shoshin

A flipside option is to do nothing and pray the hospitals can keep up, which is not even bad science, but faith.

Nothing credible ever said masks are better than placebos in this pandemic. All you found was your simple reading of a study about HCWs in hospital settings. Governor Abbott is singing a different tune these days, likely because having beds is not the same as having caregivers to man the beds. And likely because he now sees the problem up close and personal. If you look at the SE region of TX, their bed usage is getting pretty close to 100%, and if they just have one more week like the one past, they will be at 100%. They can stretch some capacity and get more people in but not a lot. For Abbott to be telling Texans not to go out if they don't need to is not the message of a TX Governor who has any chance of wanting to win re-election--it's the message of a guy who's starting to see a problem brewing. Hopefully the TX rise stops soon and he doesn't have to do more. Gov Abbott: “There remain a lot of people in the state of Texas [and also B-Gal in Buffalo NY] who think that the spread of COVID-19 is really not a challenge. Know this, and that is today, Texas will report an all-time high in the number of cases of people testing positive of more than 5,000. As you pointed out, the hospitalization rate is at an all time high. The coronavirus is serious. It’s spreading in Brazos County, across the entire state of Texas, which is exactly why action is being taken.” “First, we want to make sure that everyone reinforces the best safe practices of wearing a mask, hand sanitization, maintaining safe distance, but importantly, because the spread is so rampant right now, there’s never a reason for you to have to leave your home. Unless you do need to go out, the safest place for you is at your home,”

If your neighbor is a low-case country willing to enact controls similar to yours, no big deal to open borders. No pee-in-the-pool issues. Here, if you're a US state with a low case count and the state down the road is putting up 5K new cases a day, you can't effectively stop the spread of the pee from the high case state to the low case state. This was one of the most repeated criticisms of the state-by-state approach. Make no mistake: No one wanted a one-size fits all national plan. But a single plan whereby decisions were made by regions/areas makes a lot of sense. Or even following the CDC guidelines would have been sensible. We now will wait and see what happens as we reopen. Maybe the spikes will result in very little, or maybe they will be regional and there will be no spread.

Your "point" is senseless but you were so wrong on the masks that it's not surprising. By way of explanation, that's not how you do the math. You do it vs bed capacity. And you do that calculation regionally.

TX Hospitalized with Covid data through 6/22. About ~2.5-3x what it was in early June. This is why Abbott is considering new shutdowns.

I thought restricting travel from China saved millions of lives, no?

European countries have largely closed borders right now. Easy to keep cases low once you've locked ***** down. There have not been any case rises on reopening in Europe. This could be good tracing, protecting vulnerable, and keeping travel from high case areas out (because you can't track those folks as well). I'm not sure the US can replicate that if we have high case states next to low case states and there's travel between them. But your point was why I was asking about the fact that there has been no resurgence anywhere last week.

TX Gov Abbott was floating more shutdowns yesterday, so whoever the "they" is, the group of "them" includes a TX Republican governor and it seems like "they" are mostly concerned about "their" fellow Americans. And I hope to hell no state has to backtrack. That would really be the worst case and an indictment of the stupidity of not having a nationwide vision on this.

I asked this before too. That being said, other places that have gone through a high peak have been able to protect their borders. Here, to overuse this analogy today, we have a pee in the pool problem. What happens in AZ leaks to TX and SoCal. Limited data set on this so far but yes, we have yet to see a rise in a country that had a peak and reopened. And the states that peaked high are only just starting to reopen. But if you're suggesting the worst is yet to come in FL and TX, it may be. I don't know.

Safe to assume that Florida is about to follow Texas and Arizona on hospitalizations so it is worth watching closely. 5500 is an incredible number of cases. Trump is unwilling to come up with a plan so he passes to governors. Many governors won't shut anything down so they leave it to mayors/councils. The covid pee in the pool metaphor at work. Wait until you have a low case state next to a high case one--that little advisory of Cuomo's will be nothing. AZ deaths took a big jump today.* * Edit: PHOENIX – The Arizona health department on Wednesday reported 79 new coronavirus deaths, a single-day high, but most were older incidents reclassified based on information in death certificates.

