Last Guy on the Bench

I should feel more empathy seeing as that kid is basically me in my forties and fifties talking about Tom Brady. But that made me laugh with great delight. (And a touch of empathy. We've all been there, little brother.)

Thank you! It is soooo hard to just look at playoff outcomes and make meaningful numbers-based conclusions. The sample is so small and the variables so large. You are much better off looking at the details of what happens and the longer-term patterns over many games/seasons of a given coach. The idea that you aren't a great coach if you don't win a Super Bowl never made sense to me. Too reductive. And even sillier is the idea that you are a great coach if you do win a Super Bowl. As a fan, while I am dying for the Bills to win a Super Bowl once in my lifetime, I can't say I would trade the last several years of phenomenal enjoyment and excellence for one Super Bowl win. If you told me that Norwood's kick would be good, but that subsequently the 90s team would fall of a cliff and not make it back to the next three Super Bowls and that years later the Josh Allen experience would never come to Buffalo, no way in hell I make that trade. I know some of you (many?) would. But not me. I'll take the years and years of deep enjoyment over that one euphoric moment. Of course, if I can have both all the better. Go Bills!

Right. It's funny to watch. But wouldn't have been so funny if that TD got called back because of it.

That interception was on 4th down. We weren't getting a field goal, because McD had decided to go for it (which I like). That's why I don't think it was really a bad interception, though the return made it seem a lot worse.

Ha ha. The replay from behind the goal posts definitely makes it look like it went 70+.

Agreed. I think the Dolphins made the right call. If they make the 2-pointer, then we are in 4-down mode for our whole last drive, giving us an even higher probability of getting at least a field goal. I think their best bet to win was either OT or a relatively quick stop (where we don't go for it on 4th down) and they get the ball back with a little time and a couple time outs and maybe they get the last second field goal. They really played well. Tua only had 3 incompletions. I enjoy dumping on the Dolphins as much as the next Bills fan, but you have to hand it to them. They played a hell of a game on the road, and might well have won it if Poyer doesn't gift us that conversion. (Though the gift might be expensive if Keon is out for a while.)

I've been looking for video of that one. Has anyone seen a link? It was pretty entertaining. And who did that guy bonk on the head with the football afterward (which created the offsetting penalties, thankfully)?

Paste from the comment section of the game article on The Athletic. (No way to know if this is a real Chiefs fan of course.) Eric H. · 1m ago @John P. As a neutral chiefs fan I saw it coming. Sure they shedded some talent but they focused on building a more balanced roster. And as much as everyone (bills fans included) has ***** on McDermott he’s done an excellent job getting good defensive play while dealing with injuries. And of course Josh Allen is still a freak and should be on his way to back to back MVPs (should have won it last year and I don’t see any way he doesn’t win it this year unless he gets hurt). He’s better than Mahomes right now and it’s not particularly close.

If I could translate: "I'm not grading statistics. I'm grading statistics." BTW, I'm not saying your grades are wrong are Alpha's are right. You are just using a different lens than he is, but arguing as if it's the same lens. And your lens doesn't seem to have much of your own analysis to it - it's just the numbers that everyone can see. Whatever Alpha's grades are or aren't, I like it when people take the time to watch and evaluate play beyond what I can see on first glance watching the game or read about it on the stats sheets. Doesn't mean they are always right of course. But they add a lot more value than whatever it is you are doing here. (To be fair, I like a lot of your posts. Just can't understand why you are so cranked about someone else's grading scheme. And why you won't at least critique it on its own terms, if you disagree with it.)

You seem to be grading stats. Which anyone can do. Alpha is grading how well people did what they were asked to do (by the scheme/playcall), in his opinion. You are making no kind of counterargument to what he is actually doing. You're using an entirely different rubric and getting outraged over nothing.

I'll never get tired of Marv running with those high-water pants. Love it.

Thanks. I had the same reaction. I went into the video trying to cure myself of highlight-itis, expecting to see what I'd been reading - that he can't get open, that he failed to make a lot of contested catches, etc. I found the opposite. Sure there were moments that looked that, but so much of what was happening seemed to be more about the QB's decision making and his accuracy. There were lots of throws where Coleman was decently open but the ball was underthrown forcing him to slow down and adjust and bring the coverage back to him. There were lots of throws into double and triple coverage. It was more like whenever the QB got in trouble he would just wing it to Coleman, often underthrowing in an attempted back shoulder, but not really getting the timing right (maybe some of that timing issue is Coleman's fault too, I don't know). It was really hard to evaluate Coleman fully based on that system and those QBs. I don't really have a prediction about how he'll turn out. But I am VERY curious to see him in an offense where he won't be getting so much defensive attention and where he's got #17 throwing to him.

