jrober38

He'll be fine this year. I think he winds up as a top 10 Tight End. I cannot understand why RB is considered a "need" for this team. We need someone who can carry the ball 5-6 times a game. You look for that on the third day of the draft.

Because we have to decide if we're going to pick up his 5th year option and the $30 mil price tag that comes with it at the end of the year. Jones did all this with one of the worst group of pass catchers in the NFL and a very poor offensive line.

The Sabres were very entertaining and relevant throughout the late 90s and 2000s. The last 9 years in comparison have been terrible.

It's hard to run an NFL franchise into the ground given the sports popularity. The first couple years under Whaley were a mess, but they seem to have found something with Beane and McDermott. Hockey is way less popular. You actually have to put a good team on the ice or have a team in Canada where demand for the sport is extreme.

The Pegulas have run the Sabres into the ground. The franchise is completely irrelevant outside of WNY.

The Bills ran the ball 29 times a game last year. I expect that number to go down this year with the weapons we now have in the pass game to maybe 27 a game. I think Singletary will average about 14-15 carries a game, Allen will average his 6-7, Yeldon or another backup can take 5 a week and then sprinkle in some gadget plays and reverses like the ones we ran to McKenzie last year. Finding a guy who can carry the ball 5-6 times a game is definitely not a priority in my eyes.

He's played on a team with two elite receivers, an elite running back, an elite tight end. Just because his stats are good doesn't mean he's an elite QB. I think a lot of QBs in the NFL could do what he's done with that supporting cast.

I think most teams are in trouble if their starter gets hurt. Yeldon will only need to pitch in 4-6 carries a game plus some work on 3rd down. If Singletary goes down Yeldon can handle a heightened workload for a couple games. I think another back from the 5th or 6th round rounds out what we need at the position. I'd much rather but our remaining draft picks into our offensive and defensive lines. Spending a 2nd round pick on a running back after Singletary averaged almost 80 yards a game over the final 6 games doesn't make any sense to me. That pick needs to be used on one of the lines. As I said, running back is way down my list of needs for the Bills.

Singletary was amazing last year, particularly down the stretch. There's no reason TJ Yeldon can't do what Gore did last year. Running back is way down my list of Bills' needs this draft. Grab a body in the 5th or 6th round. Spending an early pick when we have Singletary and Yeldon as a decent backup who can catch the ball doesn't make any sense. This offense is built to pass the football. We've invested huge resources into the pass game and accordingly I expect that to be a focal point for this team.

Singletary and Yeldon are fine as a 1-2. We need someone for depth and special teams.

This is essentially where I'm going with all this. The notion you just need to pony up the cash and make whoever your non-terrible QB is the highest paid player in the league is massively flawed. It's such a scared way to operate. I think eventually the league will figure out how to play money ball at the QB position because there's so much value you can unlock once you get past the top 15 highest paid players, even though there's a minimal output difference between the guy who is 10th best and 24th best. I think Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray suggests there's a shift in QB thinking in some circles. Neither player fits what the NFL would have considered a 1st round QB up until Russell Wilson succeeded so I think there's beginning to be less emphasis on how a QB "looks" which is probably the basis of traditional scouting and more emphasis on how players can actually run an NFL offense. I'd have traded Elliot two years ago for sure. That was a terrible decision. But he's there and he's a workhorse. He's still a very good back. I'm not sold on Dak. Maybe it was Jason Garrett, although I don't think there's any chance Mike McCarthy is going to improve things. I think Dallas' best opportunity to make a run was 3 years ago. Dak was good, Elliot was incredible, best offensive line in the league, and an excellent defense. I think they've horribly mismanaged their roster.

Agreed. Running QBs need to figure out how to pick teams apart with their arm. No one's ability to run the ball as a huge weapon lasts. That's my issue with Josh, some people may not agree, but if you take away Josh's running ability or it declines considerably in 3-4 years once he's taking so many more hits, is his passing ability even remotely good enough to carry a team while he's eating up roughly 20% of the salary cap by himself? Is a mid to high 80s QB Rating and a bottom 10 completion percentage really enough to demand top dollar? I don't think so. But maybe that's just me. Secondarily, I totally agree with you that everyone wants a franchise QB, I just think they're going to be unbelievably rare in the league going forward. Looking forward as far as I can, I don't know who the elite QBs in the NFL are going to be once Brady, Big Ben, Rodgers and Brees all are retired within 2-3 years. You'll have Mahomes, Watson below him, and then a grand canyon sized void between the elite guys and the next 20 best QBs in the league who are essentially all inter-changeable in my eyes. Like if I was Dallas, I would 100% cut bait on Dak and draft someone new. They'll have a great line, elite RB, elite receivers and a very good defense. It's the perfect situation to walk into so I can't understand why on earth they consider paying the 10-15th best QB $35-40 mil and bury themselves under the cap. Kansas City on the other hand is in a completely different position. They need to lock Mahomes up for all the money because he's shown he can make it work with rookie receivers around him. I get that everyone wants the franchise QB, I just don't think people should talk themselves into making bad decisions when there's so much money involved.

