shoshin

Yes. I’m looking forward to seeing how we do this. The healthcare system can’t exist for long in its current state. No offense intended but this was discussed upstream. That is an anonymous poster on an open publication website. He makes a good point about the operation of the virus but we don’t yet know how to counteract it with treatment. Doctors have already observed and been treating this as an oxygen issue. The ventilators are a last resort, which is why once you get to that, your survival rate is very low.

That’s an interesting data point and I’m sure you’ve seen the ones that run counter about how many Covid deaths we are missing. I have no doubt that the massive uptick in Covid cases is causing sloppier classification than usual. But even *some* sloppiness can’t make this look like the flu.

I'm not sure if this is covered here but our company went through the PPP exercise. We have had to change our application almost completely twice. The government is changing the rules and requirements about as fast as it can. It is not easy to spend 2T in a hurry and I'm not complaining, just explaining. All the changes made sense. At first our 1099 employees were part of our calculation, then they weren't because the gov wants them to apply directly. There was a question of how to backup our payroll data for the bank to have an accurate record. Which months to include. I could go on. I'm surprised the $$ is hitting people's accounts already from the PPP given how fast the guidelines are changing. If we'd gotten our app in a day before, I think we would have gotten all our 1099 people covered, and these people are now not part of the PPP for companies, though they should be able to apply themselves. When I spoke to my banker yesterday, he sounded like his head was in a vice. This is a very senior guy who is running around helping businesses fill out forms now. The big banks are a cluster on this. I was lucky to avoid Wells Fargo (my usual bank) and get help from a small local bank. Wells had a notice up on their website as early as Saturday telling businesses to work with other banks because they weren’t yet ready. I should have screen shot it.

And me too. I admitted as much. I thought this was a China problem, a small issue, an issue we could control, all the stages of denial right up until the Jazz didn't go on the court. I'm waiting for that myself. We need to hear the plan so we can predict the next year. I don't have it, and await its reveal. Pence, Tony and the crew are working on it, of that I'm sure.

“your chances of dying from ...the flu are much greater than catching, or dying from, this disease” Of course people were minimizing it over and over by comparing it to the flu. Naive or selective memory to think otherwise. That chart draws a slashing line through that talk.

I like any post that cites Contagion as a source!

You see something different in that chart besides the total number of deaths. Yes people die from the flu. Maybe as many people die from Covid-19 as usually die from the flu in this wave. It's been said over and over in this thread, often to try to minimize Covid-19. When you said, "How dare you post anything that even remotely makes comparisons between COVID-19 and the flu?" it was a defense of people who make that comparison. It's not good logic. Comparing Covid-19 and the flu is like comparing a tiger and an orange because they reflect a similar wavelength of light. OK I guess but not insightful. We are talking near each other but not quite in sync. My post was a shot at the many people who keep comparing the two like it adds to a discussion. No arguing that but that's just one of the numbers this thing is racking up that make it so different from the flu.

Even the Surgeon General said it was just another flu. And people here early on were citing flu statistics to show how much worse the flu was. People say things like, "How dare you post anything that even remotely makes comparisons between COVID-19 and the flu?" to make fun of people who were saying you shouldn't compare the flu and covid. I would have been in the club of people thinking this was not a big deal right up until the Jazz didn't play that night. Not that we needed the chart at this point, but that chart ends the discussion. And death rate alone does not tell the entire story. We are shut down. Hospitals are IGNORING millions of non-covid patients to deal with this. The number of deaths is a stat but it is not the one we should rely on to say, "See, it's just like the flu. We overreacted." If we get a death toll that rivals a flu season, it will have once at great expense.

I forget who was here saying that he lives in a rural area and doesn't need to abide by wearing a mask. Rural America is just behind in timing on this, but it's rising now too. Really sad to see this stat today. ####. If you slide the deaths stat back, it's a similar trend. And the confirmed cases is not, but I bet that's just because of fewer tests being available.

I have yet to see a plan, though I believe it’s coming and will involve aggressive tracking of contacts if it is done properly. If not, roll a bomb into the economy and healthcare system that makes the current situation look like a sparkler.

Whenever someone compares covid to the flu on here, you can just link this chart. But besides that, they are the same.

Geography is one way to approach the process. Most of the U.S. has in fact been little affected by the virus. Depending on what “a few” and “reopening” mean, that could be excellent news. The administration needs to push aggressively to end the shutdowns that have unemployed millions, destroyed countless businesses, devastated the financial markets and put the economy–and the lives of hundreds of millions–in a state of suspended animation. https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/more-good-covid-19-news.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+powerlineblog%2Flivefeed+(Power+Line) If the federal government does not control shutdowns, it doesn’t get to decide when to reopen. it should take control so we reopen in a smart way but it seems like that won’t happen.

Testing positive can mean a lot of things, including just that there is remnant of whatever they are testing for in your system. It doesn’t mean you’re sick or contagious. Just to cut off a freak out prematurely. We will need a lot of tests On hand before we reopen.

What makes you think that? I see no reports that yesterday was just data catching up. Every state is up yesterday markedly. And this weekly blip is not something we see every week. It happened last week and then remained high. Looks like a real jump. Next few days data would have fall preciously to bear your speculation out. I hope so.

There is more to the good the WHO does than what happened here with COVID.

If you make it to the ventilator stage of this, your survival odds are 50%.

Big jump in deaths today. Going to be more than 50% higher than any other day so far in the US. Could double by the time the day ends. Already at 1900.

That process is an unsurprising cluster*****.

Not much evidence to go on from a video that could be from anytime by anyone doing something that might not be covid related. I am sure the Chinese are full of ***** though.

I am not arguing with you or him. It's just that our unqualified armchair speculation is based on someone else's unqualified armchair speculation. It's a triple-internet-hearsay logic error and I'm noting I'm guilty of it because I also was interested in his conclusions until I saw the website and the "author."

By the way, that article about the O2 is not a doctor. Just some guy posting under an anonymous username on a site that allows anyone to publish. So we might want to follow a better spirit guide on this path. I'm not saying he's totally wrong, but more just this: Who knows.

Yeah but you can't just reopen and tell the healthcare system to deal with it because it can't handle this wave and it won't handle another bigger one. We need to be really smart about re-opening. Not slow. Smart. For all the complaining about "taking away freedoms," look around yourselves people. We are all under house arrest with minimal privileges. Let's get back a lot more privileges and sacrifice a few others as we exit this phase so we can all get back to work.

It would just, if accurate, explain once of its lines of attack. It doesn't mean everyone going on oxygen would recover.

That's gibes with something I've heard that a lot of patients are on oxygen (not ventilators).

I think the thing to be mindful of here is that we can't just get back to work and assume the healthcare can handle what is happening now a second time. It's not that stockpiling ventilators and PPP will make this OK if the cases spike in August. We really will need a clear plan to make sure this is a single event.