shoshin

Why not?

Whatcha drinkin?

If a vaccine comes out soon and was available, recommended by the CDC and doctors, would you take it? Assume there will be Twitter rumors about autism and other noise like that floating around because of course that will be true.

Hospitalization rate will control how fast we can reopen. Did PCR yesterday, antibody tomorrow.

The Netherlands study has a lot of promising info in it.

That's great. I'll note that compilation sheet, while an interesting exercise, is mixing sample size and sample groups like that doesn't make a total clusterF of the data, so I wouldn't trust that average as far as I could throw it.

When rights conflict with other rights, sometimes one loses. This topic has been beaten to death--not a shot at you--I just don't feel like listing all the examples again. Sufficed to say, not all the rights under the Constitution always peaceably coexist in normal times (can't yell fire in a crowded movie theater despite your right to free speech) and in war/pandemic times, there can be even more conflicts.

GA has been level and we are early into the cycle. If things look level in a few more weeks after the virus re-establishes itself with the population that had been locked down and we avoid another exponential growth starting from a bigger pool than the first go around, that will be great.

On a ventilator, your chances are really bad. That's a Hail Mary moment.

We are already getting the right to assemble back, and that's just with the current example we are all living through. I've given other examples when you bring this up.

It's stunning that deaths are more or less level in spite of the shutdown (and it's due to Covid I expect). You would expect a shutdown would drive total deaths WAAAAAY down.

This was the China story. It's in many places...AJ was just the link I grabbed. Nowhere is "back to normal" and I doubt anyone thinks that to be the case.

https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/ Korea, China, and Japan have good testing and tracking so they are shutting down regions to contain the recurrences. It's something to watch. We don't have adequate testing and tracing here so outbreaks could grow into something uncontainable again--that's the concern. We need this to be THE reopening, not the first of many cycles of shutdowns and reopenings.

There are two sentences in my response. See the first.

List of countries that have re-instituted lockdowns after reopening: China, Korea, Lebanon, Japan, Iran, Singapore Germany is one to watch. That's a bad trend.

The Remdesivir studies are also increasing in scope, as scientists look to pair it with other treatments since its effectiveness is incomplete. As of yesterday, everyone in the WH has to wear a mask. I'm not sure why there wasn't distancing between the people on stage all along but it seems like they are starting to do the right thing.

I was having a conversation with a fellow business owner the other day. One of his biggest concerns is liability. He is "essential" as an accountant and wants to reopen his office but he's afraid of getting sued if someone gets sick and dies. I imagine his concern is widespread. There has been some talk about business protections from liability but I haven't seen much progress on that front. It could be a really important piece of reopening. My business can be remote and we're not essential so I am not supposed to open until phase 2 (green) in our area. Since we're still at phase 0 (red), I haven't given this much thought yet. An article on the debate. On one side, businesses want protection. On the other, you want to make sure businesses are taking some precautions. There's a middle ground to get this passed. Congress should have been pushing for this in first two funding rounds.

It looks like the TB vaccine studies are starting. We discussed this somewhere in the depths of this thread and hopefully the testing shows something promising. The correlative data points (countries that still give TB vaccines show lower spread and mortality) right now could be due to a lot of factors so actual tests will be important to see if the vaccine itself helps or not. It may prove to be another Covid treatment dead end but it's something to watch. The idea here is not that it will work to keep everyone safe like a Civid-19 specific vaccine, but it may crank up the immune response enough that we respond better and faster to Covid, keeping it more manageable.

Twitter science is often perceived as better than actual science. Finding a source to promote a preconceived notions is all that matters. There's an article cited by here that says cloth masks are ineffective in hospital settings for health care workers. Patients aren't wearing them in the study. The HCWs are exposed all day to hundreds of sick people. No tracking of cleaning or changing masks. And that study is extrapolated to justify a belief that masks are useless. The CDC says to wear them. the White House requires them. An article gathering tens of papers noting how effective they are to stem spread gets dismissed. It's a faith that hot and itchy masks make no difference. It is reminiscent of the creationists who revel in finding something that confounds evolutionary biologists and seize on it as evidence that evolution is wrong. It's an anti-science bent.

People live in the most population dense place in the world, in giant apartment buildings with hundreds of people...and they get Covid-19. According to that article, that's evidence that social distancing doesn't work. Nice logic there.

Last week was probably actually a pretty good week. PA dumped a few hundred old deaths into each of several days last week--drove a lot of the numbers.

Everything is always BREAKING. Makes me mental too. What they also are saying is that things will be gradually relaxed. The 3 months is more for the expected window for some version of the orders to be in place, which is probably true for most places. I see the Cal State U system will be online in the fall. That sucks. My daughter is a high school senior--she and her classmates are watching those decisions with a lot of apprehension. They already missed Senior year and graduation--first year of college is looking unlikely to be on campus though the risk is so low that it makes me nuts. Good for my pocket to save 20K in housing expenses, bad for the college experience.

Good luck on CA. Their standard for opening offices: "Leave it up to the states," they said. All the buildings will be closed. No worries.

Doom and gloom sells for sure. But look to Germany for a country doing a lot of testing and a pretty compliant reopening to see what we may see. Like Italy and Spain were good predictors of when we could expect to peak, Germany will be a decent measure of the optimistic end of what we can expect on reopening.

When I saw the thread, you were the latest post. I was making the larger point that as long as we are wearing masks in tighter settings and washing hands a lot, we are doing what we need to do for the most part.