jrober38

As I said, it doubles every 3 days. A week ago it grew by 1,500 cases. Yesterday there were 8,000 cases. In 3 more days it will be growing by 16,000 cases a day. 3 days after that it will be 32,000 cases a day.

This thread should be re-titled "Would you pay Josh $35 million a year based off what he's shown so far?" The answer to that question will tell you if he needs to "prove it".

It's been doubling roughly every 3 days. In 2 weeks it may have doubled 4 more times. If that happens, confirmed cases will be up around 650,000 to 700,000 cases.

It will take 2-3 weeks for those "advances" to have an impact. The epidemic in the US will hit its peak in 3-4 weeks. At that point the healthcare system will be completely overwhelmed.

Agree with all points.

Italy is an example of what happens when the healthcare system fails due to being overwhelmed. That hasn't happened in the US yet. It will happen in 3-6 weeks depending on where you are. At that point the number of deaths is going to sky rocket.

Italy has done a very good job testing. Not as good as places like South Korea, but until it's not 8% I'll assume it is. The worst is yet to come in the US. It's going to get way worse before it gets any better.

How do you know? The mortality rate in Italy is 8%. In Spain it's 6%. This thing hasn't even hit hard yet. In two weeks when NYC hospitals are completely overwhelmed and people are dying in the hallways the death rate is going to begin to rise.

What if it kills 5% of the population? Or 8% like in Italy? How many lives are expendable?

Why would I not trust a bunch of doctors who have decades of experience? Why would you trust politicians with no medical expertise at all ahead of the actual experts?

Right. The flu doesn't go away. Influenza is constantly mutating which is why it can't be eradicated. That's why you can catch it several times over the span of a few weeks. In a world with 7.5 billion people, many of them are carrying around influenza right now, spreading it to other people all over the globe. It's been around for thousands of years. COVID-19 started with one person in China, who has slowly been spreading it all over the world. It's been around for 4 months. There's an obvious difference as to why corona virus hasn't killed as many people yet.

You're ignoring the fact that exponentially more people are going to have it in 4 weeks than have it now. And regarding the deaths I'm talking about the entire world. All of the experts maintain this is at least 10 times more deadly than the flu. I trust them.

Because this virus has existed for only 3-4 months. There are way more people with it than there are confirmed cases. There aren't enough tests. Also, people walk around with this for 5-14 days before showing symptoms. The average fatality is about 17 days after contracting the disease. In 17 more days, Texas will be in a significantly worse state than it is right now relating to COVID-19. In a month there are going to be exponentially more cases across America and exponentially more deaths.

The tsunami of sick people is going to hit in late April or early May. By then there will millions, if not tens of millions of cases in the US and at that point no one will be comparing it to the flu. It will touch every part of America, and I read somewhere that like 40% of rural hospitals don't have a single ventilator, and if you make it to an ICU with this virus you can't survive without a ventilator.

THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I had the flu twice between December and January. Didn't go to the doctor either time.

You don't seem to understand how pandemics spread. Everyone doesn't get it the same time. It spreads. Person A gives COVID-19 to 3 people (the average transmission based off data I've seen), who each give it to 3 people, who each give it to 3 people, etc. By the time it's been transmitted 10 times, 30,000 people have it. That's how this thing will spread. 45,000 people (knowingly) have it right now in the US. In a few days after each of them have given it to 3 more people, 135,000 people will have it. A few days after that 400,000 people will have it. In a month if the curve isn't flatter, millions of people might have it, and tens of thousands will be dead.

Given how contagious it is the projections seem possible. Those models have been put together by health experts who know more about this stuff than any of us could ever imagine. The other issue to consider is that things get worse as the health care system gets strained. As things stand the US still has masks, protective equipment and other supplies. In a week or so some hospitals will be out of protective equipment. Once the rush comes, and the system is strained is when it will get bad. NYC has about 2500 available ventilators and currently around 500 people in ICUs hooked up. In two weeks once this thing has spread exponentially again, the number of people in need of a ventilator will exceed the number available in some hospitals. This is what happened in Italy where they've had to leave people to die in the hallways. More people need ventilators than are available and the healthcare system collapses. In Italy the mortality rate is almost 10% because their hospitals were completely overwhelmed with people in need of critical care.

It adds up when you consider that most Federal Governments around the world are projecting 40-70% of their population to get the virus. Considering that it kills 1-2% of the people it infects, you're talking about millions and millions of deaths.

Naw. Bailouts will come in early May. 6 months later the Federal Election, then they'll tell everyone that they bailed out Trump's hotels and golf courses and there's nothing anyone can do because he can't run for a third term. They know exactly what they're doing.

Wait and see. Trump will reopen the economy in two weeks and he'll accept that the consequences of doing so will mean more people will die. They'll be making a choice, and it will involve choosing to kill more people than is necessary just to save the stock market.

Then you keep sending them money. Layoffs are going to be massive over the coming weeks. You either cut people checks or you crash the economy. Jobless claims this week are going to be in the millions.

You cut everyone a check and then tax it back. The people who don't lose their jobs or see their salary increase will pay it back in taxes next year. The people who lose their jobs and make no money this year will pay less or no taxes. Problem solved.

Probably everything. If you think he won't be bailing out Trump's hotels and golf courses you're kidding yourself. 36.2% of American workers work for large companies with more than 2,500 employees. Do you really think it makes sense to focus on large scale corporations when almost two thirds of the country is employed elsewhere? If you want things to be fair, just cut everyone a check and see where the chips fall. In 2008 they bailed out Corporate America. This time around I hope they actually help in a meaningful way by bailing out all workers.

Honestly I don't have a problem with either. I have no issue with abortion, and I have no issue with the government trying to save the economy if it means hundreds of thousands more people dying than is necessary. I don't care. I just think the lack of awareness to realize that BOTH decisions are almost entirely based on economic consequences is hysterical. CHOOSING to let more people die than is necessary so that you're not economically inconvenienced is the same damn reason most people get an abortion.

There you have it. 15 days of shutdown and then Trump and the GOP will begin opening things back up. Who cares how many people die. Saving the stock market is more important. The hypocrisy here is mind boggling.