Domdab99

And if they tie with the /colts they have to beat the Patriots. You sure you know what you're talking about, Shaw? how far exactly did it get him? Any Super bowl wins?

ahahahahahaha...thank you for making my point, guys. Classic. By the way, I'm 54 - not a "young guy."

Again plug in a tie into the playoff machine and you'll see that the only way we can make the playoffs is by winning out and getting a whole bunch of other things to go our way. Meaning: it ain't going to happen. A tie was as bad as a loss. Okay, I get it now...you just want to be right. Fair enough. Don't bother playing with the playoff machine and seeing that you're wrong, that would be frustrating, I know.

Shaw, just play with the playoff machine and plug in a tie yesterday - then see what we'd have to do to make the playoffs. A tie yesterday was the same as a loss.

I care because I want our new, young coach to use analytics and make proper "go-for-it" and two-point or PAT decisions. That gives the Bills a better chance to win games and, down the road, become elite. We are never going to become THAT TEAM if coaches make decisions based on fear instead of following the basic laws of probability. Old time coaches would rather put off the likely loss a few more minutes than make the right decision now - possibly fail - and then have no shot of winning the game. Here's a situation almost all head coaches in the NFL get wrong: Down by 15 with 5 minutes left. So you need one TD with an PAT and one TD with a 2 pt. conversion to tie, correct? Your team scores a TD. Every NFL coach will kick the PAT, when analytics says you must go for two there. Why? Because it's better to know you have to score more than once more NOW if you happen to fail at the conversion, then if you kick the PAT, get the ball back, and score a TD with 30 seconds left. Yes, you're down by two now and you have to make the conversion to tie the game, correct? But it you don't make it, the game is effectively over. However, if you go for two after the first TD and fail, you're still down by 9 and you know you have to play differently to give yourself a better chance at a win - maybe an offsides KO, whatever. But most coaches are more comfortable kicking the PAT because now they know that if they score the 2nd TD, they must go for two - or most likely lose the game. But it's the wrong decision. Same with the punt on 4th and 1. If they don't make, it yes, the Bills are not likely to win the game now. But if they punt it, they are LESS LIKELY to win the game than if they go for it. That's the whole point. Did it work out? Yes, and i'm glad it did. But it's so frustrating to see other teams with younger coaches - who still make mistakes - but who seem to get it. The game is changing, just like baseball did. Yes, there are more variables in football and those yes/no decisions are not as clear. But you still have to strive to make the right one. And McD is not doing that. He'll be gone in three years and we will start over again. But I hope I'm wrong and I hope he learns from this.

so if they go for it and don't make it, the game is over?

this is the whole argument right here.

this is so amazingly wrong on so many levels, I'm completely stunned. If you want to know why we haven't been to the playoffs in 18 years, it's because the organization thinks just like this. I am literally stunned there are so many otherwise intelligent posters on this site - who have apparently watched years of football without learning a damn thing - who can't understand basic math and probability. It's astonishing.

So playing with the playoff machine, it seems that if we go 9-7, we need the Chargers and Jags to win their divisions, the Chiefs to lose at least one game, and either the Ravens or Titans to lose at least two games. We do not make it if we tie either the Titans and Ravens at 9-7. So one of them has to finish 8-8. Either the Ravens or Titans are going to be the 5th seed - assuming no major collapse by Jax. Of course, running the table would help immensely, but I'm not counting on that lol

looking at the playoff machine, I just know that we are now fans of the 49ers.

Milano led the game in tackles...

wow

spoken like a man who has no clue about math or probability

Why do you think it's putting everything on one play? Either you: make it and continue driving don't make it and now have to stop the Colts punt and have to stop the Colts

The reason why I think this decision matters so much is because I want a modern coach who knows what the +EV decision is so that we can one day become an elite team. Coaches who do not do this, do not win Super Bowls that often. They are Andy Reid and Ron Rivera - good coaches who time and time again make the wrong game decisions that cost their very talented teams possible championships.

1) There are four minutes left, so if the Bills make the first down and keep the drive alive, they will either a) make a TD and win; b) turn the ball over on downs with the Colts having to go a long way to score with little time left; c) kick a FG with little time left for the Colts to tie or go ahead. Two of these options will almost guarantee a victory and keep the season alive. One of those will end in a tie, but damned if they didn't try to win it. 2) The snow, the field position, Webb at QB, the Colts moving the ball late - all are important factors. But there was really only one factor that mattered: THERE WERE ONLY FOUR MINUTES LEFT IN THE GAME AND THE SEASON. A tie is as good as a loss. Our coach chose to punt the ball in that situation - hoping that everything would break his way and that the Bills would A) get the ball back again with little time left, and B) move the ball in the blizzard and score in that short amount of time left. It was an asinine decision, pure and simple. Going for it is literally the only sane decision there. It give you a better chance to win the game. But hey, congrats to McD for closing his eyes and hoping for the best possible outcome.

No, what's HUGE is that were only 4 minutes left in the season - and you're punting the ball away instead of going for it.

What??? Where do you come up with this? If they don't make the first, the Colts have first down the Bills have to stop them. If they punt, the Colts have first down and the Bills have to stop them. There is no difference except for field position. But if they go for the first down, they win expectation GOES UP.

Do you understand that there was only 4 minutes left in the game - in the season - and that they were effectively giving up a huge chunk of win equity? Does that get through to you at all?

I just want to have a coach who plays to win

lol no

It;s amazing how many people here don't understand probability, EV, or football.

exactly

No it doesn't! No decision works 100% of the time! You're being results oriented, and that's a bad thing. It's like if you decided to put all your net worth on this week's powerball tickets. But you win! So it must've been the right decision, right???