shoshin

I would love for this to be true but even the “article” if you can call it that says: ”However, most of the data appears anecdotal and not obtained through official studies. In some cases, the name of the doctor is listed but no other information is included.” Anecdotes remain the only HCQ evidence.

Covered yesterday here too. Who knows. No one is getting this sitting in a bubble. Those people weren't taking mass transit but they may have had other community spread or had angels of death visitors.

I accept that more people will die as we reopen, the healthcare system will sag, and I accept that the economy in November will not have 3.5% unemployment of pre-Covid. But if we reopen now and are heading towards another shutdown in October, I will judge the people who pushed to reopen what turns out to be too soon harshly. The current reopening plans in many states don't impress me: GA, IL, PA come to mind. And I am watching Trump do very little to push the governors, which I will hold him accountable for if October is another shutdown month.

The shutting down timing I don't question. It could have been done earlier to great advantage but no one with a voice was calling for it so I don't blame us for missing the boat on that. Reopening at the right time is something I am watching with great interest as a voter. And I can only judge that by the consequences of those actions. I think NYS has the hardest job to reopen and following the CDC guidelines is the smart way to go. Some counties will feel cheated, people will B word, no one will be happy no matter what Cuomo does, but I can only judge the macro measures: (1) condition of healthcare, (2) deaths, (3) economy.

As a voter, I will hold politicians for the state of things in November. Meaning I will look at: (1) If it looks like we shut down and we should not have (2) If it looks like we came out of this too soon and we are paying a lives/economic price that made that decision look bad (especially if we are back in shutdown mode or appear headed there) If hospital systems are busy but doing OK, the economy is recovering well from where we are now, and signs are pointed up, that will reflect well on the decision-makers. I don't think any politician had an easy job here but I will definitely hold them accountable for the judgments they made on this after we see where we are in November, especially related to the shutdown and the reopening.

My brother and his gf work in Erie county hospitals. Doesn't sound like there's a bed shortage so I bet it's soon.

The states under your scenario are free to not follow the CDC guidelines, as it seems at least 49 are currently doing, but it's absurd to think the governor of GA getting a little scolding will do the right thing, or the IL/MI governors at the other extreme, without more action from Trump. So you understand, I think the issue of following those guidelines will be a bigger problem from the cautious states than the aggressive ones in the long run, but the patchwork approach could create a clusterF. You will not convince me that the GA Dept of Public Health can do better than the CDC. The CDC guidelines are open to plenty of interpretation that can be enacted at a state level. Dicker those details. Trump can beat the ***** out of them to at least follow the guidelines. You could have a debate about whether federalism is alive. It is, but only when it's convenient for the person arguing their current perspective. The commerce clause can be and is invoked all the time to override the 10th amendment.

Cuomo is Committed to following the Trump/ CDC guidelines, the following of which is sure to work. It is set up to not fail. You can go backwards if people break the recommendations but otherwise it works.

I know little about Slavitt except for his former title but he also agrees that states should be following the really good Trump/CDC guidelines. It's a tragedy that Trump is letting all these governors slide on this. And you can say "federalism" all you want and that's fine, but even the most ardent federalist knows that Trump knows how to use his bully pulpit and could do a lot of good bashing governors who don't follow his guidelines. A lot of good.

A nationally-led response would have stupid governors like IL and GA following the CDC guidelines. Instead will get the pee-in-the-pool scenarios.

I agree, but I think the people rattling the chains right now are right to rattle but doing so at the expense of not listening to the other side of this. Every state is reopening, and believe me when I tell you that I HATE/LOATHE my state's reopening criteria, but it's coming. Every governor sees what needs to be done--they just are afraid to misstep. Here in PA, our hospitals took an initial wave that was a little scary then dropped off. Gov. Wolf wants to be careful not to test that capacity again. I think he's being way too careful and I could argue for hours about how crappy his criteria are but I get it. He's trying to make sure we stay closed long enough that we NEVER have to step backwards into closure again. In GA, they opened spas and barbers first. That IMO is too far the other direction. I continue to really like the Trump/CDC reopening guidelines. They always made the most sense and I wish every state was following them. So far it seems only Cuomo is giving them serious weight.

