jrober38

This isn't really true. A lot of QBs projected to go in the 1st round over the past few years went much later than expected. In a year when there are 4 really good QB prospects, and a couple really good free agent options, no one is going to reach for Rudolph when it's all said and done. He's the same calibre of prospect as Landry Jones or Bryce Petty, who were both 4th round picks. Roughly seven NFL teams need a QB, and with Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, Allen, Cousins, Keenum, Bridgewater, Bradford and possibly Foles all being options, no one is going to go out of their way to draft Rudolph whose ceiling is quite low.

61.4% his Junior year with a 9.0 YPA.

6 QBs aren't going in the first round. Rudolph is a 3rd/4th round calibre prospect.

Every year people talk up mediocre college QBs as if they have a good chance of becoming a solid NFL QB. Reality is that it's unbelievably hard to find good QBs in the NFL. Almost always, the guys who succeed in the NFL were the guys who dominated college football while they were there. They usually elevated the program they were at and made the supporting cast around them better. The guys who bust are usually the guys who look great in a pair of shorts, but were nothing more than mediocre college QBs. EJ Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Paxton Lynch, Josh Freeman; these were all mediocre college QBs who did nothing to elevate their team, but because they all "look" like a franchise QB, scouts were willing to ignore the game tape and fantasize over what might be if every part of their development was perfect. Every single one of them busted. Big, strong, athletic, "throwers" of the football never succeed in the NFL. You need to look for guys who can "pass" the ball, and that's not Allen.

For the one millionth time, completion percentage has nothing to do with accuracy. Accuracy is the ability to throw the ball to a spot consistently. All good NFL QBs can do that. Allen, like EJ Manuel, has scattershot accuracy. Sometimes he misses high, sometimes he's low, sometimes he's in front of the target, and sometimes he's behind it. He misses all over the place, just like EJ did. There's no predicting where he'll miss, which makes fixing his accuracy nearly impossible. Guys with that flaw never succeed in the NFL. You can't teach someone the fundamentals of throwing a football once they're in the NFL.

Way to go out on a limb.

Jim Kelly played in college 35 years ago. Assuming we don't know is ignorance. The history of QBs with accuracy problems who failed in the NFL is extremely long over the past 20 years. It's not a flaw that modern day QBs overcome. Predicting QB success isn't hard. Just focus on the guys who completely dominated college football and ignore the guys who were middle of the pack QBs in the Mountain West Conference.

I don't care about the draft sites because they're wrong all the time. Guys with accuracy issues in college, don't go on to have success in the NFL. That's all I care about. You can't be an erratic passer in the Mountain West Conference and expect to be anything more than a long shot to be a competent NFL starter. Guys with accuracy issues in college almost always go on to be colossal busts in the NFL. The throwing windows are too small and the defenders are too fast. The correlation between inaccuracy and being a bad NFL QB is almost perfect. People get wrapped up in Allen's arm strength, but reality is you don't need a cannon to be a successful NFL QB. Every single top NFL QB, aside from Cam Newton, relies on their accuracy to get the job done. That's the thing they all have in common, and Allen simply doesn't possess adequate accuracy to be an NFL QB.

Stafford's scouting report disagrees: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860 "Consistent with excellent accuracy to all levels of the field. ... Consistent placing the deep out on the far shoulder of his receiver, away from the defender. ... Has good deep accuracy and trajectory." Matt Ryan: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matt-ryan?id=310 "Very accurate passer when flushed out of the pocket, but has the strength to step up and absorb punishment... Very good game manager who has the pinpoint accuracy to put the ball into tight areas and keeps the receivers in their routes, doing a nice job of hitting them out of the breaks..." Cam I'll concede. His fundamentals were all over the place in college and he still struggles with it in the NFL.

Accuracy and completion percentage aren't the same thing. None of them were inaccurate college passers. Inaccurate college QBs include: EJ Manuel, Jake Locker, Josh Freeman, Vince Young and JP Losman.

