HappyDays

We need a separator outside as well as a vertical threat. Adams fills the first need.

Hopefully we can pay him enough to change his thinking.

In the regular season, yes. I have said the biggest positive of trading for Garrett is it improves our chances of getting the #1 seed. In the AFCCG though that wasn't the problem. The problem was Mahomes and Reid doing what they always do against McDermott's defense which is to effortlessly pick us apart. Ball out in 2 seconds or less. Our contain rush sucked, our coverage sucked, our coaching sucked. For me I want any big move the Bills make this offseason to be about maximizing their chances to finally overcome KC. That is where I become less enthused about giving up a bunch of draft capital and cap space for Garrett. I recognize his talent and his value, it's just not what I think is going to get us past the boogeyman.

Yeah we were up there when White, Hyde, Poyer, Taron, and Milano were all on the team and in their primes... Elite coverage has always been the best avenue to success in McDermott's defense. His defense wants QBs to get the ball out quickly to a player that will be tackled right away. He wants the opposing offense to run the ball. Our defensive philosophy and play calling the past two years, especially this past season, have been different out of necessity not out of desire. The secondary needs to be the foundation of the rebuild on that side of the ball, not the DL. So this is why I keep saying we are not one player away from having an elite defense. Benford is a great CB1 albeit less great than White in his prime. We have no CB2 on the roster. Both safety spots are up in the air. Milano isn't reliable. Taron took a step back last year, although he's still a good player of course. So all the positions that made us a top 3 defense a few years ago are now less than. Adding Garrett absolutely makes us a better defense but it doesn't erase all of the problems that made us a below average defense last year. I think Bills fans have built up this fantasy that one elite pass rusher will make the difference the next time we face KC in the playoffs. This was exacerbated by the Philly Super Bowl win. The ironic thing about that is that Philly did not dominate because of one elite pass rusher. They had waves of good to great pass rushers that were acquired over a period of several seasons, supported by an elite secondary. My take is that everyone is taking the wrong lesson from that defensive performance, while simultaneously ignoring the fact that Philly's elite WR duo also helped them build an insurmountable lead.

That would be a big leap. We ranked 12th and 30th respectively in opponent PPG and 3rd down percentage last year. Personally I'm not convinced we're one player away - even the best defender in the NFL - from being a top 5 defense. Adding Metcalf puts us in real contention to be the very best offense in the NFL especially if we could bring him in while adding one more good WR and convincing Cook to come back one more year. That could be the caliber of offense that makes defense practically irrelevant. Just make some baseline improvements on that side of the ball with the goal of making it average. Historic offense with an average defense is a legit championship contender.

Come on man you know that's not how AAVs work. Or do you think Shakir will actually count $15M against the cap next year? The common refrain is that the salary cap is a myth. Maybe that should be rephrased to say contracts are a myth. The money is real, the accounting is made up. Metcalf is EASILY affordable for this franchise. We'll have no top tier contracts on the books other than our QB and our RT (and even that isn't the top of the top tier). All the moves they made last offseason were about setting themselves up for a splash move this year. It's time. They need to add another top tier player capable of pushing this roster over the edge.

I agree which is why I'm hoping he gets drafted sooner. A 1T in the 1st round would be extremely underwhelming.

Would it surprise you to know we had an equal or better pass rush than Philly last year? 39 sacks to their 41, 151 pressures to their 111. The Super Bowl performance is skewing the perception on them. Equally important to their DL was that their secondary made Mahomes hold the ball a full second longer than we did, with Slay of course being an important contributor in that area.

I don't love that he'll be 33 when the season starts. His production has declined a ton over the past two seasons. If we still need some kind of downfield WR then sure give him a low cost one year deal but that would be as a last resort after exhausting all other options.

This is the most obvious solution for us on the market. Fills a need so we're not desperate heading into the draft.

Tell me more about this unknown team...

Safety is a position where I really don't care all that much about top tier athletic traits. In the modern NFL and especially in McDermott's defense it is more a cerebral position. This is why I also didn't like the Bishop pick last year. These weaknesses from Lance Zierlein's scouting report on Emmanwori scare me away: https://www.nfl.com/prospects/nick-emmanwori/3200454d-4d08-3509-4f43-ab1aefccbd0f The last two bullet points especially are concerning. Sounds like a classic case of an athlete trying to play football and I have no interest in using a 1st rounder on that archetype at a non-premium position.

