it improves our chances of getting the #1 seed. In the AFCCG though that wasn't the problem. The problem was Mahomes and Reid doing what they always do against McDermott's defense which is to effortlessly pick us apart. Ball out in 2 seconds or less. Our contain rush sucked, our coverage sucked, our coaching sucked. For me I want any big move the Bills make this offseason to be about maximizing their chances to finally overcome KC. That is where I become less enthused about giving up a bunch of draft capital and cap space for Garrett. I recognize his talent and his value, it's just not what I think is going to get us past the boogeyman.

Yeah we were up there when White, Hyde, Poyer, Taron, and Milano were all on the team and in their primes... Elite coverage has always been the best avenue to success in McDermott's defense. His defense wants QBs to get the ball out quickly to a player that will be tackled right away. He wants the opposing offense to run the ball. Our defensive philosophy and play calling the past two years, especially this past season, have been different out of necessity not out of desire. The secondary needs to be the foundation of the rebuild on that side of the ball, not the DL. So this is why I keep saying we are not one player away from having an elite defense. Benford is a great CB1 albeit less great than White in his prime. We have no CB2 on the roster. Both safety spots are up in the air. Milano isn't reliable. Taron took a step back last year, although he's still a good player of course. So all the positions that made us a top 3 defense a few years ago are now less than. Adding Garrett absolutely makes us a better defense but it doesn't erase all of the problems that made us a below average defense last year. I think Bills fans have built up this fantasy that one elite pass rusher will make the difference the next time we face KC in the playoffs. This was exacerbated by the Philly Super Bowl win. The ironic thing about that is that Philly did not dominate because of one elite pass rusher. They had waves of good to great pass rushers that were acquired over a period of several seasons, supported by an elite secondary. My take is that everyone is taking the wrong lesson from that defensive performance, while simultaneously ignoring the fact that Philly's elite WR duo also helped them build an insurmountable lead.

That would be a big leap. We ranked 12th and 30th respectively in opponent PPG and 3rd down percentage last year. Personally I'm not convinced we're one player away - even the best defender in the NFL - from being a top 5 defense. Adding Metcalf puts us in real contention to be the very best offense in the NFL especially if we could bring him in while adding one more good WR and convincing Cook to come back one more year. That could be the caliber of offense that makes defense practically irrelevant. Just make some baseline improvements on that side of the ball with the goal of making it average. Historic offense with an average defense is a legit championship contender.

Come on man you know that's not how AAVs work. Or do you think Shakir will actually count $15M against the cap next year? The common refrain is that the salary cap is a myth. Maybe that should be rephrased to say contracts are a myth. The money is real, the accounting is made up. Metcalf is EASILY affordable for this franchise. We'll have no top tier contracts on the books other than our QB and our RT (and even that isn't the top of the top tier). All the moves they made last offseason were about setting themselves up for a splash move this year. It's time. They need to add another top tier player capable of pushing this roster over the edge.

I agree which is why I'm hoping he gets drafted sooner. A 1T in the 1st round would be extremely underwhelming.

Would it surprise you to know we had an equal or better pass rush than Philly last year? 39 sacks to their 41, 151 pressures to their 111. The Super Bowl performance is skewing the perception on them. Equally important to their DL was that their secondary made Mahomes hold the ball a full second longer than we did, with Slay of course being an important contributor in that area.

I don't love that he'll be 33 when the season starts. His production has declined a ton over the past two seasons. If we still need some kind of downfield WR then sure give him a low cost one year deal but that would be as a last resort after exhausting all other options.

This is the most obvious solution for us on the market. Fills a need so we're not desperate heading into the draft.

Tell me more about this unknown team...

Safety is a position where I really don't care all that much about top tier athletic traits. In the modern NFL and especially in McDermott's defense it is more a cerebral position. This is why I also didn't like the Bishop pick last year. These weaknesses from Lance Zierlein's scouting report on Emmanwori scare me away: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/nick-emmanwori/3200454d-4d08-3509-4f43-ab1aefccbd0f The last two bullet points especially are concerning. Sounds like a classic case of an athlete trying to play football and I have no interest in using a 1st rounder on that archetype at a non-premium position.

@Pine Barrens Mafia could finally pass on to the other side.

The reason I wouldn't want to do that is it would severely weaken an already weak DT group. And then we'd enter the draft needing to take a DT and Beane has not done a good job when he's boxed himself in with that 1st pick. I also don't think Seattle would be interested because it's a strong DT draft class and if they're shipping out Metcalf it's to save money. You already know what I would do this offseason - I'd trade our 1st for Metcalf and pay him what he's worth, then I'd sign Davante Adams to a 2 year deal when he is inevitably cut. Our WR corps for the next two years would be: Metcalf Adams Shakir Coleman Samuel (possibly replaced in 2026) I'd use void years and restructures to go all in on the Josh Allen light show which to me is still the most likely Super Bowl strategy. I'd do all this while trading Cook this offseason and knowing in the back of my mind that Rousseau would walk after this year. And then Beane and McDermott can spend all their remaining draft picks on defense like their little hearts desire.