shoshin

Your lecturing from on high notwithstanding, I am not going to ***** on older people and those with health risks because of who they are or lifestyle decisions. We need to reopen. Some people are at risk through natural causes or lifestyle, and we need to take precautions to keep them as safe as we reasonably can. New Yorkers, liberals, conservatives, young, old, fit, obese—let’s try to do right by Americans eh?

The big northern cities will be the hardest to reopen. Public transit and tight living will also help them get to immunity sooner. But those places are going to be hot for a while.

I don't think we are going to see the 25, 20, 15, 10, or even 5% in the general population for a long time. I like NYS's metrics. I was not familiar with how they were gating the reopening except that it was similar to the Trump CDC guidelines:

UK getting back to work.

You can't believe anything Trump says but he does say stuff like the above. And many other examples of praise for Xi.

Covid-19 cases and deaths were not anecdotal at the time of the shutdown--they were exponentially rising and we had no real idea how high that rise would go-- and we all knew the economic consequences would be dire. That's why Trump initially wanted the shutdown to be for 15 days. Then based on evidence (even more cases and deaths), not anecdote, he pushed that goal out. It seems like you're making some argument that because HCQ has nothing but anecdote supporting it, we should not have shut down the country because the evidence of Covid-19 was anecdotal. You're not making a coherent point. Trump loves the guy but I don't get it. He's no friend of the world and when the dust settles here, a lot of countries will turn a harsh eye to China. ***************** This model, one of the several the CDC approves of, has done a good job predicting things in the last month. Cutting to the chase, it predicts 190K dead by early August and long rate of steady cases and deaths through the summer (a flattened curve). https://covid19-projections.com/

This is the Google/Verily Project Baseline Covid study. If you're symptom free and live near a testing site, you can get a free test. http://projectbaseline.com/study/covid-19

She was driving while wearing her mask? I'm sorry for her but umm...

There's actual evidence that the shutdown is destroying the economy. If it was anecdotal only, it would be questionable.

This is the google project. Doing lots of testing and cost is free if you’re symptom free. http://projectbaseline.com/study/covid-19

I have not seen a controlled double blind study supporting it inspire of its widespread use. The big properly done studies have shown no advantage. It’s a bummer. I had higher hopes for this than the Pepcid studies but I’d be happy with either of these widespread drugs showing a huge advantage. I could care less if the advice on HCQ came from OJ by way of KJU who read it in Hitler’s diary. Good news is good news.

It’s a great treatment for malaria and I guess lupus. No one is opening up the country based on what happens in NYC alone. What’s right for NYC is not what’s right for Batavia. And Batavia will open a long time before and in a less restrictive way than the most population dense place in our country. So let’s not carve NYC out of the statistics and then take some kind of pride in the fudged numbers to show how great America is doing, which was the premise of that article (we are doing average compared to many places). Milan counts for Italy. Madrid for Spain. London for UK. We don’t exclude NYC because it has the most deaths and then applaud ourselves.

It's not "skewing." NYC is America just like Milan is Italy. We've come so far since the way we were together on 9-11, when no American would have thought, "Those 3000 people don't statistically count because they are downstate."

It’s just one state but one thing that has puzzled me is why other states peaked in deaths and went down kind of rapidly while PA did not. It’s been really slow to decline in deaths even as cases and %positive cases have both been in marked decline. A really thorough treatment of PA nursing homes and what has gone wrong here. I think someone has posted that their loved ones are in a long term care facility so that may be of interest. On the numbers, the bottom line is that in the last month, nursing home deaths grew at a rate of 4X compared to those outside nursing homes in PA. This could be for many reasons, but a particularly damning one is that Levine/Wolf didn’t enact a specific plan they had circulated in mid March. Neighboring states enacted similar plans and have had much more success.

Here is the order. It can be used to treat Covid-19 if approved by the fda or as part of a trial. https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/no-20210-continuing-temporary-suspension-and-modification-laws-relating-disaster-emergency

NY didn’t “ban” use of HCQ. “HCQ News” seems like a superb source. Let’s imagine that Texas had run as many tests per capita as NY and not 1/4 as many. And let’s say that drove the active cases up by I don’t know, say, 200% to be conservative. Those graphs suddenly would look a lot more similar no? Any other flaws in this data set occur to you? Like at least 7. Come on man!

My friend and I do consider you that in our weird internet way, you have been talking about the prevalence of this for weeks based on some highly flawed data points. I find each of those data points promising but we need a study like this to give them credence. Ideally we’d test 2M people but that’s not realistic. 10,000 is a massive study to structure well. It won’t be a final word but you’d be hard pressed to put together a study of this magnitude in a shorter amount of time. Take what you can get! You can have the last word. I think we’re dickering over a small point. I think you’re happy to see a real study like this happening. I know I am. The grocery store sample of 200 people isn’t good enough to make policy.

You just don’t seem to understand how hard it is to craft a scientific study. Comparing what the NIH is doing to NY’s patient testing during the pandemic gives it away. 10,000 is a big study.

NY is the only one of those on a massive death count decline though IL shows a decent decline too. PA’s deaths are stubbornly flat.

Florida is doing better. That’s great. So is New York. That’s great. I don’t want to weaponize good news. I’m just happy to see it.

If you can find a bigger well-run sample size that we can get results in while they still matter, let me know. This is a pretty massive study and given how excited people got about steely eyed taser testers, we should welcome any big study. The other data points on prevalence have all been smallish and uncontrolled dips in the pond of humanity. With any luck, we can get this data in 4-6 weeks.

Mentioned a few days ago that in my county it’s 80.9!!!

The cdc official stats update very slowly. They are much more meticulous in counting deaths than the sites like worldometer. So you can’t look at the CDC’s more recent data as complete. It is accurate as far as it’s been counted but it’s not all counted. Looking at the CDC for demographic trends is the best.

Not vaccinating kids is bad. No analysis needed.

I want Florida, Georgia, Michigan, and New York to come out of this well. We are a united country if we act like it. Eff the big city, Eff the hicks is no way to act especially in a pandemic. Whatever happened so far is going to take less unity than the unity required to dig out of the hole we are in now.