shoshin

Did you type this from your cell phone or laptop? That report was horribly done but generally described how the Trump intel agencies use publicly available sat images to reach conclusions about certain activities in China and Iran. Isn’t that the kind of thing our intel services are supposed to be doing when dealing with secretive regimes? The horrible report conflates what the Trump intel person said with photos of the Statue of Liberty and BLM protests, none of which the Govt woman mentioned. Just an observation about the quality of the news you are giving credence to. You might want to try a more critical eye.

Off topic but I'd say Harris is getting it easily.

NYC is not open, even if many people are out on the streets. The examples you give a tiny portion of the city's lifeblood. NYC will be fully open (god knows when) when all the offices are back in business and mass transit is transporting people into and out of the city in huge numbers...Broadway is open, MSG, etc. The steps in between will be the telling ones: Indoor dining, more offices open, transit begins to pick up.

Yeah but NYC has not yet really reopened. And once it does, it will take several cycles of potential disease to see how it's going (not the 14 days that people keep saying--that's not enough time to see the exponential nature of growth). The fall will be a different question.

Agreed RE numbers. It's why I asked the question. I don't think anyplace that got hit hard initially has yet to see a second wave. I'm not saying it can't or won't happen but there's no data point for it yet unless I'm mistaken.

It has most definitely not been "yawn." And ~9-10% unemployment for the foreseeable future is also not "yawn."

I'm asking if anyone can think of any. There's plenty to fear about high hospitalizations but it's unknown what will happen with reopening/the fall. Will we see future hospitalization overload or will it level? Will the fall be like fall 1918 or more like summer 2020? You think it's over. I don't know. I'm just trying to read the tea leaves based on the places that were hit hard and reopened before us, and it doesn't seem like they are having spikes (yet?).

Those are currently counterexamples to what I'm asking. Asking if anyplace has had a big second wave after the first (yet). Summer may see the downtrend that the Spanish Flu had but I'm still curious about this.

Asked this over at PPP too but there seem to be more Covid-knowledgeable people (though less discussion) here: Has anyplace that got hit with an initial hard first wave seen a true second wave yet? I ask this not to make an argument but just to see the numbers: (1) Nate Silver has lightly posited (not with certainty) that the case rises happening in the US are mostly being driven in areas that never really had a first wave. Yes, they are reopening, but when you look at a place like AZ, it never got hit initially so this is its first big exposure. (2) In the EU countries that have reopened a few weeks ahead of us, have they seen a spike up? Answer seems to be no. It's something to watch, along with the anecdotal reports from Italy and the UPMC medical system that healthcare professionals are seeing far fewer critical patients after that initial crush of patients.

For places that got an initial wave, have any of them had a big second wave? I don't think so, but I'm curious if anyone else can answer that.

Could just be noise. Stay tuned.

I linked other data on this before. Here’s more from the state’s largest health system. Your opinions are incorrect. Follow the numbers and frontlines.

If you're going to make claims, please provide links. Here are some % pos. numbers for Florida, AZ, and NC. Note: I do not think % positive matters much one testing levels out but that's a different topic...even using it in the way you intend doesn't show what you hope it does. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/florida The cases...if it will let me post all the graphics (could not get AZ in--it has the biggest spike up): The trends are not established yet and maybe they will come back but we are seeing increased cases and hospitalizations in many of those states. Most predictions around this have sucked but watch the numbers. "It's over" is a declaration that sounds a lot like Trump saying we were going from 15 to ZERO. Way way way too early.

Just watching the numbers. The areas that opened first are seeing rising cases. Politically, more closures seem extremely unlikely. I have always been against the closures. But that doesn't mean we should not watch what's going on with eyes wide open. Maybe the cases are going up because those areas got spared initially. Maybe they are going up because they are reopening. But to avoid noticing is to put your head in the sand.

"At its peak, Arizona's intensive care unit beds were 78% in use. As of Monday, 76% were occupied. Arizona's Director of Health Services Dr. Cara Christ asked that hospitals "be judicious" in elective surgeries to ensure bed capacity. " And NC has more hospitalization for Covid right now than it ever has. It's the stat to watch on reopening. Let's not pretend it's going swimmingly.

GG, SoCal, and Magox declare that the crisis is over. I hope you're right, and I'm not sure what "over" means as I assume you still expect a 500+ deaths per day for the next 7-8 months. But I do hope you're right. I'm just hoping we stay open because I don't think closing was ever a great idea. The economy can't take closures.

Hospitalization is the limiting resource, though I have first hand accounts in my house that my wife says PPE is still not adequate in the largest hospital system in PA, so even that remains an embarrassing shortfall.

The rising cases from reopening in the south and west should be a lesson. It takes a few weeks for the exponential growth to show a spike. Cases are rising everywhere after opening.It will take 6-8 weeks to see the rise if we use the south as an indication. AZ has its largest hospital system at capacity. NC has rising cases. UT has hugely rising cases. The fall could be tough.

This is probably misleadingly confusing aymptomatic with pre-symptomatic. Pre-symptomatic people have been shown to spread the virus and cause outbreaks. So I doubt this is the good news we hope it sounds like.

FL's testing is up too but it's definitely not been as rosy as some were saying just a few weeks ago. The entire south has seen rising cases and in AZ, the hospital situation is now officially dire with its largest system operating at 100% capacity. The reopening is not going as well as we had hoped. It's almost like the virus doesn't give a ***** about politics!

Hopefully with improved testing this can be done moving forward if we get outbreaks we can’t stay ahead of.

Some economist took a shot at cost benefit of the protests based on Bedford’s analysis. Not sure I buy all the steps but it is an analytical approach.

If that’s what you think I said, good on you. But you’re wrong. The danger was over-hyped BY SOME. It was mishandled BY SOME. It was also under hyped by some. And it appears to have been handed well by some. Maybe there’s no simple narrative to pull through this. Keep watching the data.

You got that from what I posted? I am watching the behavior of people vs case and hospitalization counts. So far I saw exponential case rises slowed by widespread shut downs. And I see reopenings now being followed by increasing hospitalizations. The initial case spread took a long time to slow post slowdown and it is taking a long time to rise post opening. The numbers pictures will continue to get clearer with time as we reopen more. I did not want to shut down initially. I don’t want to do it again. I’m just watching the numbers and hope hospitals can cope. You are in search of a conspiracy of some sort and prefer that to the numbers. I get that—the numbers can be hard and contradictory and take time to see play out. 3 days won’t show the result of reopening or the protests.