It's actually a pretty amazing city now - some really cool transformations since the 90s, though like any big city they still have their problems. And health care in Colombia is top notch. I wouldn't hesitate to go there for any kind of treatment or procedure. There's actually a lot of medical tourism there, because the quality is so high, and it's way cheaper than the U.S. (what isn't?).

One other clarification - no trade "costs" the team dead money. That money was already paid and always had to be accounted for against the cap, whether the player remained on the team or not. Trading (or releasing) the player just changes the "when" of the accounting. We were always going to eat that money against the cap - now we're just eating it all this year instead of spreading it out.

I don't think so. Browns took on the guaranteed salary that was still owed, not bonuses that had already been paid out. Don't think you can do the latter. Of course you can trade any future obligations. But not past payments. The dead cap is all the bonus money already paid out to Diggs but prorated over the life of the contract in terms of cap accounting - can no longer be prorated because we don't hold the contract anymore, so all the money left to be prorated gets immediately acclerated to this year's cap. But again, it's just accounting for money that has already been spent (paid to Diggs).

Sorry if posted already. Dion = joy. Kay was loving him. He was in a severely good mood. Make your already good day a little bit better and watch this. Shnowman on Up and Adams

If the Dolphins do beat the Chiefs (which I agree could happen, though with that weather maybe not), then the Ravens would get them and we'd get the Browns in your (Gregg) scenario. No way the Dolphins beat the Ravens in Baltimore. So if we managed to beat the Browns we'd be on to Baltimore. We'd have to go through almost the whole AFC North to get to the Super Bowl that way.

Disagree. Fumbles happen. Whatever. But he has no feel for returning and hasn’t all year.

I do. I'm sure there are others. I love the internationalization of the game. The more the merrier. I realize I'm likely in the minority. But it's hard to be sure. I'd be interested in real data on that, as usually the people most against it are the ones that jump early into threads like this.

Sorry if posted already - I've been trying to keep up but may have missed it. But here is a comment from the Athletic (Mike Sando article) with an angle on how the Toney penalty is viewed around the league: 2. Does Mahomes have a point about the offensive offside call? He’s not getting much sympathy. Down judge Mike Carr threw the flag right away, well before Mahomes threw the ball to Kelce, and well before anyone knew the offensive offside penalty against Toney would wipe out an incredible play. “It’s tough to swallow, not only from me, and football in general, to take away greatness like that,” Mahomes said afterward. “For a guy like Travis to make a play like that, you want to see the guys on the field decide the game. … I’ve never had offensive Offside called. If it does, they warn you. There wasn’t a warning the entire game. And then you make a call like that in the final minute? Another game, we’re talking about the refs. It’s not what we want for the NFL. It’s not what we want for football.” Lots to unpack here. Terry McAulay, the former NFL referee now providing analysis for NBC, noted that officials have called offensive offside 11 times this season, up from twice in 2022 and once in 2021. It was called a 12th time during the Philadelphia-Dallas game. McAulay called Toney’s violation an easy call, and consistent with how the rule has been interpreted this season. On-air officiating analysts typically rally to the support of their on-field friends, but in a league filled with coaches and executives embittered by inconsistent calls, there was no outrage over this one. “The line-of-scrimmage officials are in charge of the entire neutral zone — pass-rusher alignments, center head bobs, all those things,” an NFL team exec said. “When someone aligns as ridiculously Offside as Toney did, the officials can’t see in there to do their jobs. It’s an easy flag when it’s that blatant.” The NFL this season has sent officiating enforcement tapes to teams with a focus on presnap alignment rules for offensive linemen on “tush push” plays, according to league sources. One of those videos from November referenced receiver alignment, noting that officials would throw flags if the violations were blatant. The video included an example play when offensive offside was called against a receiver. “It was the right call,” a former head coach said. “It is so obvious when you are close to the tackle. I mean, I can’t believe there would be anyone that you would talk to who would say that was not a penalty.”

On the injury list.

Need something new to get excited about every year. This year it is the emergence of Terrell Bernard.

Idiotic take (not you, the article). Clearly Josh is working on the mental side of his game and always has been. But the idea that reflection, experimentation, trying to grow and evolve (which of course will come with ups and downs) is somehow weak or confused or unhelpful is absurd. Sure overthinking things can be a problem in any area of life, but if that's happening, continued reflection will help him see that too. The article could have been interesting; the topic is interesting. But it's such a knee-jerk and/or clickbait angle.

One of the things about McD that made me nervous from the beginning and that no one has ever explained in a way that made me feel better is that Andy Reid fired him. Why? If he’s such a hard worker, committed learner, and keen football mind, why fire him? Reid obviously knows his stuff and he has a good coaching tree. He saw something he didn’t think he could keep working with and developing.

For some reason Mike McD is at the Bills Pats game.