HappyDays

I'm going to make one last post on this which should summarize my thoughts, and then I'm going to leave it alone. Everything you say here is of course correct. Logically it seems obvious that Garrett would impact the game because he's the best game wrecker out there. And yet... deep down, I don't think it will matter against KC in the playoffs. In my heart of hearts I just don't really believe that. When has anything we've done on defense ever mattered against KC in the playoffs? I've completely lost faith that anything we do on that side of the ball is going to make a difference in that inevitable matchup. Where I differ from others is I don't think personnel has been our biggest issue against them. I think Andy Reid scheming against our defensive coaching has been by far the biggest mismatch in those games. I don't expect that to be a popular opinion but that's how I see it. So we could add Garrett, and DJ Reed, and Jevon Holland, and still I would bet anything that when the game is over we'll look at the box score and see that KC punted no more than twice and the game came down to Allen having the ball in his hands last with whatever supporting cast we've put around him. So go ahead and add Garrett. Certainly he would improve our regular season ceiling and put us in contention for the #1 seed. That alone probably makes the trade worth it. But if adding him doesn't come with a similarly splashy move at WR then ultimately I don't think it will matter. More to the point, I worry that adding him would prevent a splashy move at WR. In that scenario we'll fall short again because we didn't do everything in our power to make sure our offense can go and win the game when they have a chance.

Looking at OTC's cap table, we can easily get to like $30M in cap space this offseason and that's with me barely trying. I don't see any way we come away with Garrett and Metcalf. Unless I'm way off base on Metcalf's value the 2025 1st rounder would be mandatory. But I could see us coming away with Garrett and Higgins if Beane decides to push all his chips in. Paying top tier money to a QB, WR, and pass rusher not only should be possible but should be the goal for every franchise. In that scenario of course I'd be ecstatic that we made major upgrades on both sides of the ball. I just worry that Beane won't go that far. He'll make his one splash move and then add Darius Slayton and his usual band of overpaid depth players and call it a day.

Maybe. But I saw very little opportunity for our pass rush to get home in the AFCCG because Mahomes was getting the ball out in 2 seconds. My take has been and continues to be that it will be on our offense to close out the game. That's how it's gone in our past three KC playoff matchups. Only in one of those did the offense finish the job if not for a bit of horrid coaching. The past two the offense had the ball last and couldn't get it done. So that's where my focus is. Everyone else is trying to change the whole game script. I'm saying the game script is written in stone with KC so you might as well find a way to win within that script. Myles Garrett will be on the sidelines watching with everyone else when Allen throws a fateful pass on 4th down. Will that pass's target be Tee Higgins or Nelson Agholor?

I'm sure we'll have a vet in the room. A name I floated is Jonathan Jones from NE. Spotrac projects him at 1 year $2.8M. Something like that plus a draft pick is the ideal scenario.

Revel really intrigues me because we get an opportunity to draft a top 12 prospect with elite physical traits. Like when the Titans got Jeffrey Simmons later than he should have gone because of his ACL tear. I know it hasn't been this regime's M.O. but I feel like they can afford to take the risk. Data shows ACL tears are not at high risk of re-injury. If they can be patient and live with him missing most of his rookie training camp, it could be a major hit at a premium position for a franchise that hasn't had one in a while.

The move we should all be scared of is KC trading for him. They came close at the deadline and WR is still a need for them. Kupp would be lethal in Reid's offense with Mahomes throwing him the ball.

Presumably LA would agree to retain some of the salary, or a contract rework would be needed.

I'd be much more interested in this. Yes Kupp is past his prime but that lowers his trade value and he's not quite the slot-only WR he's made out to be with a 56.5% slot percentage this year. Get a savvy veteran with separation ability in the room. Where's the downside?

