Last Guy on the Bench

Re-watching parts of the game - it wasn't as bad as I remembered. Yes, there were some big blown plays by the defense. But Rivers converted a bunch of close ones too where he was just about to get hammered and the receiver was pretty well covered. Hats off to him. He's a HOF QB in my eyes. On the other side, we had no cheap points whatsoever. No turnovers. Brutal field position. Colts forced us to punt 4 times. Good defense. But we also had great drives: TD drives were 85, 96 (1!), and 77. Massive. And the FG drives weren't short: 44 and 39. I think it felt worse than it was, because three of the punts were on three and out possessions. We are not used to those. But they happen. All it takes is a small mistake. We've been spoiled. Didn't the Bills set the team record for first downs this year? And they were near the top of the league for fewest punts and fewest three and outs, I think I remember hearing.

For sure, there are a number of guys that can make that throw. But do you think they can make it look that easy and casual? Not that that matters in terms of impact. But it is pretty fun to watch.

Thanks for highlighting that, so I could go watch it another 10 times. You are right, it is absolutely insane. He looks like he is using the same amount of effort that I would use to throw the ball to my little nephew 3 yards away. I don't actually understand the physics of Josh Allen. He is a quantum MFer.

Right. It is the exact opposite of how I've felt on 3rd and long for the past 25 years. Shifted from: "Oh well, next drive" to:"We'll probably get this," in 2017 and has never wavered. Josh on 3rd down, Josh in the 4th Quarter, Josh in the Red Zone, Josh down one score . . . all money. He can't win 'em all. But it sure feels like he can sometimes.

Well. That had me bawling my eyes out. On a Saturday morning in January. In South Africa. I haven't lived in Western New York for 30 years. But this team, even during the seemingly endless dark days, has just been one of the loves of my life. I think we will win today. But even if our boy Frank figures out some way to shellac us, I will wake up tomorrow heartbroken (again), but just as in love as always. It's really impossible to explain how deep it runs. I know every team has their fans, but I do think the relationship between the Bills and their fans is extraordinary.

GMFB is the best football show going right now. It’s a pleasure to watch this crew. And yes this week's angry runs was phenomenal. Absolutely hilarious. I vote AJ Dillon all the way. What a smack.

Excerpt from Mike Sando in The Athletic: The Bills have a really good record against highly ranked defenses. With the Bills facing the Steelers, I went through their games during Allen’s nearly three seasons as the starter to see how they’ve fared against top defenses in general. Each defense from 2018, 2019 and 2020 was ranked No. 1 through No. 32 in EPA per game, with games against Buffalo excluded from the calculations to avoid biasing the rankings. The Allen-led Bills are 7-3 against top-five defenses over the past three seasons, including 4-0 this season after beating the Los Angeles Rams (No. 1), Steelers (No. 2), Miami Dolphins (No. 4) and San Francisco 49ers (No. 5). Allen had 14 touchdown passes with two interceptions and four total turnovers in those games. He averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt, 0.39 EPA per attempt and 335 yards per game against those teams, with a 121.8 passer rating. After neither offense accomplished much in the first half Sunday, Allen completed 14 of 20 passes for 162 yards and two touchdowns to close out the Steelers, twice converting on longer than third-and-10. [Full article (paywall): https://theathletic.com/2255570/2020/12/14/josh-allen-bills-afc-east/ ]

Only if we can swap the Pats and Jets.

Sure, but my point is that that shouldn't even matter. It's stone cold obvious to anyone with a cerebral cortex that if you can't practice in your controlled facility, it's not OK to practice somewhere else. The players should have known that with or without any memos or any notification by the team. How could it possibly make sense to say, "Well we can't practice in our sanitized facility due to the risk of spreading COVID, but it's OK to practice offsite with no sanitation, monitoring, etc." Idiotic.

The excuses from the players who practiced offsite about whether or not they knew it wasn't permitted are absurd. You don't need a notice from the league or your coach to tell you that if, due to positive COVID tests on the team you can't practice in your highly controlled and sanitized team facility, it's beyond stupid to practice offsite, in a non-controlled space - for your own safety and for the safety of the other people who use that space. It's like they are in high school trying to get away with breaking arbitrary rules by the adults rather than equal participants in a community trying to figure out how best to navigate a very difficult situation together. I'm not in favor of a forfeit for all sorts or reasons. But those players should all be suspended for several games.

