JohnBonhamRocks

Hoping McDermott's approach to training and the new staff combine to decrease the injury number. BTW our WR corp ain't half bad, and it got better from last year: 2016 top 3 WR stats (Watkins/Woods/Goodwin): 108 catches, 1474 yards, and 6 TDs Average of Matthews & Boldin's last 3 years + average projections for Jones: ~188 catches, 2224 yards, and 14-15 TDs

For citation purposes, this was said yesterday on WGR and I think they mentioned the LA Times for Watkins' quote. Not sure for Darby, but assuming the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Could've been an audition. Could've been Taylor just chose to throw to Watkins. Either way, it's done, I don't think whether or not McDermott was aware matters all that much, and fans should inspect anything coming out of OBD through a critical lens.

$15.682 million for an average of 12.3 games played, 51 catches, 820 yards, and 5.7 TDs per year? Terrible value.

Bobby Shaw

I agree he's more talented. I just value availability and consistency over talent and potential.

Only plays 12 games per year... WOW! Do I really think cherry picking stats is useful? No, but I can do it too.

Also, for those touting Watkins' similarity in talent to the top 5 WRs in the league, what about that stat that Matthews is one of 5 or 6 WRs to put up the amount of catches and yards as he has in the first 3 years of his career in all of NFL history?

I should have clarified - I was talking about Watkins, asking if he is a WR1. Assuming you do based on your comments, I ask if you think that based on his production?

Do you say that based on production?

I do think Kelly was referring to the go-to role Watkins played for Taylor that Reed played for him. No reason Matthews can't be that for Taylor. Every time I note that Matthews is more consistent and available, I feel like I have to add a disclaimer that I understand Watkins is more talented.

Is Watkins as productive (note: not talented) a WR as McCoy is a HB?

I feel like Matthews plays more like Reed than does Watkins.

Maybe they take 2 QBs? Taylor v. Peterman v. draft pick v. draft pick next camp?

I agree that Watkins can recover from injury, like you pointed out with Jones, Bryant, and Edelman. It's about probability. Matthews, while less talented, is more likely to be available to play given both of their injury histories. Watkins might be entering his prime. He might not. Same for Matthews. I get your point regarding our passing game and scheme fit, but my point was that, Watkins or no Watkins, Dennison's play-calling and Taylor's ability at QB are going to be relatively the same. It boils down to a boom-or-bust argument I think. Watkins gives you the potential for a top 10 WR, but the injury and availability concerns loom. Matthews is less talented, but he's consistent and plays more often. I like the safer bet, that's all, but I do understand wanting to take that chance at the same time. It was mentioned somewhere above, but I would think the money aspect of the whole argument has to favor Matthews.

I'd have to go through all the teams (and maybe I'll do that when I have more time), but I can safely say top half in the NFL, which is the definition of above average.

You said, "The per game average is the correct method for comparison with Matthews playing in 9 more games than Watkins." Then I showed how they have the same targets per game, but because Matthews plays more often his stats are a little better. You're moving the goal posts by re-focusing on YPC and TDs per game, but even considering that, my argument is on the "per game" part. Less games = less TDs, no? Let me stress that I agree it is obvious Watkins is a more explosive and dangerous WR. But Matthews is more productive overall because he's the more available and consistent WR.

See bold. Plus, over the past 3 years: - Matthews targeted 337 times in 45 games (about 7-8 targets per game) - Watkins targeted 273 times in 36 games (about 7-8 targets per game) I don't see the disparity in the numbers. See above. And why is that method "correct"? I bet Matthews has more impact on a game in which he plays than Watkins does from the bench. Better hope that WR isn't out for a game where the playoffs are on the line!

Again, not arguing talent vs. talent. Matthews isn't as good, but he's on the field more, so the stats even out. Hypothetical: would you take the most talented WR in NFL history if you knew he could only play 8-12 games? Watkins has played in a run-dominant system, agreed. Not sure how that would change had he stayed. Matthews also caught balls from Sanchez/Foles/Bradford/Wentz. None of them are exactly blowing Taylor out of the water.

When evaluating players, there is a choice to consider or not consider how their availability impacts their overall value. I choose to consider it. When I do, I see two guys from the same draft class who have averaged the following over their first three years (Matthews vs. Watkins): - 75 vs. 51 catches - 891 vs. 819 yards - 6.3 vs. 5.6 TDs PS: Johnson's best 3 years stretch in Buffalo is better than both Matthews and Watkins.

At least.

His best days are certainly behind him. Good thing the range of 500-800 yards and 4-8 TDs is not as good as his best days and still totally possible to reach this year. Matthews and Jones both run in the 4.4s, so while they aren't likely to line up to Goodwin at the Olympics, they can still get down field. Yeah, Watkins has a better YPC, but again that's when he's playing. I won't go so far as to say Jones is a lock for any type of production, but if I had to put too much stock into a rookie WR, then a guy with Jones' sustained production would be my choice.

Tough to get targets when you're not playing.

An aging vet who averaged 73 catches, over 800 yards, and 5-6 TDs the past 3 years. An unknown rookie who had the most catches than any other college football player in history. If you consider Matthews a WR2, then so is Watkins statistically. They put up the almost the same numbers.

Posted this in the other trade thread, but, in a vacuum, $10 million per year for a guy who will usually be in the line-up and give you about 900 yards and 5-6 TDs is good value. Edit: Also, unsure how Matthews/Jones/Boldin seems like anything worse than an above average top 3 WRs.