shoshin

RE hospitals, lots in FL, TX, AZ at the moment. No one knows any of those numbers or how long the antibodies are effective. I'd love to think we have a good herd immunity going but I have not seen any conclusive data to back that up. *** To B-Gal RE NJ, it's back into it's "normal" range today so maybe the last two days were some kind of data dump. We could get the 7 day average back to what it was a month ago in just a few more days. A quicker turn than I would have thought would happen.

1000 pages post number 1! You win. There are a few people posting good info in the thread. A lot more noise than signal but at least some signal gets through.

Austin considering putting in place shelter in place rules because hospitalizations are so high. https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/austin-coronavirus-hospitalizations-stage-5/269-f7c8ddb7-1e67-4451-8a8f-f1066b2af8ec This would be the backslide into shutdowns that people said would not happen. I sure hope Texas gets on top of things and doesn't need to do this. One encouraging stat (if you can look at it taht way) is that cases haven't continued to rise and seem level. Do we get a prize at 1000 pages?

He didn't back them out. He was just classifying 35 out of 120 as having come from LTC facilities and the rest from elsewhere.

I see the total for today as 119--that's a big jump for FL. I just wondered if it was some numbers dump or really the new number. AZ is higher today too so maybe it's just the high cases starting to make their way through the process.

Any insight into Florida's deaths spike today Magox? I would expect a climb up not a leap.

NJ has been a little higher for a few days and generally not fallen as fast as NY. PA is like this too...off its high but also still maintaining its deaths count a little more stubbornly. In PA, a lot of the new cases have been in western PA (Pittsburg not Philly)--not sure where the deaths have been happening. There's a virus that ravishes people? Sign me up.

Initially, not likely. It was an unknown virus. Hard to say if having better plans in place would have been more helpful. Agreed. The real question to ask is whether a national strategy (not as is this is often conflated, a national one-size-fits-all approach) would have made a difference. Looking across Europe, it sure seems like it. Ask yourself: Could the places that didn't get hit hard initially have been spared this rise through better communication, a unifying message from leaders on what practices to keep up? It sure seems like it. This Florida hosp trend in the last week would seem to have been avoidable:

You didn't look at the close ups. Plenty of photos of people in masks. Definitely not everyone. But look at the crowd: Not that many people and outdoors. Definitely didn't help. So wait, the virus doesn't play politics? Keep an eye on NJ. Its death rate has been very high lately. I don't have the time or energy to unpack why.

Wrong thread.

Trump staff don't even think the protests lead to cases and then complain that when cases rose after the Trump rally, the media is to blame? Also some cute disingenuousness on the campaign providing masks (that no one wore) and no mention of them removing social distancing stickers from chairs in the Tulsa arena. Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh told CNN, "There were literally no health precautions to speak of as thousands looted, rioted, and protested in the streets and the media reported that it did not lead to a rise in coronavirus cases. Meanwhile, the President's rally was 18 days ago, all attendees had their temperature checked, everyone was provided a mask, and there was plenty of hand sanitizer available for all. It's obvious that the media's concern about large gatherings begins and ends with Trump rallies." Murtaugh provided a link to CNN reporting on research suggesting that Black Lives Matter protests across the country did not lead to a jump in coronavirus cases.

Could be. I've proposed that too. But MN never had a peak before the protests and they were one of the epicenters. Seattle another one that never peaked (they got hit first but controlled it very fast). Large numbers and not in a study (the people who took the test self-selected so you'd expect them to be higher than the general pop) but interesting: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html At a clinic in Corona, a working-class neighborhood in Queens, more than 68 percent of people tested positive for antibodies to the new coronavirus. At another clinic in Jackson Heights, Queens, that number was 56 percent. But at a clinic in Cobble Hill, a mostly white and wealthy neighborhood in Brooklyn, only 13 percent of people tested positive for antibodies. ... As of June 26, CityMD had administered about 314,000 antibody tests in New York City. Citywide, 26 percent of the tests came back positive.

Not much of a rise from them in most places. Maybe the masks helped. Go figure.

Dodged a bullet by not filling the place.

Jersey was high yesterday too. I haven't looked for the county data but I wonder if it's shore counties.

Lack of a national plan now coming to bite us. When CA, TX, FL and others had low cases and the outbreak was confined to the NE, a national plan and a coherent message on masks and distancing could have us largely over this like Europe appears to be. Instead, we are heading into winter with a shitload of active cases. I guess we can now just watch the deaths mount again and see what November brings in fatalities. Optimistically, we can only hope that the deaths fall quickly and don't rise elsewhere, but especially the northeast. If they rise again in the NE, not only did the national "unplan" fail, but it was an unmitigated disaster. Whatever great moment you think is going on is not so important that it's likely taking place in the 70 years you'll be alive.

Like I said, I was posting about the states at the top: CA, TX, AZ, FL.

Things said here within the last week: It's over. It's a hoax. There are no problems in hospitals. It may be going away but any talk of it being over or a hoax is premature.

IT was a weekend spike like always but I was sharing more to show that the leading states on deaths are (mostly) the ones with leading cases.

I've had two as well. It's a nothingburger.

Of course! At the same time, the higher death states are the ones that had higher cases a few weeks ago mostly (not sure why NJ is high) so there seems to be a relationship between high cases, hospitalization, and mortality (SHOCKER!).

990 people who died yesterday could not be reached for comment. It's not a scam. We need to figure out how to stay open while reducing fatalities and not bombing hospitals.

Florida still not releasing good hospital data but it did release some reports. Follows what is happening in TX and AZ. Where it goes from here is anyone's guess but bed availability is decreasing every day. This is not a situation where everything's just like normal. More than four dozen hospitals in Florida reported that their intensive care units (ICUs) have reached full capacity on Tuesday as COVID-19 cases surge in the state and throughout the country. Hospital ICUs were full at 54 hospitals across 25 of Florida’s 67 counties, according to data published on Tuesday morning by the state’s Agency for Health Care Administration. More than 300 hospitals were included in the report, but not all had adult ICUs. Thirty hospitals reported that their ICUs were more than 90% full. Statewide, only 17% of the total 6,010 adult ICU beds were available on Tuesday, down from 20% three days ago, according to the agency’s website. In Miami-Dade - the state’s most populous county - eight hospitals reported their intensive care units were filled to capacity, including North Shore Hospital with 56 ICU beds. The hospital with the most ICU capacity in the county, Jackson Memorial, reported that its ICU was 91% full.

That is some seriously cherry picked data. AZ was at about 70% capacity 6 weeks ago (roughly where it was for months before) and it's now at 90. Lately it's been increasing 2-4% a week. Look at the source data Gal--your Twitter feed is an echo of what you want to see.