shoshin

I already take D and zinc. But not because a back doctor says to. Monday’s numbers were up from Sunday and Mondays are always low. Tuesday to Thursday will show if we are finally seeing a slowdown that was the result of the shutdown. And in a month or so we will see the effect of reopening. Hopefully weather and distancing will keep things level. Either way as long as hospitals can handle it, we need to reopen.

It is a literature review in pre publication. There is no peer review...except for the 27 studies it cites! I will stick with the leading experts in the field and the CDC. The chiropractor is a source too.

A chiropractor who's an expert on anti-viral treatments. Cool beans.

I'm not sure it's needless. We cannot stay closed. Most states are ready for some reopening, albiet cautiously and with good distancing guidelines in place. I look at Philly, Boston, Chicago and obviously NYC and see a different situation calling for some stricter rules but most of the US doesn't need to be in lockdown anymore and should try to open up and see what's happening. GA is the test case at one extreme and lots of more rural NE areas are another, non-NE cities are another, and the NE cities are another. It's an experiment for sure. We don't know how it will go.

I think we are doing fine. But our "fine" is maybe a little above average compared to other countries. In no way are we kicking ass compared to other countries. It's OK--I just expect us to be more united and more effective than we have been. Looking at only our share of the preventable blame, it was a failing leading up to this in preparing for a pandemic, a failure to take early action that would have made a big difference (no politician recognized this so I don't lay that blame at Trump...but still we did not react when we needed to), and currently a failure to implement an aggressive recovery program to get us the hell back open quickly and safely. I expect chaos in an unpredicted pandemic--but what we are seeing is a cut above that and it leaves us looking average. "We're doing better than Italy and Spain" is not a banner I'm proud to carry.

Villainizing capitalists and scientists used to be the exclusive domain of the left. Scientists are not priests. You can test their hypotheses. The mask research predates this pandemic and isn’t about supporting government control over you wearing a mask. It was research into the effectiveness of masks to prevent disease spread in public places and it's as close as you can get to definitive: Masks make a significant difference. You can have the last word. If you respond with a scientific assertion, I'll be happy to carry the conversation forward.

Anti-science is now way to go through life. Since you read the paper and source material in the last 30 minutes, care to explain the scientific failings of the study and its sources? Trump says to wear masks and the studies back that up. Trump says take HCQ and the studies of that show nothing good. Trump promoted Remdesivir and that early research appears to support it as effective. Trump wanted to shut down the country and now wants to open it. I agreed with both decisions. It’s not about the messenger. On one of the above topics, there’s no basis.

Except it’s not. No Twitter link here. Just a multi-institution multi MD/PhD paper reviewing other studies of multiple PhD papers.

Article about the effectiveness of the general public wearing masks. A literature study (a ton of articles reviewed, more than just a cherry-picked one) but focused on the effectiveness of you and me wearing even cloth masks (or better too) to stop the spread, not doctors and nurses in hospitals.

Yes you might. The newly infected may only just be hitting the case count. I'm noting that only time will tell how well we are doing. So far Georgia looks like it's on a slight downtrend over the last month, which is good. Germany does a way better job than us on testing and measuring and they have seen their rate of transmission (not necessarily case counts remarkably yet) go up starting this week 3 weeks after opening. They are now on a razor's edge where their R0 is creeping to the danger zone. Use them as the model of reopening.

No we are not all effed. There is plenty you and your neighbors can do to avoid spreading it. Wearing a mask is just one of those things. Washing and disinfecting your hands like a crazy person is a bigger thing. There is little reason or opportunity to get this if you act smartly, even once we reopen though you have to be 10x more diligent then. You do you. He will do him. I am not worried about these arguments at the fringes of masks and social shaming. If we are all mostly wearing masks (sometimes we all may forget), it will make a difference.

I like to believe we can do better than being number 13. On a per capita basis. After 4 months. In deaths. I want America to be the unqualified leader not the follower with caveats.

It sends the message, “We were wrong. This can affect anyone and we know masks are a good idea that we ignored before but now we will listen to the scientists.” Something like that. When Trump comes out in the mask tomorrow, it will be a good message to America to do as he does. That he’s not a “do as I say not as I do” kind of person.

The many strains of flu have been around for years and start from thousands of active cases. Are you comparing that with Covid, where the first case was in December and we will have 100,000 dead by the end of May? And those numbers are WITH social distancing.

No. Exponential case growth wouldn’t work that quickly if it is going to catch. Two weeks would just be 1-2 rounds of expansion. If R0 is above 1.2 or so, you’d give it 4-6 weeks to declare things are going well.

The flu doesn’t start from one case and kill 50,000 people in a month and bomb out health systems. Besides that, they are identical. Even the White House now requires masks.

Masks now required in the White House, which is sensible and follows the CDC recommendations. I hope Trump follows his own rules. It would be a good message for the country to do as he says and does.

I just don't want to let this fear-spreading statement stand. That's not true unless the vaccine developed attacks something in one strain that is much different than another. Most of the vaccines so far have been focused on the spike part of the virus, which is largely unchanged between strains.

Social distancing and health measures are not a sign of weakness. They are attempts to minimize the spread of a virus that has killed ~80,000 people in 2 months. We are all in the infection pool together and even if you're not at risk, as I believe I am not, I don't want to spread it to others who might be more at risk. That should be all of our goal so our health system can maintain itself and at-risk people are protected. There are other tests for $120 from Quest that test for antibodies without a prescription. I have almost no chance of having the virus now so the Rite Aid thing is unlikely to come back positive. The antibody one will also not likely show something but it would have more chance since it will indicate a past infection (if accurate). The prevalence of this in society at large is not going to be that high but even though I'm busy at work, I'm happy to go out give this a try. I'd love to know I'm clear or being a high-risk carrier to others.

States running the show gives this result. For healthcare workers working all day with sick people, who may or may not disinfect the cloth masks, cloth masks are a bad choice. That is different from you in your 20 minutes at Wegmans. It's a limited conclusion.

He called airplanes "flying tubes" in the post I responded to.

Dream a dream. The CDC guidelines are out there. No one is following them, though NYS is closest. PA has a much more restrictive reopening threshold that the SE PA area is not even close to the requirement set by the governor. Philly is running at 10x the goal...surrounding counties at 3-4x.

Most of the NE shut down at the same time. We shut down 3 days before NYC, with no end in sight...the only possibility to phase 1 in SE PA is June 4.

I'll take a trip once my state is open for business and one of the places I'd normally fly to for business like Sweden is happy to accept travelers...and businesses are happy to have visitors. Fear of being in the tube won't keep me from doing it--only practical considerations like being able to do business and being somewhat confident I'm not a spreader will keep me home.

^^^Yes, lecturing.^^^ *** Yesterday’s low and probably today’s are very low on deaths. Tuesday through Thursday will be interesting. PA drove a lot of count last week as it dumped a lot of deaths into the week from recounted data. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us top out in the 1800s or less this week.