SouthNYfan

solid writeup, I'll give my points vs yours (i copied a bunch and left what I agreed with) (I copied down yours, and I bold where we disagree) 2018 (team - 2017 record - prediction - notes) @ Ravens - 9-7 - ? (To me this is a wildcard, a win isn't impossible but it is on the road with all our changes) vs. Chargers - 9-7 - L (They improved their team in 2018 and were hot ending the season and their pass rush is dominant) @ Vikings - 13-3 - L (I don't see a win even if it were in Buffalo) @ Packers - 7-9 - L (Aaron Rodgers is back, and it's in Lambeau) vs. Titans - 9-7 - ? (solid defense, solid team, I think it's a tossup, but I'll give us the edge if I had to pick because we are at Home) @ Texans 4-12 - ? (Watson is back, but their team is a complete question mark overall) @ Colts 4-12 - ? (depends on Luck imo) vs. Patriots - 13-3 - L (not likely to win this) vs. Bears 5-11 - ? (they drafted well and added some weapons, different team than last year) @ Jets 5-11 - L (We struggle in NY) vs. Jaguars - 10-6 - ? (I'm not sure about this one either) @ Dolphins - 6-10 - W (I think we beat them twice again) vs. Jets - 5-11 - W (I can't see us getting swept by the Jets) vs. Lions - 9-7 - W (Snow game vs. dome team 2.0) @ Patriots - 13-3 - L (not happening) vs. Dolphins - 6-10 - W (Closing out the season with a win vs. the Dolphins.... again!) "8 teams we face had a losing record in 2017" While this is true the Bears upgraded significantly, Luck looks to be healthy for the Colts, the Packers have Rodgers back, Texans have Watson back, and the Jets/Dolphins I think we split with. I see: Wins I would bet on: (4) Jets (home) Dolphins (home) Lions (home) Dolphins (away) Losses I would bet on: (6) Patriots (home) Patriots (away) Jets (away) Packers (away) Vikings (away) Chargers (home) Games that are a tossup to me, I will put W or L for who I think the favorite is, but these are a close call to me: Jaguars (home) L just don't think we can score on that defense Bears (home) W even though they improved, giving it to the Home team Colts (away) L if Luck is healthy, which I think he is Texans (away) W even with Watson, but it's close Titans (home) L they were a solid team last year, and I think they are a tough play even at home Ravens (away) L only because it is in Baltimore, but it's a coinflip to me That means I basically think we are 4-6 with 6 "coinflip 50/50" type games, which I think we go 2-4 in and finish the season 6-10. I am not unhappy with 6-10 and this is solely based on the fact that I think we have McCarron at QB and Allen not ready to play. If Allen lights it up, then all bets are off IMO.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter what QB you wanted because you aren't the front office. Are you still going to watch the bills with Allen? I am.

Josh Allen is cowboy Jesus

Well he is young, fast, and good, but he's been hurt bad on the same hand twice. Ironically here is his draft profile: "He's a dynamic playmaker. Think Percy Harvin, that's the kind of playmaker that he is. He has a quick start and explosive speed. The only key for him is that he hasn't run a route tree. You will have to manufacture touches for him as he learns the route tree. He's special with the football in his hands." -- Mike Mayock So just like Percy he can't stay on the field lol

Sounds about right from what I saw from him. Sometimes fans of the team actually dislike a guy since they've seen more of them, so glad you think he's good too. That's what I get from his reports, hopefully it's all true.

I'd like to hear that. Know you're usually very high on bama guys, what do you think of Ridley? I think he's going to have a good rookie year, being opposite Jones should give him a lot of single coverages

Yeah, takes a bit usually, unless they are legit top of the draft guys, and even then they usually start as wr2 or need to have some other WRs to keep from being double covered all the time

Even go back as far as Brady. He wasn't asked to do much early on, and wasn't unleashed for a few years. Most QBs need their hands held and to be brought along slowly because the nuances and difficulty of the NFL QB position is so much different than say, a RB or linebacker.

Good post. I agree.

That goes for every draft pick ever.

I'm not even sure we face any WRs on the roster to begin with.

EJ could make a bunch of the throws, just not any of the useful ones Allen looks much better on tape than EJ

He said they gave a "bunch of WRs"... He never said they were any good ?

Maybe he's looking for Ironman CBs who will play both ways? ? I think the durability is a big concern with this front office. Sammy? Gone. EJ? Gone. Glenn? Gone. Rosen? Passed. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't offer Kelvin a deal unless he stays healthy. If you can't stay on the field they don't want you, with good reason.

My point I was getting at is if they had a late first grade on him, then they wouldn't have taken a safety and a wr before him. At least not both of them.

Well if he's as good at keeping secrets as he is at coaching WRs then a leak is almost certainly in the cards.

I honestly don't think he will flame. I think he will be a solid starter replacement for Ben, nothing special, but just average to above average. I just cannot believe they had a first round grade on a QB and decided to roll the dice and pass on him for a safety and a wr. I know dilfer loves Allen

This, 10000%. "Yeah, you know, I passed on three first round picks and a second because I really wanted a RB at #2, who I'm gonna be paying top3 salary immediately, when I could have gotten one 85% as good for 50% the price in the second"

Ben contemplated retirement this off-season. I doubt he plays more than 2 years. I see no reason to pass on him if you think so highly of him. It's Rudolph fans trying to act like he was higher rated than a third, even to the Steelers. I have no doubt they are happy drafting him, but if they had a first round grade, and thought he could be the heir to Ben, they would have taken him sooner than they did.

If they thought he was so good and had a first round grade there is no reason to wait until the third and risk missing on him.

Makes me less sure of their talent evaluators ??

Then why not take him in the second? I think that's them trying to convince themselves he's good.

Sometimes Mel sends a guy somewhere because he's close to BPA and best fit. Like he didn't mock a QB to the colts or NYG this year if I remember correctly, even if he thought the QB on the table was better, and he will mock a QB to a team who needs one even if a slightly better player (like Barkley or Chubb) is available I'd like to see some reviews of his mocks though

Exactly. Go big or go home. Make the calculated risk. If it pays off nobody cares what you spent.

Definitely. Your knee, in single leg stance (so just during walking while on one leg) takes 4x your body weight LBS per square inch of pressure (psi). That's not running or jumping, just standing on one leg. So 225 is 900lbs of pressure 210 is 840lbs and so on Knee health is directly related to body weight in many ways. Best thing for him is to cut 15+lbs