When was the last time an inaccurate college QB succeeded in the NFL?

It's shocking to me. For anyone to convince themself that Allen can be a franchise QB, you have to completely ignore the game tape. His positives are limited to size and arm strength. As you said, who cares that he can throw 65 yards. That's not a throw NFL QBs are asked to makes. If you turn on the film, there is nothing there that says he should be anything more than a 4th round pick. He doesn't possess any of the traits you see from top NFL QBs. In a day of advanced analytics, there's no argument that can be made that says Josh Allen is going to be top QB in the NFL. Whoever picks him will be fired in a year or two.

That's what I'd do. If I'm the Browns, I sign Cousins, draft Barkley 1st overall and Nelson #4th overall, and use the rest of my picks on the defense.

Agreed. They're literally the same prospect. It's mind boggling that some Bills fans want this guy. Same height Same weight Same mobility Big arms Terrible accuracy Terrible awareness Can't throw with touch Doesn't throw with anticipation

You're describing the exact reasons EJ Manuel and Jake Locker went in round 1.

No he's not. He's something similar to Landry Jones or Bryce Petty. Both of them went in the 4th round. He doesn't do anything really well, and accordingly his ceiling is quite low.

Agreed. It's unfathomable. From NFL.com. Allen's Negatives: Weaknesses Never had completion rate higher than 56 percent in either season as a starter Accuracy diminishes greatly when he's forced to move his feet May have too much hero in his blood Tries to overcome obstacles with arm talent and makes poor decisions because of it Takes too many chances with low percentage throws Needs to play smarter and place higher value on the ball Fastball pitcher whose touch could use improvement short Will baby the deep throws at times Field-reading is spotty Needs to be more patient in allowing combo routes to develop Would benefit by trading some velocity for better timing Anticipatory throws don't seem to come naturally Pre-snap game plan appears unfocused Breaks from pocket without cause throwing off his timing with receivers Doesn't keep feet "throw-ready" when sliding in pocket Frequently defaults to off-platform throws when there is time to set feet and deliver That's simply not the description of a future NFL franchise QB.

Rudolph will be there in round 3. Ferguson in round 5.

If we draft Allen I'll throw up. We'd be better off just bringing back EJ Manuel or asking Jake Locker to come out of retirement.

I like Mayfield. He's the most accurate passer in the draft and accuracy trumps everything else when it comes to QBs.

Oh! He looked good throwing the ball in a pair of shorts with no defenders on the field at the combine? I guess his accuracy problems are cured. LMAO EJ Manuel looked good at the Senior Bowl and Combine as well. Then he stepped on an NFL field and his horrendous accuracy came right back, as is the case for every single QB I mentioned who looked great in a pair of shorts, but never displayed adequate accuracy in live games when things actually matter. First round QBs bust more often than they succeed. I couldn't care less where draft sites have him rated. Draft sites who project guys in the 1st round are wrong more often than not.

Why would the evaluation of a QB change after the combine?

The Browns are guaranteed one of the top 3 QBs. They're not guaranteed Barkley, and probably won't get him unless they pick him #1 overall. If the Browns walk away with Barkley and Mayfield, with Josh Gordon back healthy, they could be pretty good next year if they invest all their remaining picks on the defense.

Landry? His measurables suggest he's a can't miss prospect as a 3-4 outside linebacker.

Matt Stafford's last year at Georgia he completed 61.4% of his throws. Scouts never questioned his accuracy. Jay Cutler's last year at Vanderbilt he completed 59.1% of his throws. Scouts never questioned his accuracy. Josh Allen completed 56.3% of his throws this year in the Mountain West. Every scout openly questions his accuracy. Guys with real accuracy concerns, like Allen, EJ Manuel, Jake Locker, Josh Freeman, Vince Young, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, etc, never work out in the NFL. Like Allen, they can all throw the ball a mile, but they don't have the necessary accuracy to keep the chains moving on a consistent basis.