@Pine Barrens Mafia could finally pass on to the other side.

The reason I wouldn't want to do that is it would severely weaken an already weak DT group. And then we'd enter the draft needing to take a DT and Beane has not done a good job when he's boxed himself in with that 1st pick. I also don't think Seattle would be interested because it's a strong DT draft class and if they're shipping out Metcalf it's to save money. You already know what I would do this offseason - I'd trade our 1st for Metcalf and pay him what he's worth, then I'd sign Davante Adams to a 2 year deal when he is inevitably cut. Our WR corps for the next two years would be: Metcalf Adams Shakir Coleman Samuel (possibly replaced in 2026) I'd use void years and restructures to go all in on the Josh Allen light show which to me is still the most likely Super Bowl strategy. I'd do all this while trading Cook this offseason and knowing in the back of my mind that Rousseau would walk after this year. And then Beane and McDermott can spend all their remaining draft picks on defense like their little hearts desire.

I agree with this. I don't want to oversell his abilities. He's just such a perfect fit for this team right now we'd be crazy not to add him if we can. I also want to point out Beane has been making a big splash move every other year. In 2020 we traded for Diggs. In 2022 we signed Von. In 2024 we couldn't do anything big because of the Diggs trade and other cuts. So now the timing is right for another splash move. It's been 5 years since we've made a big move to help Allen.

Which 1st round pick that Beane has made, other than Josh Allen, would you take over Metcalf right now?

I'm not especially happy with the DL but at least we have a DL. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills on here sometimes the way people act like that's our biggest need. I don't think a lot of fans recognize that right now we literally don't have an NFL WR room. I know there is still FA and the draft but as of right now we could not field an NFL offense. That is absolutely the biggest need on the team. Even if we wanted to run back what we had last season you're probably talking $18M+ this year to bring Cooper and Hollins back which means we're paying a lot more money for the same group of players that couldn't separate downfield. So if a WR like Metcalf is available, we have to do what it takes to acquire him. It fills the biggest need, it gives us a skill set that doesn’t exist on the roster, and it adds high end talent to a group that desperately needs it.

To be fair we also don't have the numbers on offense. We have 3 WRs on the roster, 0 that can definitely start outside. WR and CB are the only gaping holes on the roster. Safety is up there too because you don't want to rely on Bishop. DL needs improvements but there are no gaping holes, all of our starters from last year are under contract.

I just don't understand this thinking. We're saying no to an elite player that is a perfect fit with Allen, in favor of spending more resources on the side of the ball that literally never shows up in the playoffs?

Yeah it sucks that we need to score 35+ points to beat KC in the playoffs, but that is the simple reality. We've had four chances against them and they've never punted more than twice. The last two times our offense had the ball last and couldn't close out the game. So I've given up all hope of changing that game script. The correct strategy is to try and win within that game script. Anyways we would still have two 2nd rounders in a deep DL class so it's not like trading for Metcalf would preclude us from rebuilding the defense.

He's staying:

I'd rather not of course but if Doubs is in the offer from GB it might be necessary. I'm leaning in the opposite direction honestly. I still have hope Coleman can develop into a solid player. Kincaid I've come to accept just doesn't have it. He doesn't have the physical or mental makeup to become a high end player. Plus TE is a less premium position and this draft is supposed to be good for TEs. In fact I'd trade Kincaid this offseason for a 3rd if I could get one, before his value drops any further. I say this as his biggest fan throughout that pre-draft process. All of that being said if they required Coleman to close the deal I'd give him up in a heartbeat. That's the easy part IMO. You extend him for what he's worth and don't think twice. Paying a player at a premium position top of the market money should be the goal of every franchise, it means you have elite players on your roster.

No but he can make the defense practically irrelevant if he helps us score 35 PPG. Any DT (or any position for that matter) we draft at #30 is not likely to become an elite player. Metcalf is already elite and in his prime. There's no need to overthink it. It's a no brainer if he's available.

So based on reporting, you have to come in and beat Green Bay's offer. That means a 1st, maybe a 4th, and maybe giving up Keon Coleman too (or Kincaid?) if it comes to it. He had his best game against Seattle so perhaps they'd be intrigued. I hope we make this happen if it's a real possibility. It goes without saying but this moves the needle big time. A real downfield passing offense combined with last year's run offense has championship potential. If they can't get DK Metcalf in his prime involved in the offense, then go ahead and just fire the entire coaching staff now.