MAJBobby

Just justifying my grades. Both are three down backs. One is better in the passing game and why he is graded higher. FYI one is graded at 16th best player the other is 18th best player. I see that too. But rookie year I would like to see him with the 188 touch workload before I decide there. And bringing in like a Perine limits the risk there if Cook does continue to go down easy. but I do share that concern. Doesn’t justify me enough to bring back Motor or sign over him for example.

Super Bowl appearance nothing less. However I will temper that currently I need to see how they navigate this offseason first.

This is probably about Right. I would have Allen as the BU to Mahomes (need two QBs)

Said he is Fine, will not need surgery and nothing to see here.

Gonna take 4-5 to camp. I guess could move on Hines at anytime with no guaranteed money and no triggers. I would not want to go into Draft with only Cook in the room is all. Addressed that in the OL primer.

Yeah the fact Saffold was added I think should be enough to make Fans realize this game and its selections are a FREAKING JOKE.

Gibbs is better out of the backfield in my eyes, that is why I have him over Robinson in my grading. I could see them trying to Flip Mixon and Perine. However they also still Need to sign Bates, Bell (both starting Safeties), Apple, Hurst, Flowers, and Pratt. We all know Paul Brown will only spend cash to the cap here. I really could see them letting Perine walk. But if not that is the type of back I want in UFA.