And from yesterday's Statnews article, we should also have some caution between when something gets released and when you will get it. 7.5 billion people will want it and it will get prioritized to health care workers, essential workers, elderly/at risk...so don't expect you'll be getting it before 18 months to two years even if the research pans out and even if the vaccine works. The Gates incubators will help get it out faster but it still will take a while and rushing something like this will result in some unintended health issues that could delay wider distribution even as it's getting rolled out.

We have discussed this before. All the lockdowns infringe the right to assemble. The rights in the bill of rights often conflict with one another. The often quoted example being that free speech doesn't mean you can yell "fire" in a crowded movie theater. There are many other examples as well, including many rights that get infringed in times of national emergency. Moving from zero gatherings to gatherings of 50 is a step back from infringing people's right to assemble. I do not agree with his plan or staging. It's completely absurd to base the right to assemble in larger numbers on a vaccine, though I appreciate that his criteria has some leeway on the right to assemble.

He didn’t ban church gatherings. He’s banned all gatherings over 50, including the pagan animal sacrifice circle and atheist superiority complex group meeting. If you want to make this about how his rules are too Draconian, that makes sense. But don’t make it into something it’s not. He’s not targeted churches.

From the frontlines re meat shortage: Pretty normal Wegmans trip this morning. Nothing seemed short or missing.

Russia comes up so I doubt the deepstate msm Trump bashing will disappear from this thread but it would be nice.

Not just churches. Any 50 person gathering. They are in phase 2 of 5. 3 can start end of May. This is worse than the PA standard.

Isolation in Nyc does not resemble isolation in Orchard Park.

I was amplifying your point.

And anecdotally but over a population of 1M people, the average age of covid death in my county across some 500 people is 80.9. The average age of death is literally 2 years higher than the national average! I don't discount this but we can't keep treating 330M people the same. Friedman made this point a couple weeks ago and I echo it because it was so sensible. There are 2 groups of people: Those at risk (older and at risk) and the rest. Some of the rest will get sick and die and some of the at risk will be fine. But if we treat these groups in different ways, we can get the economy going.

You've not stuck to Trump's quote and now introduce some other theory. So come now yourself. There was an attempt to hijack $$ and legislation in many directions. Most unsuccessful. And NONE OF IT centered on Trump's multi-year shutdown quote. Every state has an opening plan.

Yes, I'm sure. There are the Twitter screamers probably and they are the wacky minority but every state's governor is talking about reopening plans. Trying to keep the comments in reality, not at the extremes. Trump is just playing to a segment of his base talking like that.

Could be. I am not sure if there's been a study yet about the contagiousness of asymptomatic people. I know there have been studies of prespymptomatic people, but that may be a different thing. Maybe @Hapless Bills Fan has some insight on this: I could be nuts to think there would be a difference between asypmtomatic and presymptomatic carriers.

Straw man argument is not productive. No one wants to close the country for years.

Your study was for HCWs who would wear a cloth mask in the VERY WORST place to wear a particle-trapping (on the inside) mask ALL DAY. It does not replicate the grocery store. Comparing the situation a HCW finds themselves in with your 30 minute trip to Wegmans is not a great data point. Also... "A limitation of this study is that we did not measure compliance with hand hygiene, and the results reflect self-reported compliance, which may be subject to recall or other types of bias. Another limitation of this study is the lack of a no-mask control group and the high use of masks in the controls, which makes interpretation of the results more difficult. In addition, the quality of paper and cloth masks varies widely around the world, so the results may not be generalisable to all settings. The lack of influenza and RSV (or asymptomatic infections) during the study is also a limitation, although the predominance of rhinovirus is informative about pathogens transmitted by the droplet and airborne routes in this setting. As in previous studies, exposure to infection outside the workplace could not be estimated, but we would assume it to be equally distributed between trial arms. " I will stick with the CDC recommendations.