Here's the Levi segment. Cool guy. This team seems to be full of 'em. Levi Wallace on GMFB

My worry is that they "fixed it" by playing crappy QBs - at least in part. Hope you are right.

Good post. I agree. I don't think that any of this means we have a terrible defense. Just maybe that we have a solid but not-that-great defense, so we are going to have to win games this year by scoring a lot of points (unlike last year when we could get away without doing so). If last year's offense faced this year's schedule of QBs, we might not win 7 games.

Like everyone, I'm feeling ill at ease about the defensive performance so far. (Luckily we have the Stallion-Legend-Cantaloupe-Farmer in our corner.) Looking back at last year, we faced some seriously weak QBs. I'm wondering how good our defense actually ever was? Our 10 wins were against: Fitz (2 wins) - whose beard still averaged 300 yards a game against us Mono-Darnold (who might not be that good even without Mono) The about to be benched corpse of Eli The about to be benched Marcus Mariotta Aging journeyman Andy Dalton - who threw for 250 but did get picked twice, including the game-sealer by Tre Rookie Dwayne Haskins The about to be benched Brandon Allen (currently residing on the Bengals practice squad) Rookie UFA Duck Hodges Dak Prescott - the only genuinely upper echelon QB we beat - and he threw for 355 with 2 TDs and a pick Not exactly a murderer's row. Three of those QBs were benched the week after they played us. The six losses don't show much air defense either: Lost twice to the Ghost of Tom Brady. Lost to Mayfield, who isn't that good and still had a decent day with 238 yards 2 TDs and 0 picks. Perhaps their best showing against a good QB was in the loss to the Ravens - that one gives me the most hope. Lost to Wentz - who didn't have to do anything because they ran down our throats. The second string lost to Darnold (barely) This year we have have Goff, Cam 2.0, Wilson, Mahomes, Roethlisberger, Murray, Garoppolo, Carr, Tannehill 2.0 Quite a difference. We survived Goff thanks to our now truly delightful offense. Hopefully the Defense will improve, but I'm feeling very skeptical, since they seem to struggle against good QBs, especially in the 2nd halves once those QBs are able to make adjustments to our carefully schemed out 1st halves.

Original video seems to be gone. Here's one that's working at the moment: The Cantaloupe Farmer's Angry Run (starts 1:00 in)

Great article. I hope the Bills crush the Fins, of course. But Fitz is the only QB where, if he throws a TD against the Bills, I kind of take pleasure in it, even though I am also upset (as with any TD against the Bills). I just get joy out of seeing him make plays. He is one of a kind. The article didn't even talk about how he used to throw a barbecue after every home game, not for his teammates but for his neighbors.

Agreed. To me it's totally worth it just for the Bills - best most consistent, most detailed coverage out there. One of the only places you can reliably get more than just the regurgitated press conferences. There's good general NFL stuff too. I happily re-upped after my initial cheap year. Well worth it. I've started following Chelsea in the Premier League too, so all of that stuff (which there is a ton of) is a great bonus for me. I don't keep a close eye on any other sports or teams, but if you do it will be even more worth it to you.

I guess I'm in the minority, but I still really like Murph and over the last few years I've gotten many hours of enjoyment listening to the show while taking my walks. I'm even pretty fond of Tasker, though I admit his sentences often change direction in pretty perplexing ways. Brown often has good insight, so I enjoy him in short bursts. I'm a little skeptical about listening to him for three hours at a time, though. Guess we'll see.

Yeah, this felt like a very Ravens-type pick to me - in a good way, obviously, since the Ravens have drafted so well. They always seem to pick up the sliding guy - the one who can just play football. They are super confident in what they see on film and don't out-think themselves with caveats and projections and imaginary what-ifs, which a lot of teams seem to do. Glad the Bills under Beane seem similar.

I second this. Love that guy. Think he will significantly outperform his draft slot. Won't be a superstar, but should be a steady, productive NFL receiver for a long time, once he gets on the field.

I'm so sorry for your loss. Thanks for taking the time to share. We all get great joy from this crazy Forum. Glad it was some solace to your husband.