For 5.9 yards per attempt. He had just over 100 yards passing through 3 quarters and did absolutely nothing but check the ball down for minimal gains.

I get what you're saying, I just think the premise is totally flawed. Potential rarely materializes at the NFL level. I mean, how many big, strong, athletic QBs have been picked in the first round of the draft over the past 20 years who went on to never reach their potential and bust? A ton. I think ultimately the NFL is dominated by egos. There are egos on the field, on the sidelines and in the press box. For the egos in the press box, nothing gets them off more by buying in on a guy because of his potential because if they hit you look like a genius. Everyone wants to think they're the best/smartest in the league at their job. I've maintained for years that the NFL constantly tries to over complicate things and the result is often terrible. The changing rules of the game I think play the biggest part in why I think this process is becoming more and more easy for QBs to come in and play relatively well immediately. This isn't like 1985 where guys were expected to come into the NFL and sit on the bench for a couple years because the college game was so far behind the pro game. NFL and college passing concepts are more alike than ever and as a result I think it's easier to find a serviceable QB who can post a QB Rating between 85 and 94 and lead a really good supporting cast to a 10 win season. Those guys might never be elite but they more than earn their pay cheque while on a rookie deal. The problems for most teams seem to start when a team has a QB making $35 mil/year and other parts of the roster get stripped down to accommodate that contract. Consistently. The following week he was a train wreck.

Exactly. Dallas has the 17th pick and this was a deep free agent group of QBs. Some teams definitely need a QB, but maybe they can make a play to move up for Justin Herbert or Bryce Love. Either of those guys at $5 mil/year seems like a better option than Prescott at $40 mil/year, IMO. Beat good teams.

I think the issue is that these guys look good when those players are on a rookie deal making $4-8 mil year with elite teams surrounding them. The last few years has pretty clearly shown that when you pay these guys $35 mil/year and have to start sacrificing other parts of your roster to make the numbers work, most of these teams take a step backwards because ultimately the QB that they gave the huge contract to didn't actually deserve it. 6 of the 10 highest paid QBs in the NFL last year didn't make the playoffs. That's crazy to me.

Excellent post. I agree with all points. I think what people are failing to realize is that every single "franchise QB" who has lasted in this league for more than 10 years has done so because they are an elite pocket passer. The guys who run all break down because the NFL is such a violent sport. Concussions, knee injuries, you name it, being 6'5, 240 might help but eventually mobile QBs who make a lot of their plays with their feet will get hurt. Cam was amazing early in his career despite having a QB rating consistently in the mid 80s. As a passer he was never very good, but his legs and his ability to put points on the board in the red zone made him a top QB. However, in time the hits took their toll and with reduced mobility and a reduced willingness to lay his body on the line, he wasn't good enough as a passer, which is why he's currently still on the free agent market looking for a job. This is my concern with Josh. If he's remains a bottom 10 passer in most or all NFL passing categories, do you re sign him? I don't think you do.

I see very few "franchise" QBs across the NFL who can carry a franchise while making $35-40 million a season. If we could give Josh an extension at say... $20 mil/season, I'd do that, but I don't see how it makes any sense to pay a guy top money when they're not a top player. I feel the same way about the contracts given to Wentz, Prescott, Goff, Cousins, etc. I think those mega contracts for guys who aren't truly "elite" are more detrimental to their teams than just trying their luck on a different rookie QB.

Then you use the franchise tag and keep Allen for an extra year. The Bills should be drafting a QB next year, either in round 1 or 2. Then they'd have two years to evaluate that guy on the bench in practice during Josh's 4th and 5th seasons. Josh may miss time and he may even get on the field. At the end of Josh's 5th year, the rookie will have 2-3 years left on their contract and you'll have a really good idea if they're as good as Josh. If they are close to as good, install them as the starting QB and begin plans to draft another QB. Again, this isn't about necessarily finding someone much better. It's much more about not paying a mediocre starting QB $35-40 million a season, and using that money on other parts of the roster.