OK here we are time for the one position group that so many love, I don’t value nearly as much as some, so I want to warn everyone, my writeup will likely be a bit biased here against the group as a whole, Now that that disclaimer is done time to move on to the RBs. The standard disclaimer: I use SPOTRAC (primarily) sometimes will use OverTheCap as well for the salary and contract information. I will also use profootball reference (primary) for stats. Also this isn’t meant to be a complete wrap-up of the past season but more so a look at in the future, obviously I will look back at times to talk about how I see the future. So here we go … Financials: Contracted players: 50 (SPOTRAC shows 52 but that includes Phillips Void and Saffold Void) with a cap hit of $241.768M Cap Space (top 51): -20,517,462M (Cap Announced causing this adjustment) RB/FB – 3 players on contact 3.59% of CAP, 19th highest in the NFL. RFA None UFA Devin Singletary – 26 years old, Cap hit in 2022 – 975K, projected market value 5.5M AAV – Gonna start of here by saying this is interesting on his projected market value at 5.5M, that number almost could be completely offset by the release of Nyheim Hines, if there is another Return man identified on the roster, because Hines really offered nothing to the offense since the trade and I would rather have Offensive production over ST players (this is below with Jones as well). Now let’s investigate the numbers for Devin. He was roughly right on his running attempt number of 177 (that is roughly where he has been all 4 years in buffalo). Right at his yards as well with 819 (had 870 last year). 5 TDs, 43 runs resulting in 1st. 4.6 yards per carry. (This is right where he was last year too). Receiving side 52 targets (highest in career, two years at 50), 38 catches 280 yards, 7.4 yards per catch, 1 TD Catch rate at 7.1%. Some fancy numbers 3.1 yards before contact (this one caught be by surprise a bit and was the highest in his career). Not nearly as many broken tackles (9) as in the past and went 19.7 attempts per broken tackle (worst in his career). Had 6 drops highest in his career but was a 91.8 QB rating when targeted. All these numbers scream productive back here. I would not be opposed to bringing him back, however I want to make sure other priorities are allocated against first. However, a 5.5M AAV contract could likely be structured in a way to account for 1.5M against the 2023 cap (Jones Cap hit), and then Hines falls off in 2024 before this contract gets up in the 5-6M Cap hit range. Taiwan Jones – 35 Years old, Cap hit in 2022 – 1.272M, Time to move on from a ST only player. On Contract James Cook age 24, 0.58% of cap, 1.325M cap hit (No Savings) – He is exactly why I am moving on from Singletary IMO. Anyway here are his numbers. 89 attempts 507 yards, 2 TDs, 25 runs resulting in a 1st down and a 5.7 yards per carry. Had 21 receptions on 32 targets for 180 yards and a 8.6 yards per reception and a TD with 65.6% catch rate. Some fancy numbers 3.7 yards before contact, 3 broken tackles and 29.7 attempts between broken tackles (numbers suggest not as hard to bring down as Motor). Had 3 drops and a 77.6 QB rating when targeted. In my honest opinion the numbers back up what my eyes were telling me Cook is RB1 going forward. Nyheim Hines age 26, 2.11% of cap, 4.79M cap hit (4.78M in savings) – This to me looks like the deal I would have wanted for Singletary if resigned, So IMO he is the Singletary extension. I can handle that for a couple reasons. 1. He is on Contract for 2023 and 2024 with no guaranteed money so no problem moving on from him at any point. 4.7M cap this year 5.4M cap next year. Brings the return capability (something that Motor doesn’t), then if you look at him in the roll Cook played this year with about 110 touches he did really well with the Cols, with a 4.9 ypc and 7.7 yards per catch. I think that tells me we have our two RBs here, fill RB3 and RB4 late in the draft, UDFA or post draft value RB signing. Reggie Gilliam, age 26, 0.90% against cap, 2.023M cap hit (1.361 savings) – here is hard, to me I say move one save the 1.36M, but I know there is value here outside the just about zero production in the stats. But only logged about 17% of Offensive Snaps and 78% snaps on ST. Because of the Big ST contributions from him I probably would keep him on the roster (taking essentially the Taiwan Jones cap hit. But I could see this as cut prospect if can find a Rookie to do what he does. End of the day if Gilliam is moved off the Bills Roster it will be after camp IMO. Notable UFAs – Ok I will list some here, I personally would not sign anyone, but I will make a list of who I think can fit the offense anyway. RB Saquon Barkley, 26 – This is probably the top RB on the market. Going to likely cost around 13-15M AAV. I could get talked into this because he is good in the passing game as well. So I do think this would be like a McCaffery type RB (that the Bills have flirted with). Kareem Hunt 27 years old. This is a back that would slide right into the role that is offered, he has played it most of his career. Probably in the 5-9M AAV range. Josh Jacobs, 25 years old – Here is another back that is both good in the running game and pretty darn good in the passing game as well, I could see him getting mor than Barkley to be honest. But Probably in the 11-16M AAV range. Samaje Perine – 27 years old – This would be the ONE back I would sign in UFA early. Likely around a 2-4M AAV contract, 5-11 240 (BIG POWERFUL BACK) this SHOULD allow us to fix the short yardage without putting more hits on Josh. RB 1st round Jahmyr Gibbs, 5-11 200, Bama – I have him ranked as the best RB in the class. Bijan Robinson, 6’0, 220, Texas 2nd Round Devon Achane, 5’9” 185, Texas A&M Zach Charbonnet, 6’1” 220, UCLA Zach Evans, 6’0” 215, Ole Miss DeWayne McBride, 5’11’”, 215 UAB What I would do: I would Let all Motor and Jones walk. Motor has been supplanted by Cook and Jones is nothing that I cannot find with a late round or UDFA Rookie. I then go into UFA and Sign Perine from Bengals, get that short yardage back the team has used Allen for, now I no longer need to keep putting that punishment on him as I have a back that can routinely pick up those 3 to 4 tough yards in short yardage. That is about a 1.5M hit in 2023. RBs before draft. RB1 – Cook RB2 – Perine RB3/Returner - Hines Draft Unless you get Gibbs or Robinson to fall to you in the draft wait until 6th or later and address it. Me personally I get a couple UDFAs (we have had good luck in UDFA RBs) and call it a day in this position group. Past Writeups Links: Cap Tickets (30 Jan) State of the Franchise (23 Jan) Offensive Line (23 Jan) WRs/TEs (26 Jan) Final one on Offense will be QB - hint, dont expect anything earth shattering there, then on to defense. Any specific group anyone want me to stat with on Defense?

I am not sure if you saw my write up on the OL. but the link is in the OP, so that might help a bit as you start looking into the UFAs

At the end. If we only do the Allen, Miller and Oliver extension Cap Space (top 51) at 31.72M I ran a couple contract games over the weekend. I was able to add Jawaan Taylor (RT) - 2023 Cap hit 5.5M Isaac Seumalo (OG) -2023 Cap hit 5M Ethan Pocic (C) - 2023 Cap Hit 4M. All would have outs in after year 3 and that was structuring a deal that would pay them AAV 1-2M over their projected market value on SPOTRAC. That would be a brand new Right side and Center for 14M this year in cap hits. (they doubled roughly in 2024 year).