Yeah I can understand that. I'll admit desperation makes me open to the risk. This happens to be a terrible offseason to have a big need at WR. But to me it remains by far the biggest need on the team and I can't stomach punting on it just because the market sucks. Beane had his chances in offseasons with better markets and failed to capitalize. Metcalf would absolutely be my preferred option if Seattle wants to trade him. Definitely a better player and better fit than Higgins. Like I said I don't care about giving up draft picks for an elite player, I just don't want such a big investment to yet again be on the defense. I'm so over trying to make that side of the ball our path to a championship. I'm all in on shooting for a 40 PPG offense. If we do get Garrett I'll make myself excited about it and hope if nothing else he can close out a few more games to give us the #1 seed, but I'll worry that the season will yet again come down to the ball in Allen's hands against KC and yet again we won't have the horses to close the deal.

I think you're way off if you don't think that overcoming maybe the greatest dynasty in the history of the league isn't going to come down to one clutch play. You win a championship in moments. The players and coaches around Allen have collectively failed in those moments. If it didn't come on that play, it was going to come later on the drive.

Yeah I saw Allen improvise with two free rushers in his face and make an incredible read and throw. Allen's legacy has been written by his coaches and his teammates.

I'm just looking at the last game. The only problem our DL had in that one is it didn't try to contain Mahomes at all in the 1st half. We don't need Myles Garrett to do that. We came out in the 2nd half with a clear intent to contain rush and immediately forced two punts. We have what's supposed to be the best contain EDGE in the game but he unfortunately had his worst game of the year. In any case Mahomes was getting the ball out of his hands in 2 seconds. Nothing about that game script tells me we need to make a massive draft and cap investment on an EDGE. We need our coaches and existing DL players to perform better, or we need our offense to score a game winning TD when it has the ball last. In fact I'd put everything towards making sure that second possibility happens because two consecutive seasons now have ended with that exact situation. Of course Garrett would make our team better. It's just not where I would be prioritizing.

Mahomes does it because his teammates make the play with him. Allen's teammates run the wrong route or drop the ball or give up instant pressure. That's what separates their careers since 2021.

Everything I've heard about this draft is that it's strong and deep on the DL. While the WR class is apparently the exact opposite. So to me it makes more sense to use our money on a big WR investment, and then they can go crazy drafting defense if that's what they want to do. We haven't made a big WR investment since 2020. It's time. I agree the secondary can be rebuilt without making major financial or draft investments because of the system we run. I don't us making two splash moves. It's either Garrett OR it's Higgins/Metcalf. I'm taking the second choice for sure.

I feel like every time Higgins is mentioned everyone immediately says no way we can afford him. But now every single Bills fan and analyst is desperate for us to trade for Garrett and give him probably the same type of money? I don't know how anyone watched that last game and thinks pass rush was our issue. I'm all for getting a 1st round EDGE on a rookie contract but it shouldn't be our flagship investment of the offseason IMO.

So for me it's not about the picks. It's about the money. Whatever money we'd give to Garrett, I would sign Tee Higgins and use remaining resources to add to the secondary. I really don't think Garrett is the player that gets us over the hump. His impact on the AFCCG I think would have been minimal. Having a go-to WR downfield however would have made a big. Having CBs and safeties that can man up would have given our DL more than 2 seconds to get home. I'm not interested in any major investment that doesn't fix the issues that lost us the AFCCG.

Apparently you still don't get it because the play was designed to go to Coleman off of the fake screen, not Shakir. Shakir I would think was running an option route as the 2nd progression in case the defense didn't bite. It wasn't a low percentage completion. The seam hole is open if Shakir runs there. Like I said I don't know why he stopped and basically took himself out of the play. You're stretching to find reasons to blame Allen for the final drive. The guy has shown up in these moments again and again throughout his career. But since his teammates don't show up in those moments, he bears all the blame. I expect takes like that from random ESPN analysts. I don't expect it from Bills fans that are paying attention to every play.

