HappyDays

I've already made my peace that we lost the division. Yesterday's game was awesome but mainly it just keeps us in the driver's seat for the #5 seed. I have zero faith that Tua is going to lead a deflated Miami team into snowy cold Foxborough and win that game. In fact I'm more confident in the Jets upsetting them if Tyrod can get healthy, but that is obviously also a very low probability outcome. So yeah I'm all about making the road path as easy as possible. Something like @ Pittsburgh, @ New England, vs Houston? I mean that's a dream and it's entirely realistic if we win out and Pittsburgh wins the AFCN.

These two bullet points are what the offense has to be the rest of the year. It is proven at this point that the less the WRs are involved as pass catchers and the more we pound the run with Cook, the more effective our offense is. All season long I have seen fans wondering why Brady doesn't dial up deep shots. And then without exception every time he does Allen either holds the ball and has to check it down or one of his crappy WRs fails to complete the catch. It's almost satire that our WRs are better run blockers than pass catchers but that is the truth and we need to lean into it. On the flip side, I just listened to Joe Marino's all-22 review and he pointed out that Josh McDaniels only called 3 runs in the entire 2nd half yesterday. One of them of course was the long TD run which makes the play calling even more perplexing. The Pats were leading by 10 the first time they got the ball and were always winning or down by 4 at most, and they just totally abandoned the part of their offense we had been unable to stop. That would have driven me mad if Brady had made a fatal error like that. Brady, for all that I've criticized him, understands that you have to keep running even if it isn't working early. Even if it starts to feel predictable. Eventually you wear the opponent down and with this offense as constructed once we get some momentum we are very very tough to stop.

Surprised how many people are picking Denver. It's a matchup league and I think we match up well with them. They're basically the same team we blew out in the wildcard round last year. Ultimately I just don't think a QB like Bo Nix can out duel a QB like Allen in sudden death. This is my ranking from most worried to least worried, with lines denoting significant gaps between teams: Baltimore --- Houston Jacksonville New England Denver --- --- --- LA Pittsburgh

Ravens are still the team that scares me the most (now that KC is out). I know their season has been rocky to say the least but they are still very talented on both sides of the ball, and if Lamar continues to ramp up and get healthy they could be dangerous in the playoffs right when everyone has given up on them. For me they're the only AFC team I look at as a true 50/50 matchup. Any other team in the conference I feel we would be clear favorites. Pittsburgh winning tonight was big. It pains me to do this but I'll be rooting for New England next week. Give me a playoff picture with no Lamar, Burrow, or Mahomes and dare any of these other QBs to match points with Superman.

This makes it less likely he will get back to form in 2026 until later in the season.

I think a good standard is replace both QBs with Jared Goff. Goff is a borderline top 8 QB. Games we 100% definitely lose in that scenario: Ravens Chiefs Bucs Bengals Pats So the drop off from Allen to a very good but not great QB is 10-4 to 5-9, at best. Admittedly I haven't watched enough of the Rams to go game by game like I did here and say which ones Goff would lose. But I can guarantee the drop off is not nearly as stark. Allen is the MVP by the definition of the term. But the award isn't really about value, it's about narrative. If the Rams win out and the Bills are a wildcard, Stafford will have that claim. I still say there is a solid chance of Allen winning it as the wildcard but only if the Rams falter. The interesting conversation will be if the Bills miraculously win the division AND the Rams win out. I'm not sure what the voters would do in that scenario.

So I agree replay assist is mind numbingly inconsistent with its usage. They seem to use it more in games that they know the nation is watching which is a problem. Either the NFL wants to get the calls right or they don't. At least with penalties there is some kind of written standard even if they aren't always applied the same. With replay review there is no standard, it is just arbitrarily used whenever the officials feel like it. However I will say the clear difference in this case is that Cooks' drop was clear and obvious after one replay. No long protracted discussion needed, it was a simple mistake from the official and an easy correction. Boutte's catch was not clear at all. I said in the game thread and I'll stand by it now that it was a perfectly 50/50 call. If you want to say the ball moved too much along the ground to count as a completed catch, I can see that. If you want to say he clearly had both hands firmly gripping the ball before it hit the ground, I can see that too. So that one was never going to be overturned by replay assist. As far as a potential challenge, I believe the call on the field would have stood because it was not "clear and obvious" that the call was wrong, which is the necessary standard to overturn it. Having watched the replay back a dozen times I think I lean towards it not being a catch by the official rules... but it's a tight one. Even though the ball hits the ground you could make a case that the ground doesn't "complete the catch" for the WR which is the official rule. Too much nebulous interpretation of what happened for the officials to overturn that call IMO.

I still don't think it would have been overturned. I think the original call would have stood because of the "incontrovertible evidence" rule. However I have changed my mind from yesterday in the sense that I now agree McDermott should have challenged it. It's 3rd down and the worst case scenario is you lose a 1st half TO. Maybe the ball movement is enough to overturn it and force a punt so the risk/reward is worth it. It's a tougher call than fans are making it out to be though. The replay is not conclusive by any means and he had like 20 seconds to decide without any clear go ahead from his replay guy. I think most fans are particularly angry because they are 100% sure it would have been overturned. I remain unconvinced.

Here's another one that should have wiped out Henderson's 2nd half TD: And I don't complain about missed calls like this, it happens to every team in every game. The officials are only human after all. But it's ridiculous to try and act like there was bias shown towards either team.

Here he is saying nothing he could have done about Allen's performance. Allen is just too good for him to deal with: Pathetic all around.

Oh and Vrabel is wrong - the Bills DID have an offensive hold called, which wiped out a TD. I guess Vrabel doesn't remember it because our QB managed to overcome it and his QB couldn't overcome s***.

This is one of the more ridiculous moments I can remember from an NFL coach: Lost a lot of respect for Vrabel with this. The day after a loss he is pointing the finger at the officials instead of at himself and his team for blowing a 21 point lead. And these weren't even particularly controversial calls.

And the Bills fans who stated that would be equally as wrong as the Pats fans who say it now. But yes all fanbases should be sick of this crap by now. It's ruining the analysis of the game. All anyone wants to talk about is adding more flags to an already flag happy game. Even Vrabel himself stoked the fires with his ridiculous podcast appearance today. It's consuming every discussion of the sport and I'm just so tired of it.

It was the classic Tom Brady underthrow into a DPI. I don't understand how that one is even controversial. By the way this is why I hate when Bills fans blame the refs for losing. Every fanbase has the same complaints, we only notice it when it affects our team though. Most fans do not understand what constitutes a penalty. For example Taron is never holding Diggs on that final 4th down, he is just putting his hands on him to orient himself which is absolutely a legal play. Notice how Diggs who has never been shy about begging for penalties does not even try to plead his case. This angle makes it clear that both had equal control when they hit the ground which means the WR wins the tie:

Something went wrong with the pass protection on this play. 4 OL are blocking 3 rushers, which left 2 free rushers right up the middle. 1 of those needed to be picked up obviously and then you see what happens with Allen vs 1 free rusher. Too many pass pro breakdowns against blitzes this year but they tend to figure it out as the game goes along and they certainly did in this one.