Edit one: All cap numbers are now updated IAW with the Official Cap announcement at. 224.8M at 1457 30 Jan 2023 OK here we are I took a break on the Position Group to do a cap ticket one. So that way everyone has a little cheat sheep for the Bills Cap Health and tickets that they do have. I will get back to the position groups, I just wanted to take a little break having already done the WR/TE and OL (which IMO are the two biggest need position groups). The standard disclaimer: I use SPOTRAC (primarily) sometimes will use OverTheCap as well for the salary and contract information. I will also use profootball reference (primary) for stats. Also this isn’t meant to be a complete wrap-up of the past season but more so a look at in the future, obviously I will look back at times to talk about how I see the future. So here we go … Financials: Contracted players: 50 (SPOTRAC shows 52 but that includes Phillips Void and Saffold Void) with a cap hit of $241.768M Cap Space (top 51): -20,517,462M (Cap Announced causing this adjustment) (edited in after official number was announced) Cap Tickets (restructure candidates) – Before I get into this I will also put would I do it after the writeup. I have personally requirements to make a restructure, 1. Is the player sub 30 years old, 2. Is there at least 2 years left on contract. 3. Will I be guaranteeing new money (this tends to make me say No to the restructure). Josh Allen, 27 yrs, 2023 Cap 39.772M, - Ok with him it looks like there is 27.5M (base) 8.47M (roster bonus) that are fully guaranteed. So, he has 35.972M guaranteed this year against that CAP hit of his. So we could absolutely do a restructure here. I will run it out for max cap savings, however Bills could elect to do less than what I do here. If you make his Base 1M and make the Roster and Base Salary Signing Bonuses to prorate out. I an push 34M into the out years. He has 5 years outside of this one. But I think for Simple restructure they must account for allocation this year as well. So 34M/6 = 5.67M. So that type of restructure would make Allens Cap hit this year – 10.47M (Saving 29.3M). Not including the Roster Bonus as part of the restructure and only including the Base makes hit Cap at (18.2M) with saves (21.1M). *I would do this fits my criteria. Stefon Diggs 30 yrs, 2023 Cap 20.277M – This one is a little harder, there is a 7.8M Base and 250K in bonuses that could be restructures. That would lower his cap hit to 14.4M (saving 5.6M). There are years left to support he proration – 4, the issue is next year it really looks like that is when this contract was set to do something with when he has a base of 18.5M and the out year right now is after the 2024 season. *I don’t think I am touching this one for only a 5.6M savings at this point. Von Miller 34 yrs, 2023 Cap 18.615M – Here is mainly the restructure of his 13.5M roster bonus as his base is already low. So if you take that guaranteed roster bonus make it a signing bonus and pro-rate out, it doesn’t affect anything else with his contract, out year remains the same. You can make his new cap hit at 7.637M and saves 10.864M. *I would do this. Tre White 28 yrs, 2023 Cap 16.223M – This contract has triggers to it. Essentially his entire base guarantees on March 22nd 2023. Reason I mention this is those triggers make the 8.6M base guaranteed, and it important because they will trigger there is no savings with Tre on a release (adds 6M in dead). So now that makes that base salary restructure capable. He would have 3 years of contract to pro-rate any restructure over the 3 years. This would bring his cap number down to 10.3M and saves 5.88M against the 2023 cap. *I probably only do this if I need another 5.88M for an impact signing, I don’t like restructuring an injured player, I would like to see if he fully regains form next year before doing anything here. Dion Dawkins, 29 yrs, 2023 Cap 14.824M – We are in the out years of Dawkins. We could get out of his contract for a 2M savings this year, so if we do anything to this contract we will be hurting that flexibility. There is no guaranteed month left on this contract, so the Dead money is all prorated signing bonus, and the restructure bonuses from his restructure last year. Here you can reduce his cap down to 8.2M and see a 6.3M savings. *I would not touch this contract. Matt Milano, 29 yrs, 2023 Cap 13.34M – Even with his restructure last year there is a 4.66M savings if cut. He has a 3.5M guarantee trigger on 19th March, of his base salary. Issue with this contract is only 2 years left and 2 years of void years (carrying dead money from his restructure in 2022). Can do a simple restructure here as well and drop his base to 6.4M and saves 6.5M against the cap. *I think the right move here is an extension or something like that over a restructure, put some money on those Void years instead of just dead cap allocation. Absent addressing the contract length and void years, I would not touch this contract unless necessary. Those are really the Bigg (over 5M in savings) tickets. Other Restructure contacts are the following (over 2M savings.) Hyde – 4.3M savings T. Johnson – 2.5M Savings D Jones – 2.7M Savings Extension Matt Milano, 29yrs - as referenced above I would do an extension here, two years left and 2 void years, there is a way to redo this which would likely lower this years cap hit by about 6M, and puts hit actual on contract to play for the next 4 years, instead of 2 and 2 void. I left it alone for this thought game. Ed Oliver, 26 yrs, 2023 Cap 10.753M, an extension here could lower this cap hit between likely 2 to 6M depending on structure. That could free max on an extension of call it 7.5M. * I would do this. So if I only touch the 3 cap tickets I mentioned (Allen, Miller and an Oliver extension) I will save 47.7M against the cap. And not take on really any long-term financial risk at this point. That would make the Current Cap Space (top 51) at 27.2M. Allocate 5M conservative for Draft, that should give about 22.2M to play around in UFA. That is more than enough to bring in 2-3 top end players. Next up back to the Position groups with RB then QB, then I will head to the Defense. Past Writeups: State of the Franchise (23 Jan) Offensive Line (23 Jan) WRs/TEs (26 Jan)