Okay do you understand how QB progressions work? This isn't Madden where he's scanning the entire field at once finding the "most open" receiver. His eyes are never coming back to Kincaid, that's patently ridiculous. Allen sees the fake screen didn't work so he moves onto Shakir who should be running a seam against the 2 high coverage. That's the correct read. It's the same route we hit against Baltimore on our first drive for a big gain. Allen even looks off the safety to make him commit to Coleman so the seam hole is wide open. Why Shakir stops running, I have no idea. It's just a bad play call. The idea is to make the defense bite so hard on the fake screen that Coleman breaks wide open. But there's a deep safety on that side of the field so the play call basically relies on that safety biting absurdly hard. Use that play against like the Raiders in week 3. Against Spags in the AFCCG it's laughably bad. On 2nd down pressure gets to Allen almost immediately so he has to throw to Samuel early and the LB tips the pass. Too bad because Samuel's whip route was going to be open. On 3rd down Karlaftis makes a shoestring tackle on Cooper because KC players always make clutch plays in critical moments. On 4th down we know what happened. A Bills player not named Allen didn't make a clutch play in a critical moment. Shocker. It's really weird to look at this sequence and say Allen was "overthinking" because the pressure got to him. I mean what are we doing here?

Well I expect this to dominate the conversation for the next couple months. And I get it. Personally though I would invest in rebuilding the secondary before I would trade the farm for Garrett. Mahomes had an average time to throw of like 2.2 seconds in the AFCCG, only 1.77 seconds against man (if I'm remembering correctly). I don't care if Bruce Smith is rushing opposite of Reggie White, you aren't getting to the QB that fast. A player like Garrett would certainly raise our regular season ceiling and maybe put us in contention for the #1 seed so from that perspective I would understand it. I just don't think it's the move that will get us past the Chiefs in the playoffs. We need 3/4 of our secondary fixed and we need a downfield passing game. That would be my focus this offseason.

Uh, no. Kincaid was never an option. He was meant to pretend he was catching a screen pass. And Allen didn't airmail the pass, he thought Shakir was going to keep running to open space instead of stopping so he threw to that spot. But I don't blame Shakir either. It was a bad amateur play call and it was DOA when KC didn't bite on the fake.

What I like about Higgins is he makes big plays in big moments. And that's where we've faltered in recent years. We can keep up with any team over the course of a whole game, but when we need one player to step up at the end it is Allen and no one else. I'm not as gung-ho on separation as most other fans. I'm a proponent of pairing an above the rim contested catch WR with Allen's big arm. It's one of the reasons I wanted Coleman although obviously he needs to develop quite a bit to become the player I envisioned. By signing Higgins we can sidestep the entire evaluation process and just fill the hole with a known player who I believe would thrive in this offense. They can draft a WR with a separation skill set. And in general I almost don't even care about the skill set. Give me the very best outside WR available no matter his skill set and we can figure out the rest. In this case that player is obviously Higgins. If that means Rousseau walks for example, I really can't bring myself to mourn the loss.

I just don't think you can afford to pay two outside CBs, not with an elite QB under contract. Benford is getting an extension for sure. For his running mate I think they will sign a replacement level starter, something like Jonathan Jones from New England, and then draft one to compete with the free agent signing. I wouldn't even mind if they bring Douglas back for a low deal but they would need some competition there for sure. One draft scenario I've warmed up to is Shavon Revel with our 1st pick. Normally the idea of drafting a CB with our 1st pick would appall me, but we have a chance of getting real value there because of his ACL tear. For a team that always drafts at the bottom of the round, one way to cheat the system a bit and still find elite talent is by picking players that drop for non-football reasons. Jeffery Simmons, DK Metcalf, and Jalen Carter are recent players that fit that profile. In Revel you'd get a big athletic CB who normally would be flirting with the top 12. Put him across from Benford and then when we want to play more man we have the players to do it without fear.

I don't think we can afford to do both. The team has not made a splash move at WR since 2020. It's time. In three great WR drafts - 2019, 2020, 2024 - we drafted a total of 1 WR before day three. As a result we continue to chase the position. They need to just get it solved. Right now we have zero WRs on the roster that are definite starters outside. It's the worst the room has looked since, well, 9 months ago when we were having these same conversations almost verbatim. Higgins is the move. You live with the injury concerns because beggers can't be choosers. It's nothing like when we handed Von a franchise altering contract. Higgins just turned 26 and has proven #1 ability. Add him and some other WR with our first 3 picks, then you hope Coleman develops. Either way that strategy gives the room a very solid floor. I would make a splash trade for Metcalf if available but I agree I don't think he will be. There's been no buzz around it at all and this isn't a draft where Seattle is going to want to sell out for a QB trade up.