Texas doubled its bed and cases in the last ~20 days. Now this warning from Gov Abbott yesterday. "If we were to experience another doubling of those numbers [cases and hosp] over the next month, that would mean that we are in an urgent situation where tougher actions will be required to make sure that we do contain the spread of Covid-19," he said. This would be a horrible step backwards and make my initial worst case come to pass: An ineffective shut down followed by more shut downs. Staying open was my preferred approach. A very short shutdown to get PPE ready and make a plan was second. A long effective shutdown an extreme distant third. An ineffective shut down followed by more shutdowns is an absolute worst case, total disaster scenario, especially if we get the pee in the pool scenario where a lack of a national plan now allows cases from the rising states to reinfect the states doing well right as we head to winter. So come on Texas, AZ and maybe soon FL. The rest of the country wants you to be the canary in the coal mine that lives!

SE TX ICU bed usage for Covid is at 585 beds from 354 just a little over 1 week ago. At that pace, they will reach their ICU capacity in 1 week, surge capacity a week or so after. Just by the numbers and maybe there are other places they can put patients. Really good TX regional hosp data site: https://www.click2houston.com/news/local/2020/06/16/this-dashboard-tracks-the-daily-hospital-capacity-for-general-icu-beds-in-the-houston-area/ AZ hospitalizations are up over 100% since the month started: with AZ ICU beds in use for Covid patients also up substantially since the month started (80%ish). https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php FL seems to be lagging on hospitalizations but given the TX and AZ situation, it would be surprising for it to have a different path, though it's possible. https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/06/22/two-charts-show-positive-trends-for-florida-in-coronavirus-battle/ The FL hosp data that I can find kind of sucks balls. Not sure if there is a better spot that gives beds in use and capacity. I don't trust all the random twitter graphs.

D614G has been the dominant variant since March. https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-mutation-coronavirus-infect-human-cells.html Strains of SARS-CoV-2 with the D614G mutation have grown to dominate over time. Data from GenBank, a repository for the genetic study of viral samples worldwide, found no SARS-CoV-2 sequences containing D614G in February. But by March, the mutation had appeared in one-quarter of all sequences, and by May it appeared in 70%, the team noted. Person to person is almost every case, but being inside can't be good.

Deaths closer to flat week on week as DE had a data dump. Still one of the first week-week deaths flat days in a long time. Could be all these cases catching up. Could just be a daily blip.

Real news here but actually fake. There's a website that rhymes with "dopes" that you and half the Twittersphere should use more.

Tourniquet.

Florida updates once a day. They don't trickle it out like some states, today's update is in. It's high, even for a catchup day, but putting any weight into a single day spike in data is a fools' game. You won't know tomorrow either.

Such a pain in the ass for my business interests. I hope this doesn't happen.

You're arguing with someone, but not her. She made this point: As we do more testing in the community, we are able to capture more mild or even asymptomatic infections. This is especially true for routine workplace testing. As younger people have milder disease, this shifts the age distribution lower. If median age drops because of more testing only, we expect: - Increase in number of cases detected across all age groups - Test positivity to drop in all age groups (size of drop depends on which groups are targeted for testing) - No change in hospitalizations And she said this too. You just wanted to get your conclusion out there because there was one point on which you disagreed. Open your mind a crack to multiple things being true, and not all of them consistently fit into a narrative you're creating. The data will not always speak in an unambiguous voice. Explanation 2: Elderly people are more cautious. Median age could also drop if the elderly were protecting themselves better, even with no change in testing. For example, we are preventing more nursing home outbreaks.

I'm pretty sure you didn't read or understand her post, but just knee-jerked to your conclusion. She is explaining the rising positive cases, and gives 3 reasons for why they may be rising, two of which are good news, and one of which is potentially not. You may not believe the third explanation you don't like but it's worth hearing all 3. I agree with her that all 3 have weight and hope her first and second reasons are more right than her third.

It will take 4-6 weeks to see any big rise post protest. That's the exponential effect. But I don't expect to see much. Cases were low in many of those cities, lots of masks, outdoors, younger, etc. Working indoors, no masks will prob have more impact.

Been a bit busy the last few days but I assume some of the summaries under Silver's posts are right and hospitalizations are bouncing off their bottom and starting to rise. Hopefully they don't go up too much. More good stats on the declining average age for positive test patients. Ideally, we see that we can protect the vulnerable and keep the deaths down and hospitalizations under control. An important 2-3 week window now with the next one to come in November. I don't think we will learn a lot between late August and November that we won't know by July 15.

What are you even talking about? Do you just make things up about posters here and keep saying it until you believe it? Who do I lionize since you seem to know me so well? Speak English please.

Please contribute substance to the Covid discussion and not stupid conspiratorial nonsense. Your desire to be consistent in finding a story makes you post really silly things. The real world is usually pretty inconsistent, and people's behavior even more so.