shoshin

I know GG thinks the US can't be compared to Europe and he thinks things here are more like India, but here's an interesting comparison:

Just the last 10 days, more than half the states report official numbers now later in the day to avoid the news cycle.

AZ set a new record (by a bunch) today with 88 deaths, along with a new record high in cases. I don't see any reporting that it was a back data dump on deaths.

Yesterday is about two weeks from the case spikes starting in TX, CA, and AZ. One week from Florida’s. You’d look for deaths to follow cases at 2-4 weeks. Yesterday TX, CA, and AZ had their highest deaths since mid May. Could be a blip (Tuesday’s are always high but this was the highest since May) but watch that 7 day trend starting about now and for the next few weeks. Deaths are no longer coupled in the same way to cases (ratio is much lower, for many reasons: better treatments, younger patients, asymptomatic positives) so this will be the thing to watch. How much will the deaths rise in proportion to the cases? Hospitals in most places still in decent shape but the hospital curves on admissions In those states are yougly.

States with highest death tolls since mid May yesterday: CA AZ TX not huge jumps but also not the continued decline. Watch them now to see how high this rise goes. FL and GA started their case spikes a week after those states so their window to watch opens next week if we are watching 2 weeks out...The trailing death window is probably 3-4 weeks from case rise though—2 is just the beginning edge. Florida will finally start reporting statewide hospitalizations this week. Why DeSantis kept that data hidden, who knows. PA Gov Wolf also held back data he had for weeks. The wrong approach. Deaths at Worldometer much higher than this yesterday. CA data came in late as did others. Total over 700. Maybe not as low as hoped yesterday.

Lowest Tuesday in forever. Today begins the marking of two weeks since cases started rising. So this is now the big window to watch. If not much happens in the next two weeks, this thing needs monitoring come November, but no one can justify a shut down unless there’s a shocking change in the virus.

That’s fantastic. I’d lost track of Georgia.

I agree with him. I overlooked Georgia for that. I think we just need to see if AZ, TX, and FL can weather the hospitalizations. If they can, I don't think deaths will spike particularly. We are headed to the lowest Tuesday in forever--by a lot.

This is the full list of countries whose nationals will be allowed to enter Europe: Algeria Australia Canada Georgia Japan Montenegro Morocco New Zealand Rwanda Serbia South Korea Thailand Tunisia Uruguay *China allowed if it allows Europeans to enter China.

I have heard this trend and am hopeful: We are about sell our 'burb house and move into the city in the next 6 months. Happy to swap out properties at a lower price.

Based on the above graphs, looks like ~2 weeks minimum and closer to 3 weeks. But something appears different so far and hopefully that continues to be the case. Arizona, Texas, and Florida are the test states.

She has a lot of interesting data in this thread. I won't paste it all but if you find these two interesting, click to explore more.

Just trying to keep the numbers clear. You normally are discussing the death counts for the country as a whole and country-wide, yesterday was not the lowest to date. When you mention states, you call them out by name. I was making sure to correct that data point. Either way, next week and the week after will be interesting to see if we start to see rising counts.

What you said was "Yesterday, Monday, the death tally reached a new low point since I’ve been offering this daily report." But it was higher Monday than Sunday, and also higher than just a week ago. Not a huge deal but yesterday wasn't the low.

Not sure where you're getting your data. It was a low day but nowhere notes it as the lowest day to date.

This community should be judged on how it greets and treats new and old posters. There are plenty of places where people can treat each other like crap on the Internet. It's clear that TBD tries to cultivate a good community in TSW* and OTW. PPP doesn't fit in in what it currently is, a haven for bully behavior (at best) and mostly a lack of considerate and thoughtful discussion. *Gameday loss threads excepted

Hard to believe we can’t just have civil arguments here as friends but instead people are calling moderators to act in threads and there’s a bully mentality that aims not to discuss, but mock and belittle. OTW and TSW are really really well done with mods that help create an excellent community. This place doesn’t have to be the way it is but we let it get this way and it detracts from the entire good community of the other boards. TBD doesn’t need this.

Magox am I supposed to put 80% of the board on ignore? See last 3 pages of nonsense?

Create your own board. Problem solved. That is the free market.

PPP brings out the best in people. You don't have to be like this. *** On a Covid note, I'm watching what the colleges are doing with a vested interest in my kid starting this year. Sounds like most schools are going to charge full tuition, rent their rooms out, and teach mostly online. Talk about a terrible decision and a broken model.

That's putting a bandaid on an amputation. The posts get through because everyone engages the most troll-like poster by trying to out-troll them so you see the responses. I've not found ignoring to bring much peace to the discussions. *** On a Covid note, even though it's a Monday, man is the data slow to be released today. Must have been a lot of drinking at the state DOHs this weekend. (Except Florida, they release their data like they are run like a Swiss watchmaker.)

Crusades are illegal? Any other nominees for banning on this ground or just the one? There are a very small handful of people who try for discourse at PPP. But it’s mostly just a regression to a mean here lead by the name callers and ***** posters. PPP was a good idea whose time has past. There are plenty of outlets for political speech. The idea that this is a pressure release is a silly metaphor. TBD would be just fine without it. There are a few threads where discussion attempts to break out and even civil discourse but name calling and trolling usually intrudes even for those. It’s on the whole a negative drain on the community.

It can reduce the length of stays in the hospital but I agree: It fell short of the initial hype.

That's an invitation for an echo chamber. But the amount of professional trolling and volume-pasting is painful, especially since we're all neighbors.