Bonus feature (sorry if already posted): Diggs playing Family Feud, withs special guest appearances from Tre and Tyrod. Celebrity Family Feud

True, I did notice how accurate some of those throws were. But a lot of them also seemed to take several weeks to get there. Josh can throw some ropes to Diggs while he's still wide open before the DB can close again, unlike Cousins. And Diggs has great, snatchy hands, so he should handle those JA fastballs no problem. Hopefully Josh has been working on that deep ball too, because Smoke and Diggs are going to get each other open deep regularly. We'll see. Fun times!

Some interesting comments in The Athletic from scouts about the WRs in this year's draft. Makes you realize how hit and miss even the "best" ones are in the draft. Look at the varieties of opinions. Not everyone is at all in love with Jeudy and Ruggs for example, let alone the guys who will likely be there at 22. More reason to love the Diggs trade. Adds fodder to the post that said the Bills were not thrilled about the WR value in the second part of the first round. (I've pasted the WR part below, but it's just an excerpt from a much longer article on offensive players as a whole, so I hope that's OK.) https://theathletic.com/1665631/2020/03/17/mcginn-scouts-size-up-their-top-prospects-on-offense/ Wide receivers (9) CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma (6-1 1/2, 195): Lamb’s ordinary combine workout — a 4.48-second 40-yard dash, a 34 1/2-inch vertical jump — encapsulated what is viewed as one of the deepest wide receiver classes ever, but one that perhaps lacks a generational talent. “I think this is a really good wide receiver group but this isn’t a slam-dunk, top-five group,” one scout said. “It’s loaded from like (picks) 20 to 50. There are 10 guys in that one. But there’s no Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, those types of guys.” Lamb, a three-year starter, averaged 19 yards per catch and caught 32 touchdown passes. “Best run after the catch since Amari Cooper,” another scout said. “Every time he touches the ball it’s a potential touchdown. He had one drop in the six games I watched. He’s just so quick. Gets separation. Excellent on fly sweeps. He’d be a bigger Marquise Brown from there last year.” He returned punts all three years, averaging 8.8 yards per return. “You see him in person, you’re kind of turned off a little bit,” a third scout said. “Then you watch the guy after the catch. For a guy that’s his build, he plays stronger than you would expect. He’s a big-time playmaker.” Brandon Aiyuk, Arizona State (5-11 1/2, 205): A onetime junior college player, Aiyuk “was a backup (in 2018),” said one scout. “Nobody even knew who the guy was prior to the season. Each game the guy improved. He’s much better than (N’Keal Harry) the guy last year that went in the first round. That guy was a jumper; this guy is a separator.” He ran the 40 OK at 4.53 seconds but had jumps of 40 inches in the vertical leap and 10 feet, 7 inches in the broad jump. “Really a utility player similar to Deebo Samuel,” another scout said. “Not a natural receiver. More of a jack of all trades. Just quick routes, end-arounds. Returns. He’s tough and has some explosiveness in his route-running.” Scored a 23 on his first crack at the Wonderlic intelligence test. Tee Higgins, Clemson (6-3 1/2, 216): He elected not to work at the combine but did test Thursday at Clemson’s pro day. “He’s got great size, he’s exceptionally athletic, his ball skills are top-notch and he’s a really good route runner,” said one scout. He caught 135 passes, averaged 18.1 yards per catch and had 27 touchdown receptions. “He wasn’t the best receiver at Clemson,” another scout said. “The sophomore, Justyn Ross, was. When they needed a big play, they went to Ross. Physical receiver, excellent strength, body control and hands. I question his top speed and explosion. Reminds me of Mike Williams, who San Diego drafted in the first round (in 2017). He’s more of a strong, possession-type guy than a top speed guy. I’d estimate he’s 4.55.” Henry Ruggs, Alabama (5-11, 188): He led everyone at the combine with a 4.24 in the 40, not to mention a vertical jump of 42 inches and a broad jump of 10 feet, 9 inches. “He’s super fast,” said one scout. “Speed, speed, speed. He’s really good.” Ruggs had 98 receptions, a 17.5-yard average and 24 touchdown catches in a three-year career. “Go look at the top 20 receivers that have run fast and none of them are any good,” another scout said. “People say, ‘Ruggs ran 4.2. He’s going to be a Hall of Famer.’ He was essentially, in Alabama’s offense, the third guy. He was really a specialist where they designed certain plays for him, mainly that over route where he goes from one side of the field to the other … and outruns everybody. He is fast, but when people get on him, you don’t see the same speed and route-running. He’s not a make-you-miss player. If you use him for what his strengths are, he’ll be good in your offense. If you expect him to come in and be your No. 1 receiver, I don’t see that. He’s a space-vertical linear route runner that needs space to catch the ball.” Justin Jefferson, LSU (6-1, 202): The junior slot receiver for the national champions. “Whole thing with him will get down to speed,” one scout said in late December. “He was their second-best guy there. They have the sophomore (Ja’Marr Chase). He runs mostly possession routes. Acrobatic type catcher. Plays strong in traffic.” Jefferson made a statement at the combine by running 4.47 seconds in the 40. “He elevated his status when people were questioning if he was legit speed,” another scout said. “You didn’t see the 4.4 on tape. He worked out really well. Does his best work in the slot. Great feel. Really good hands. Savvy. Quick.” Jerry Jeudy, Alabama (6-1, 193): A third-year junior and two-year starter. “He has good speed and runs great routes,” said one scout. “Gets a lot of separation. More of a polished guy than Ruggs and also taller.” Jeudy solidified his status by running 4.44 seconds in the 40. “He’s very, very quick,” said another scout. “Reminds me somewhat of Amari Cooper with the quickness, the routes, the run after the catch. He’ll play, but I don’t think he’ll be a big-time receiver.” Chase Claypool, Notre Dame (6-4, 238): He is from Abbotsford, B.C., an hour east of Vancouver. “He had no fundamental sports background, including football,” said one scout. “You’ve got to temper your excitement a little bit. He tested out of this world but there’s still a lot of work to be done there. Not a natural catcher, not a natural route runner. Kind of gets by on his ability. This kid is a much better football player and way tougher than the (Miles) Boykin kid that came out last year. I think he’ll get drafted in the second round … but I need something more sure in that round.” Production improved each of his four seasons. Ran 4.44 seconds with a 40 1/2-inch vertical jump. “He goes to the combine and kills it,” another scout said. “Now he’s one of the buzz guys. People were talking about him as a tight end. I said this is a No. 1 (wide) receiver. Fluid, body control, girth, speed. Awful QB (in Ian Book), but still makes plays. Nothing’s wrong with him.” He scored a 27 on the Wonderlic. Jalen Reagor, TCU (5-10 1/2, 206): He averaged 15.2 receiving yards, 9.3 rushing yards, 17.8 punt return yards and 24.2 kickoff return yards. “Holy (cow), he’s exciting,” one scout said. “He was one of the guys I got most excited about. He’s an explosive playmaker.” His father, Montae, was a second-round draft choice in 1999 who started 46 of 99 games for three teams as a defensive tackle. “He is as explosive a receiver as I saw this year,” another scout said. “I haven’t seen a better punt returner, either.” Ran 4.46 seconds in the 40. Said a third scout: “I thought he was the most explosive route runner on tape. He’ll go up over people with bodies around. Little bit raw. Strong hands, but a lot of easy drops. You’re always going to have to deal with drops with him but he is a playmaker.” Denzel Mims, Baylor (6-3, 207): A three-year starter with 28 touchdowns. “I would have thought no way in the world just watching him on tape and now he’s top 50,” one scout said. “He’s a big guy and ran fast. You see he’s got savvy, hands, good route runner. Kind of a limited route tree at Baylor. Just kind of a catch-and-get-tackled guy. You didn’t see the deep speed.” Had a big week at the Senior Bowl, especially in the red zone, and then ran 4.38 seconds in the 40. His arms measured 33 7/8 inches. “He has strength and hands but I don’t think he’s anything special,” another scout said. “In the Big 12 Championship Game, Parnell Motley (of Oklahoma) totally shut him down and he’s a late-round pick. He’s a guy that makes the possession catches.”

Fair enough. Good analysis. Thanks. For me, he's got all the talent in the world and when he flashes I love what I see. Whether to draft him high would depend on his character - is he the kind of of guy who's going to respond to a disciplined, learning-focused NFL environment and continue to grow? If so, a lot of what you are saying could be ironed out. On the other hand, if he's the kind of guy to coast on his good plays and not really push himself to get stronger in areas where he struggles, he won't even see the field much for a team like Buffalo.