jrober38

Elite NFL QBs have elite accuracy. Very few of them had the elite "tools" Allen brings to the table, so I don't understand why people drool over guys like him every year. NFL.com's assessment disagreed. "Consistent with excellent accuracy to all levels of the field." http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/matthew-stafford?id=79860

Cool. I don't think pro days matter at all. Running around in shorts with no defense has zero impact on how a guy actually plays football against real competition. Pro days are an opportunity to sucker in stupid scouts who fall in love with physical attributes.

I don't see it. Stafford was a lot more polished coming out of college. No one ever questioned his accuracy. He's got Farve's arm and the same hero, but I don't think he's the same type of play maker. Most big, strong, bazooka armed QBs have great tools but don't know how to do them. I think that's the case with Allen. The game tape doesn't lie.

Again - why does a scripted workout against no defense without pads matter. Year after year we hear about how guys fixed something at their pro day, then they get to the NFL and they always revert back to their old ways.

Allen is a pretty good comparison to Kyle Boller or Jake Locker. Both were huge busts.

No one should put any stock in the pro day. Scripted throws they've been practising for weeks against no defense and some people legitimately seem to think they matter. I think they'd absurd.

Why are pro days still a thing people care about?

Josh Allen's weaknesses aren't weaknesses for any top QBs. Every elite NFL QB has elite accuracy, and it's Allen's worst attribute.

Dude, you're literally making all the same excuses people made for Kyle Boller when he went from 3rd or 4th round prospect to top 20 pick. The same ones we made when we picked EJ Manuel 6 years ago. Read up on Boller - he had a great senior bowl, and then an outstanding combine and pro day. He supposedly threw a football threw the uprights from mid field while kneeling. Scouts left the practice drooling over his arm and mobility. Then he put the pads on, and the Kyle Boller that everyone loved in shorts and a t shirt went back to being the Kyle Boller that wasn't actually very good at playing football. He was eaten alive in the NFL because despite being able to throw the ball 80 yards, he couldn't consistently hit receivers within 10 yards of the LOS.

His downside is that he's out of the league in 5-6 years or nothing more than a training camp flier by the end of their rookie deal like each of Manuel, Boller, Losman and Freeman. People get so wrapped up in arm strength, but they completely ignore that the NFL is a precision passing league where 75-80% of throws are within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Knowing that, why does it even matter if a guy can throw the ball 80 yards. When does that skill ever actually present itself as an opportunity on a football field?

LOL Who the hell cares about where a guy is projected. Matt Barkley was supposed to be a top 10 pick. He went in the 4th round. Bryce Petty was supposed to be a 2nd round pick; he went in the 4th round. Where arm chair GMs project a guy to go is about as useless a piece of info as their is. All that matters is where a guy actually gets picked on draft day. I bring those things up because their pros and cons as prospects are essentially the same. They all had good size. They all had outstanding college production. They all had limited mobility. They all had mediocre arms. They all had limited experience reading the field. Aside from Dalton who was pretty average, all of the guys you named had one elite thing going for them, whether it be accuracy, arm strength or mobility; they all had at least one trait that was well above average if not elite. Rudolph doesn't have elite accuracy (his deep ball is very good, short and intermediate throws are less consistent). He doesn't have elite mobility. He doesn't have elite arm strength. He's just a guy. You might love him but I see a guy who is going to be nothing more than a backup in the NFL. He was a good college QB who played in a super QB friendly system surrounded by really good NFL talent. Maybe he'll be really good, but I'm not betting on it. I don't see any difference between him and the majority of NFL prospects who never amount to anything.

He's the same size as every guy I mentioned. Most of them are better athletes than him (better athletic tests, better forty times). His arrm strength is outstanding, but it was the biggest plus for Josh Freeman, JP Losmand and Kyle Boller as well. Kyle Boller could throw a football 80 yards as well. JP Losman and Freeman could also throw it a mile. Like Allen, the problem was they all had horrible accuracy. Every year size, arm strength and athleticism coax scouts into ignoring the game tape, and every time they do they wind up picking a bust.

What does Allen do better than any of them? I'm struggling to see the difference.

Josh Allen will get drafted in round 1 for the same reasons EJ Manuel, Josh Freeman, Jake Locker, Kyle Boller and JP Losman were picked in round 1, and he'll fail miserably for the same reasons they all failed miserably.

Landry and Petty both got past the Patriots numerous times so I don't see how you can draw that conclusion. Belichick likes guys who have elite accuracy in the short and intermediate passing game. That's what Brady is, and that's what Garoppolo offers. That's the most important thing they value in QBs because their offense is predicated around getting the ball out accurately and on time so that receivers can run after the catch. Rudolph is best at chucking the ball down the field, so I don't think there's a fit there at all. Rudolph would have made sense to Bruce Arians. No idea if there's anyone else left in the NFL who runs something similar.

Exactly. The top QBs in NFL history for the most part were guys who didn't blow the doors off with their athletic ability. The majority of Hall of Fame passers are smart, cerebral players with pin point accuracy. There are exceptions, but they are extremely rare. The best QBs of the modern era (last 15 years) are Tom Brady (no mobility, mediocre arm strength, pin point precision), Peyton Manning (no mobility, decent arm, pin point precision), Drew Brees (limited mobility, subpar size, decent arm, pin point precision), Aaron Rodgers (good mobility, elite arm, mediocre size, pin point precision). The common trait when you look at any elite QB who is more than a flash in the pan is elite accuracy, and Allen simply doesn't have it.

I don't think he does have a high ceiling. Elite QBs have elite accuracy. Brady, Montana, Marino, Kelly, Brees, Manning, etc, etc, etc - they're all elite passers because they had elite accuracy. Accuracy is Allen's worst trait. If he's missing the thing all the elite guys had, how can his ceiling be as high?

Timmy Chang and Colt Brennan disgree. I don't think he was elite. He was a good Big XII QB similar to Landry Jones or Bryce Petty. They weren't elite either, and were both 4th round picks. I agree that none of Rosen, Darnold or Allen were elite either. Not sure any of them are a slam dunk, and I think Allen is going to be a colossal bust.

He doesn't have any elite traits. Aside from size, everything he does is just average.

Again, no one ever questioned Matt Ryan's accuracy. For the 100th time; accuracy and completion percentage aren't the same thing. Reality is that Ryan carried a very mediocre BC team to an 11-3 record his Senior year with a 10th end of year AP Ranking. They punched way above their weight while he was there despite featuring zero NFL talent and competing in the ACC.

Such a limited argument. Hard to take the guy seriously when all he talks about is completion percentage.

I can't find the link, but I've seen each QBs adjusted completion percentage and Allen is still at the bottom of the barrel. Mayfield and Jackson had a much higher percentage of drops.

Bigger - yes Stronger - who knows Better Leader - unlikely given McCarron's college career More Accurate - debatable Rudolph looks like a mid round prospect. He doesn't have any elite traits.

He's not a first round pick. He doesn't have any elite traits and is actually pretty average across the board. Looks like a long term backup.

It's unbelievable how people vouch for these QBs every year. It's like the scene in Money Ball where the old scouts are gushing about how a prospects swing looks, how the bat sounds when he makes contact, etc, and Brad Pitt responds by asking, if he's a good hitter, then why isn't he a good hitter? That's how I view Allen. I don't care that he looks like a franchise QB or that he can throw a football 80 yards (a completely irrelevant trait in the NFL considering no QB is ever required to throw the ball 80 yards). I care about how well he "passes" the football, and he falls way short in that category due to his very poor accuracy.