I'm not quoting the whole post to save muddying the overall post. A few thoughts. 1. I think the age of the "franchise QB" is coming to an end. How many elite QBs have come into the NFL over the past 10 years? I'd honestly say Patrick Mahomes is the only one. Andrew Luck was heading that direction where he could single handedly carry the Colts, but he retired early due to a string of bad injuries. Deshaun Watson may also be heading that direction, although I think he still needs to prove he doesn't have durability issues. I get finding an elite QB is hard, but for the most part the NFL's elite QBs from roughly 2005 to 2015 were essentially the same 5-6 guys (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Rivers, Roethlisberger). Some other guys might have had single great seasons, but those guys were consistently at the top of the league every year. Now, it's some of those same names, plus Mahomes and Watson. Beyond them I think there's a massive drop off in talent, which isn't worth paying the market rate for. 2. Cam Newton is a better version of Josh Allen. Cam was an elite player early in his career because he was an elite runner. He was better at everything when compared to Allen. Cam's problems set in when the injuries inevitably took their toll. Because he never evolved as a pocket passer, when he could no longer run effectively he was no longer an effective QB. This is where I worry Josh will inevitably wind up. Right now he's a weapon playing QB. A big part of him being dangerous is his mobility and willingness to get tough yards, particularly in the red zone. Eventually that will disappear. He won't be 28 years old and trying to run over linebackers and run away from Defensive Ends. Ben Roethlisberger was never the same runner, but he was mobile. He evolved into an elite passer which offset the decline of his mobility over the course of his career. Eventually he didn't need to run around the pocket making guys miss. He could just read the defense and make the right reads and throw with accuracy. As a passer Josh needs to improve by leaps and bounds to offset the inevitable decline in his ability to scramble. He needs to go from having a QB rating in the 80s to having one in the mid to high 90s, otherwise he'll never achieve being a "franchise QB". 3. I think it's wrong to sign a non top 10 QB to a top 10 QB's contract. My approach would be simple. Draft a QB in the 1st or 2nd round every 3-4 years. Keep a guy on your roster with at least one year of experience on a rookie contract and surround them with an elite defense and elite offensive skill players. If you truly find an elite guy like Mahomes, Rodgers or Luck, go "all in" on what is truly an ELITE player and pay them elite money. Don't settle for a 10-20 passer and pay them top 5 money because you're scared of the alternative. You draft a QB every 4-5 years. Always have two 1st/2nd round QBs on your roster at the same time, constantly having a plan B who you can get some info on.

I think they'd look for that later on. That type of player can usually be found in rounds 4-5.

Society will adjust and people will go back to work taking extra precautions and wearing masks, but I don't see mass gatherings at amusement parks or sporing events returning anytime soon. I think games will be played in empty stadiums because the idea of having 60,000+ people in a stadium together, elbow to elbow for 3-4 hours seems like an absolutely terrible idea.

I can't see them taking a QB or Linebacker. I think we probably target OL or DL.

I don't think this really addresses what I was talking about. I'm saying, would you rather have Jared Goff and a replacement level receiver or a QB on a rookie contract like Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, Mitch Trubisky or Sam Darnold AND Julio Jones/Deandre Hopkins? I'm trying to say that I don't think there's enough of a difference between pretty much any of the highest earning QBs in the league like Goff, Wentz, Prescott, etc and a 1st rounder on a rookie deal to justify paying the veteran guy an extra $25-30 mil a year after their rookie deal runs out. I think the rookie QB with the exponentially better weapon (could be any other position, I'm just making a very basic example) is probably what I would opt to do. I guess I'm essentially arguing that these QBs seem to peak in year 2 or 3 and don't get a whole lot better after that, even though they're being paid like they're the type of elite QBs we saw from 2000-2015. Just my two cents.

The NFL is a copycat league. Eventually an NFL GM will start playing "money ball" with the QB position, have success and other GMs will follow along. In a league where "top" starters get $35 mil a year and mediocre starters get $8-10 mil/year, despite there being hardly much of a difference between them. Eventually teams will figure out that they're better off saving that extra $25 mil and using to sign another top player at a different position.