Basham is carving a nice little role. Epenesa never needs to be in coverage and was a lot this year. What other players are not developing? You know all that is on that DL are high draftees.

Yet Rookie WRs make impact day 1 all the time. Specially those taken early. You are talking about a 4th round pick to try and push your inaccurate take. I think they want to use Knox as a Catcher more than blocker. The OL issues put a pin in that plan a bit IMO.

I don’t know I think Oliver and Groot are developing just fine

the ONLY on that is on this list that might have a little ? Mark on him at this point would be Frazier. If they agree to mutually move on and not extend his expiring contract. The replacement is already on the staff in Eric Washington IMO

McD: keep him or fire him ? In case of firing him, who’ll be your first name ? Keep - Dorsey: keep him or fire him ? In case of firing him, who’ll be your first name ? Keep - Frazier: keep him or fire him ? In case of firing him, who’ll be your first name ? Keep - Beane: keep him or fire him ? In case of firing him, who’ll be your first name ? Keep

To be Honest. With that List if McD isn’t the coach of the year I have serious questions about how they judge that Honor.

I understand you thinking. I am a bit on the opposite there. Reason being I do think RT is a major need as well as OGs. I would rather go into UFA and fill the starters there because I don’t really like the OL class in this draft. So I think UFAs even with UFA contracts are safer on the OL. then go into the draft for two rookies. If they want to really push all their chips this year you can get the OT, 2OGs and WR (Hopkins) in UFA. That will likely cause a small reset in 2024 or 2025 (similar to what KC did this offseason moving Hill, ETC). I think I am going to put a pin in my position group write ups and do a Primer on the Cap next before I go to the rest of the offense and defense. That way there is a look at the cap health. And how we can get space

We can fit his current contract in the cap. It would limit what we could do elsewhere. Unless post trade we restructure add a couple years. Give guaranteed money in a signing bonus and prorate the high base salary. Could probably get his cap it in the Mid single digits. That said I am not trading Oliver for him. And it would cost likely a 1st to get him which I want no part of either.

Nope as I said I stopped reading. What a waste of a premier pick on a low value position.

Well they have Rice in 3rd. Never can trust PFF grades on prospects. They always tend to be the outliers from the consensus. I stopped reading on RB in the first.

Finally got one to run that was somewhat realistic.

Agree. They don’t like his routes I guarantee it. PFF routinely downgrades Spread Players, Routes and size. I hate their draft grades

Their Software is BROKEN. Another 100 not possible with Default settings Nope just ran another Default and look at the results.

Yeah I know right. PFF at times with their software and rankings to have Rice graded in the 3rd if funny